Sonty's Single Entry Series: NFL Week 14
This DFS content is a part of our Premium Content Schedule and designed to help you build better lineups on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo!, SuperDraft, and other daily fantasy contest providers. Access NFL Projections, Expert Rankings, Projected Ownership, NFL DFS Picks, and other Data Tools using this content hub. For our world-class optimizer that offers a suite of tools and information designed to help you crush the competition, please head to LineupHQ!
Single entry is a different type of game from cash games, as they’re tournaments with top-down payout structures; and different from mass-multi-entry play in that we’re firing a single bullet. Yet, the common flaws are usually that the field puts cash-style lineups into single-entry spaces — not enough correlation or leverage; or the field will over-leverage for the size of their contests.
In this space, we’ll take a look at the higher-projected plays and discuss how to use these chess pieces to maximize ROI, using projection with correlation and leverage. The most important dynamic we see at play is that the chalk absorbs far more ownership than in MME contests from the middle tiers of ownership.
First, we’ll look at stacks; then, we’ll go position-by-position.
STACKS
DK CHALK — Vikings-Lions Gamestack
With a 51.5-point total, DET-MIN is gonna flood a solid third of the lineups on DK. It’s in a dome and neither defense is spectacular.
The Vikings side of this all starts and ends with maybe the best WR in the game, Justin Jefferson. Kirk Cousins should be fine, but DET actually has the 17th-best pass defense, according to DVOA, whereas MIN is 24th. Jared Goff being cheaper makes him the easier QB to play. We can use Jefferson or save some money with Goff over Cousins or we can use T.J. Hockenson, who’s dethroned Adam Thielen as the MIN WR2, but it’s clear that we’re using Amon-Ra St. Brown in this construction, because there’s just no one else significantly catching balls for DET.