You'll Never Guess Which Team Sharps are Betting on to Draft Tua Tagovailoa
The 2020 NFL Draft is just two days away, leaving online sports betting busy adjusting NFL Draft betting odds and props. There’s no bigger question for NFL mock drafts and oddsmakers than which team will draft Tua Tagovailoa.
On Monday, oddsmakers adjusted their 2020 NFL Draft odds to favor Justin Herbert to be drafted ahead of Tua Tagovailoa. In light of Tagovailoa’s injury concerns and the added uncertainty as teams prepare for the draft with social distancing measures in place, Herbert’s draft stock has risen while Tua’s draft position is becoming ever more in doubt. As a result, online sports betting sites have taken sharp money on teams with longshot odds to acquire Tagovailoa.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
PointsBet received “sharp money on Tua to the Bucs at +8000,” according to a PointsBet representative. PointsBet responded by moving Tampa Bay’s odds to +2500. However, the move was only temporary, and the Buccaneers are back to +7000 two days before the first round of the NFL Draft.
With enticing odds still available, it begs the question: in what scenario would the Buccaneers draft Tua Tagovailoa?
Not only would a team — presumably the Miami Dolphins — need to draft Justin Herbert before Tagovailoa, but other teams like the Los Angeles Chargers, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Las Vegas Raiders would have to give Tua the cold shoulder as well.
The other scenario is that the Buccaneers possibly trade up for Tagovailoa if he falls past the Chargers. This seems even less likely, as the Buccaneers are obviously in win-now mode with Tom Brady. That means the Buccaneers are looking to add an offensive lineman to protect their 43-year-old quarterback (Brady turns 43 in August), or possibly using the pick to boost their defense.
So there’s a series of questions we have to ask before betting on Tua to the Buccaneers:
1) What’s the likelihood that reports of Tua’s failed physicals are as alarming as some suggest rather than tactical smoke and mirrors used to devalue his draft stock?
2 )If it’s not merely smoke and mirrors, what are the chances that the Chargers, Jaguars, and Raiders still pass on Tua?
3) What are the odds the Buccaneers bite if Tua is still available at No. 14?
If you conclude that the Buccaneers have >1% chance of drafting Tagovailoa, then +10000 at DraftKings Sportsbook is where you want to make your longshot bet.
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Jacksonville Jaguars
All signs point toward the Jaguars tanking in 2020 for a shot at Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence in the 2021 NFL Draft. However, over the last week, the possibility that Tua Tagovailoa is available for the Jaguars at No. 9 is becoming more and more plausible.
Previously as high as +8000, the Jaguars’ odds to draft Tua were shortened to +1000 at Caesars Sportsbook on Monday. DraftKings Sportsbooks posted even shorter odds — Jaguars +500.
The Jaguars might have their eyes on Lawrence, who got the best of Tua and Alabama in the 2019 National Championship game, but can they pass on Tagovailoa if he’s on the board when it’s their turn Thursday night?
Unlike the Buccaneers, you’ll no longer find big odds on the Jaguars. But if you still think there’s some value, you can find the Jaguars +850 to land Tagovailoa at PointsBet.
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More Longshot NFL Draft Possibilities for Tua?
New England Patriots
Out goes Brady, in comes Tua? Can you imagine? Some mock drafts are doing just that, not that you should give them much stock. It’s fun to imagine, though.
It would take an Aaron Rodgers-like free fall for the Patriots to have a chance at Tua with their original No. 24 pick or else Belichick would have to trade up.
And as unlikely as it seems, if it did happen, would any of us be genuinely surprised?
Long known for tricks and mind games, Belichick plays football like others play poker: tight-lipped, often in a hoodie, and wearing sunglasses. (Okay, I’ve never Belichick in sunglasses but two out of three isn’t bad.)
The point is none of us would be shocked if the Patriots actually weaseled their way to Tua. Instead, we’ll be left kicking ourselves for not putting the pieces together before placing our NFL Draft bets.
Do you hear that? [Insert Belichick evil laugh here]
If the fall down this rabbit hole left you dazed and convinced, then visit FanDuel Sportsbook to bet on Patriots +2200.
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More 2020 NFL Draft Betting Tips
- Tips to Win Big by Points Betting 2020 NFL Draft Props
- Why You Should Shop US Sportsbooks for 2020 NFL Draft Betting Lines
- 2020 NFL Draft Prop Bets: Who Will Giants Pick?
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