Padres vs. Mets Odds, Picks, and Prediction
Padres vs. Mets Odds
| Padres Odds | +124 |
| Mets Odds | -133 |
| Over/Under | 6.5 |
| Date | Sunday, Oct. 9 |
| Time | 7:37 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
On Sunday evening, the San Diego Padres and New York Mets will play the decisive Game 3 of their National League Wild Card series at Citi Field. In Game 1, the Friars jumped out to an early 2-0 lead and never looked back in an eventual 7-1 victory. In Game 2, New York rebounded for a 7-3 victory. This evening, Joe Musgrove will get the ball for San Diego, who will be opposed by Chris Bassitt. Oddsmakers are expecting the Mets to advance, pricing them -133 home favorites on the money line.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where MLB bettors can find value at sportsbooks for Game 3 of the National League Wild Card round.
San Diego Padres
During Joe Musgrove’s first 12 starts, he was firmly entrenched in the conversation for the National League Cy Young award, with a 1.59 ERA, 2.64 FIP, and a 0.92 WHIP. Across his final 18 trips to the hill, he was far less effective – posting a 3.97 ERA, 4.32 FIP, and a 1.21 WHIP. Compared to the early portion of the year, Musgrove’s strikeout percentage regressed by nearly three percent, and his walk rate increased. In one start against the Mets in 2022, Musgrove lasted only 5.1 innings, allowing four earned runs on five hits in a losing effort. He has a difficult task in front of him on Sunday evening.
Offensively, the Friars struggled mightily against right-handed pitching down the stretch of the regular season, ranking 18th in OPS, 25th in ISO, and 14th in HardHit% across the final 30 days of the schedule. In that span, Juan Soto batted only .265 with three home runs. Manny Machado had a .247 batting average and a .769 OPS, which is not bad for a league average player, but nowhere near the standard that we have grown to expect from the talented third baseman. The bottom of the lineup proved particularly inept, with Jurickson Profar, Josh Bell, Austin Nola, and Trent Grisham each having worse than a .650 OPS in that span. Yet, this group managed to tag Max Scherzer for seven runs in the early portion of Game 1 en route to a decisive victory. They returned to earth in Game 2, with only three runs on six hits in defeat. The lefties will have an opportunity for early-game success in Game 3 against Bassitt, but this offense is far from a sure bet to produce on any given night.
As we mentioned in yesterday’s preview, the bullpen is an area of concern for San Diego. Post-All-Star break, the Padres’ arm barn ranked only 10th in FIP, 11th in WHIP, 17th in strikeout percentage, and 22nd in left-on-base percentage. The resurgence of Josh Hader in the month of September was a welcome sign, but a lack of depth behind the talented left-hander made the late innings a constant adventure. In Game 2, this unit surrendered five earned runs in only 5.2 innings of work. This unit is both fatigued and lacking talent heading into tonight’s matchup.
New York Mets
In his first year in The Big Apple, Chris Bassitt was outstanding when pitching at Citi Field – compiling a 3.22 FIP, 23.6 strikeout percentage, 6.2 percent walk rate, and a 1.08 WHIP. Bassitt’s main vulnerability dating back to 2019 has been against left-handed batters. In 2022, Bassitt had a 4.21 FIP and a 1.32 WHIP against lefties, with his overreliance on his cutter and sinker hurting his ability to get outs the second time through the order against opposite handed hitters. Expect Bassitt to have a short leash in this contest against a San Diego lineup that is likely to feature at least five left-handed bats.
The Mets scored only one run in Game 1, but they had plenty of scoring opportunities. The lack of runs was a direct result of going 1-for-11 with runners-on-base, which is a metric that usually counterbalances itself rather quickly. Across the final 30 days of the regular season, New York ranked 4th in OPS, 11th in ISO, 7th in walk rate, 5th in strikeout percentage, and 6th in HardHit percentage against right-handed pitching. This group should be able to put pressure on Big Joe in this spot.
Bettors did not get to see it in Game 1, but the Mets have, arguably, the best bullpen of any team in the postseason. Over the final month of the regular season, New York’s arm barn ranked 2nd in FIP, 6th in WHIP, 2nd in strikeout percentage, 1st in walk rate, and 7th in left-on-base percentage. Edwin Diaz has allowed only three earned runs in his last 43.1 innings of work dating back to May 27th – good for a 0.62 ERA. In Game 2, Diaz was called upon in the 7th inning, delivering another 1.2 innings of shutout baseball before handing the ball to Adam Ottavino. On Saturday, Diaz threw 28 pitches and Ottavino threw 35 pitches – creating fatigue concerns for Sunday. Still, everyone will be available for this arm barn in this pivotal Game 3.
Padres-Mets Pick
Both of these managers will have a quick leash with their starting pitchers tonight. The ability of both of these managers to mix-and-match in the latter frames to create advantageous pitching matchups should operate to limit the scoring opportunities for both offenses. If Musgrove and Bassitt can pitch reasonably well in the early going, this game could turn into an extremely low-scoring affair – take the under.
PICKS: Under 7 (-135)
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