Mariners vs. Blue Jays Odds, Picks, and Prediction

by Nick Galaida (nickgalaida) Last Updated 2022-10-07 19:08:42

Mariners vs. Blue Jays Odds

On Friday afternoon, the Seattle Mariners and Toronto Blue Jays will battle in Game 1 of the American League Wild Card Round. Oddsmakers have these two teams evenly priced, with the Blue Jays listed as slim -130 home favorites on the money line.

Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where MLB bettors can find value at sportsbooks for Game 1 of the American League Wild Card Round.

Seattle Mariners

Since being acquired by the Mariners prior to the trade deadline, Luis Castillo has been excellent posting a 3.17 ERA, 2.91 FIP, and a 1.10 WHIP in 11 starts. However, the results have been anything but linear. In six of those 11 trips to the hill, Castillo allowed two earned runs or fewer. In three of the other five outings, he was roughed-up for four earned runs or more. One thing to watch in this contest will be Castillo’s effectiveness against left-handed batters. After struggling against lefties for the majority of the campaign, Castillo increased his fastball and slider usage in such situations after joining Seattle – making a concerted effort to throw his two best pitches more often. If Toronto sends out their usual lineup, which features eight or more right-handed hitters, Castillo is primed for a strong performance on Friday.

Over the final month and change of the regular season, MLB fans were treated to the J-Rod show, with the talented outfielder posting an incredulous .436 batting average, 1.265 OPS, and a 266 wRC+ from September 1st until October 5th. However, he was not the only member of this Seattle offense that finished the year on a tear. Cal Raleigh and Ty France each turned-in a .752 OPS or better in that span as part of an offense that ranked 9th in OPS and 3rd in ISO against right-handed pitching across the final 30 days of the year. The Mariners have less sexy names than their counterparts in this series, but not much less talent.

Even if Seattle is trailing at the midway point of this contest, they should have an opportunity in the late innings, thanks to a stellar bullpen. Since the All-Star break, the Mariners’ arm barn ranks 8th in FIP, 3rd in WHIP, 8th in strikeout percentage, and 14th in walk percentage as a unit. The ability to limit traffic on the basepaths, and being able to throw the ball past hitters with men-on-base is a nice combination to have in October.

Toronto Blue Jays

In his rookie year and throughout the first half in 2022, Alek Manoah struggled mightily against left-handed batters due an overreliance on his fastball. In the final two months of his sophomore campaign, Manoah radically altered his pitch-mix, throwing his sinker far more often and his slider far less often. The results paid enormous dividends, with left-handed hitters posting a .100 batting average with zero extra base hits against Manoah’s sinker during the month of September. Overall, Manoah delivered a 1.91 ERA, 3.25 FIP, and a 0.99 WHIP across the final two months of the year. On Friday, he will be tasked with slowing down an underrated Seattle lineup, but he is capable of getting deep into this game if he can control the strike zone against lefties.

After a slow beginning to the year at the plate, the Blue Jays finally lived up to expectations in the final portion of the season – ranking 1st in OPS, 7th in ISO, and 3rd in strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching across the final 30 days of the regular season. Since September 1st, Danny Jansen, Bo Bichette, Whit Merrifield, and Teoscar Hernandez each posted an .802 OPS or better against right-handed pitching, with only Jansen and Hernandez having higher than a 16 percent strikeout rate in that span. This is one of the most dangerous lineups in the entire postseason.

Unquestionably, the Blue Jays have the least dependable relief corps of any American League team in the postseason. Since the mid-summer classic, Toronto’s bullpen ranks 17th in FIP, 8th in WHIP, 9th in strikeout percentage, and 8th in walk rate. Across the final 30 days of the regular season, this group ranked 25th in left-on-base percentage as a group. This is any area of concern.

Mariners-Blue Jays Pick

During the regular season, Matt Chapman, George Springer, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Teoscar Hernandez, Raimel Tapia, and Bo Bichette combined to form one of the worst defenses in the league. Conversely, the Mariners had some of the best defensive players at their respective positions, with Julio Rodriguez in center field, Adam Frazier at second base, and Sam Haggerty in left field. Dylan Moore, Abraham Toro, Eugenio Suarez, and Ty France were far from liabilities at their positions too. On the basepaths, Seattle was better than league average in stolen base attempts, compared to Toronto, which ranked 28th in stolen base percentage this summer. The Blue Jays were also worse than league average in extra-bases-taken percentage this year. The fundamentals are often overlooked when betting baseball, but these skills at the margins could end up being the difference in winning and losing in the postseason. Poor baserunning could definitely lead to one or two less runs on the board. Take the under in this spot.

PICKS: Under 3.5 – First 5 innings (-128)