Sunday Night Football Picks: Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers
From Thanksgiving football to postponed games and an unprecedented news-filled Saturday that had significant implications for the DFS and betting slate, Week 12 has been a wild ride to say the least. Sunday will get even crazier during the day games but it should end smoothly with a classic Sunday Night Football matchup featuring the oldest rivalry in the NFL.
Sunday Night Football Betting Odds
The Chicago Bears will travel to a fan-less Lambeau Stadium to take on Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, as head coach Matt Nagy reinserts Mitchell Trubisky into the starting lineup for an injured Nick Foles in hopes of preventing a five-game losing streak.
Unsurprisingly, the Packers are large home favorites, but there are some discrepancies across the online sports betting industry early Sunday morning. Using our NFL Odds page and tool, you would have found the Bears +9 at BetMGM but only +8 at PointsBet.
The betting action is pretty split on this one, with 53% of the money on Chicago and 61% on the Over (44), per Scores and Odds.
These two NFC North rivals haven’t clashed since last December when the Packers swept the season series with a 21-13 victory.
While the Bears try to end a four-game losing streak, the Packers try to avoid a losing streak of their own following a Week 10 overtime loss in Indianapolis. Rodgers is pretty good at avoiding losing streaks. The MVP candidate hasn’t had consecutive losses in his last 31 games. The question here, though, isn’t whether the Packers will win or lose on Sunday night but whether they will cover the point spread.
Both teams have modest records against the spread in 2020: Packers 6-4 ATS, Bears 5-5.
After a few below-average seasons (at least by his standards) Rodgers has found himself in the MVP conversation once again. In his second year operating in head coach Matt LaFleur’s system, Rodgers has thrown for nearly 3,000 yards through 10 games and trails only Russell Wilson in touchdown passes. The new coach and playbook have clearly given the veteran a spark following a few seasons of stagnation under Mike McCarthy. This year, Rodgers is the highest-graded quarterback according to Pro Football Focus.
Green Bay’s offense has been exceptional on third-downs, converting 48 percent of their attempts. Only three teams have been better on third downs, and Rodgers’ efficiency in these situations could make all the difference Sunday night against a tough Bears defense.
As mentioned earlier, the Bears turn to Trubisky (again). The former No. 2-overall pick gets a second chance after being pulled in Week 3 and subsequently losing his starting job. Regardless of who has been under center for Chicago, their offense has struggled to gain yards. They rank 27th in Rush Success Percentage and 23rd in Pass Success.
The good news is that the Bears return running back David Montgomery, which means wide receiver Cordarelle Patterson won’t have to be their lead ball carrier.
Bears vs. Packers Sunday Night Football Picks
The Bears haven’t been able to do much this year, but I think Trubisky filling in for Foles will actually help this struggling offense. Trubisky has proven to be a viable dual-threat when he’s outside the pocket, which has even made him a solid DFS play at times. Nagy can get more creative with the offense than he would otherwise, which is of necessity now that cornerback Jaire Alexander has been cleared to play in Week 12. Alexander will help the Packers keep Allen Robinson in check. Robinson has been targeted at least nine times in all but two games. Meanwhile, Alexander has been one of the top-graded quarterbacks in 2020. Still, I think the Bears surprise the Packers by either keeping this a close game throughout or they get a back-door cover in the final minutes of the fourth quarter.
Sunday Night Football Pick: Bears +8
Bears vs. Packers Props
All odds are from BetMGM.
Allen Lazard OVER 3.5 Receptions – Marquez Valdes Scantling was held out of practice on Friday, which opens the door for Allen Lazard, who returned from the IR just last week. The Packers eased Lazard in during Week 10, but he should be ready for a larger role whether MVS is ready to go or not. And if MVS is out, Lazard will be Rodgers’ no. 2 after Davante Adams.
Lazard +1100 First Touchdown
Tonyan +800 First Touchdown
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