Sunday Night Football Betting Picks: 49ers at Seahawks
The NFL regular season ends on Sunday night when the 49ers meet the Seahawks in Seattle. Both teams are still vying for a divisional title with scenarios still in play for both teams to be the top seed in the NFC. Considering recent injury concerns, online betting sites peg the 49ers as short favorites on the road. Will the Seahawks pull off a home upset and secure an opening home game?
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Sunday Night Football Betting Picks — San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
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Spread: San Francisco 49ers -3
59% of bets backing San Francisco, per VegasInsider.com.
Over/Under: 45.5
53% of bets on the over.
Playoff Scenarios
The Seahawks and 49ers are playing on Sunday night for the NFC West. A San Francisco victory locks up the top seed in the playoffs and grants the 49ers home-field advantage throughout. That scenario is pretty straight-forward. A San Francisco loss drops them down to the fifth seed and puts them on the road next week.
On the Seattle side of things, a few things could happen. If Seattle beats the 49ers on Sunday night, they are guaranteed at least the three seed. At the minimum, Seattle would get one home playoff game next weekend. If both the Packers and Saints lose today, albeit wildly unlikely, and the Seahawks defeated the 49ers, the Seahawks would move all the way up to the top seed. If the Seahawks beat the 49ers and only the Packers lose, the Seahawks would earn a first-round bye.
Regardless of what happens in the afternoon, both teams will be a full go for Sunday Night Football.
Injury Report and Analysis
The Seahawks lost their entire backfield by the end of Week 16 with both Chris Carson (hip) and C.J. Prosise (arm) both being knocked out for the remainder of the NFL season. Travis Homer will take over the bulk of the backfield work tonight for the Seahawks and should be on daily fantasy players’ radar for DraftKings Showdown lineups. Marshawn Lynch and Robert Turbin both signed this week but will not be ready for a meaningful workload.
The 49ers will be without Dee Ford and Jaquiski Tartt for the Week 17 contest. Otherwise, San Francisco will have all systems go for the highly consequential final game of the regular season.
The line for this game opened with the Seahawks as one-point home favorites. Since then, the game was bet all the way to +3.5 at one point on DraftKings Sportsbook and now rests at the current +3 number. The lack of Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny in the backfield is clearly a big blow to a team that wants to establish the run all game. Further, the Seahawks may find themselves exposed to a San Francisco defense ranked third in the NFL in sack percentage (8.94%). Russell Wilson is certainly going to take some hits if he is forced to drop back and pass thirty times.
That said, the four-point swing is either an indication of a bad opening line or an overcorrection by the public. The game will still be played in Seattle with both teams highly motivated to earn better playoff seeding. The Seahawks were able to win outright on the road in San Francisco in Week 10 in an overtime thriller that was lost with a missed kick by a replacement in overtime. The Seahawks victory on the road left open the path to a divisional crown. I am not sure how comfortable I am laying points on the road in Seattle even without a pair of running backs.
The Sunday Night Football Pick
The over is 7-2 in San Francisco’s last nine games and 4-0 in their last four against the NFC West. Despite being a highly regarded defense, points are being scored. The 49ers have allowed an average of 35.3 points per game over their last three games and are the second-highest scoring offense in the NFL at 30.2 points per game. Public perception of the 49ers is that they are a stalwart defense that limits the opposition. The total has moved down by 1.5 points since opening at 47. In a game that will be played hard until the final snap, I think this trend continues and points are scored in a Sunday Night thriller. Give me the over.
The Pick: Over 45.5
Sunday Night Football Betting Picks — First Touchdown
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George Kittle +950
Tyler Lockett +1050
Emmanuel Sanders +1300
Sunday Night Football Player Props at Monkey Night Fight
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Here are my favorite picks from Monkey Knife Fight for Sunday Night Football:
Jimmy Garoppolo Over 250.5 Passing Yards
Russell Wilson Over 245.5 Passing Yards
Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images