Stat Factors: Week 9
NFL Advanced Data is more accessible than ever, and with the power of providers like Sports Info Solutions and PlayerProfiler.com, RotoGrinders is here to bring them to your doorstep. Each week, Stat Factors will compare 99 team level metrics and hundreds more advanced player level analytics to bring you key “Stat Factors” that matter for each game. We’ll then break them down and teach you how to empower your decision making for the week using these factors. The best DFS players in the world supplement their process with sports analytics, and we’re here to help you enhance your week of research.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Skewed Matchups of Note
Top 5 TE Fantasy Points Allowed Matchup
Top 10 TE Target Success Matchup
Top 10 TD Per Drive Matchup
Top 10 Pass TD Ratio Matchup
Top 10 Early Down Success % Matchup
Top 10 20+ Yard Pass Success Matchup
Top 10 10-19 Yard Pass% Matchup
Bottom 5 WR Fantasy Points Allowed Matchup
Bottom 10 Yards Before Contact Matchup
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers rank 16th in DVOA offense and have the 5th-graded PFF unit. They have faced the 12th-easiest schedule of opposing defenses. The Carolina Panthers rank 17 in DVOA defense and have the 20th-graded PFF unit. They have faced the 24th-easiest schedule of opposing offenses. Tampa Bay has the advantage here, as this looks like a high scoring affair on both sides.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers rushing attack is off the radar this week, per usual. They rank #23 in rush success rate and have generated 17 explosive runs (Rank 27). They face off against a Carolina Panthers run defense that ranks 7th in rush DVOA and ranks 5th in rush success rate allowed. They also rank #26 in fantasy points allowed to the RB position, and have allowed 20 explosive runs (rank 22). If you want to take the plunge on a dirt-cheap Peyton Barber, the real issue is opportunity cost and ceiling. His median projection places him as a positive value on DK, priced at just $3,6000 thanks to projected MS carries around 65% that aligns with the work he received last week. Barber has already received 60% of carries for this team inside 10 yards, and will not have to compete with Ronald Jones this week for that work. It’s a low-end dart throw at best.
In the passing game, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are in a much better situation for DFS. They rank #8 in pass success rate and have generated 34 explosive passes (rank 3). They’ll be facing a Carolina Panthers pass defense that ranks 20 in DVOA and ranks 13 in pass success rate allowed. They also rank #22 in fantasy points allowed to the QB position, and #29 in points to the WR position. Deep threats are in a decent spot, as the defense has allowed 27 explosive passes (Rank 13) this season. Both DraftKings ($5,500) and FanDuel ($7,100) have severely underpriced Ryan Fitzpatrick in a matchup that should be very conducive to Tampa Bay vertical passing attack. The Panthers defense skews towards allowing passing TDs and the same can be said for the Tampa Bay offense. Mike Evans is a question mark after getting in a limited practice Thursday. I expect him to go, and he currently leads the WR group in the ever-important end zone targets stat. Godwin isn’t far behind in terms of targets inside 10 yards, and is priced appropriately to be included in game stacks. In terms of exploiting the vertical deficiency in the Panthers passing game, Evans (31.8%) and Desean Jackson (25.3%) have the air yards profile and share to do the most damage. We should be stacking this team up and down.
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