Sunday Night Football Betting Picks: Packers at 49ers
Sunday Night Football is a doozy as Week 12 nears closing with a pivotal NFC game. The Packers are 8-2 after defeating the Panthers in Week 11. The 49ers righted the ship with a late victory over the Cardinals to bring their record to 9-1. Both teams are still fighting for playoff spots and playoff positioning. Who will triumph on Sunday night?
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Sunday Night Football Betting Picks — Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers
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Spread: San Francisco 49ers -3
49% of bets backing San Francisco, per VegasInsider.com.
Over/Under: 47.5
58% of bets on the over.
Oddsmakers consider this game a pick’em with the 49ers holding the three-point home-field advantage. Both teams appear to be legitimate contenders in the NFC despite being neck-and-neck with teams in their own division. Every game down the stretch is vital to both teams as the difference between a wild card berth and divisional victory is the difference between home or away, or potentially a bye.
The Packers offense is certainly shaped differently this season as Green Bay seems to be content to run the football more than previous seasons. In 2018, the Packers under Mike McCarthy and Aaron Rodgers ran the ball 20.8 times per game. This season, the Packers average 24.3 attempts per game. Aaron Rodgers is not tasked with as much and the Packers’ backfield leads the NFL in fantasy points per game for running backs.
Speaking of running the football, the 49ers would love nothing more than to give their stable of backs as many carries as they can handle. San Francisco carries the ball 34.9 times per game — second only to the Baltimore Ravens who feature Lamar Jackson on the ground. The 49ers will attempt to expose a Packers’ run defense that allows 126.9 rushing yards per game on the ground.
So, where is the difference-maker? Aaron Rodgers is better than Jimmy Garoppolo? The 49ers pass defense allows a measly 4.9 yards per pass attempt while the Packers allow 7.4. The 49ers’ defense boasts an 11.75% sack rate while the Packers sit at the bottom of the league in that department. Points may be tough to come by tonight for the Packers.
The Sunday Night Football Pick
At the current spread, I am going to lay the three points with the home team. The 49ers are imposing on defense and could give Aaron Rodgers fits. The Packers’ defense is solid but might find stopping the 49ers’ ground attack very difficult. I like this line here but won’t be interested if it gets bet to 3.5.
The Pick: 49ers -3
Sunday Night Football Betting Picks — First Touchdown
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Tevin Coleman +600
Davante Adams +1000
Ross Dwelley +2000 (hinges on the availability of George Kittle)
Sunday Night Football Betting Picks —Player Props
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Here are my favorite picks from Monkey Knife Fight for Sunday Night Football:
Jimmy Garoppolo Under 281.5 Passing Yards
Aaron Rodgers Over 260.5 Passing Yards
Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images