Sunday Night Football Betting Picks: Patriots at Texans
Week 13 approaches the final whistle as the New England Patriots journey to Houston for an important AFC matchup with the Texans. The Texans remain in a fight for the AFC South Crown while the Patriots want to keep adding wins to a potential home-field advantage resume… again. Can the home team pull of an upset on Sunday night?
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Sunday Night Football Betting Picks — New England Patriots at Houston Texans
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Spread: New England Patriots -3
62% of bets backing New England, per VegasInsider.com.
Over/Under: 46.5
76% of bets on the over.
Houston versus New England opened with a 4.5-point spread and has been bet down to -3 despite most of the tickets backing the Patriots. The Patriots (10-1) are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight road games. Consequently, the Texans are 1-5 against the number in their last six home games.
The Patriots feature a defense that has been wildly prohibitive in 2019. Per GridironIQ the Patriots are the top-ranked fantasy defense against quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers. They lead the NFL in opponent points per game (10.8) while allowing a second-best 4.4 yard per play. The Patriots’ prowess can be attributed to this stifling defense as the passing offense has rested in the bottom half of the league in yards per attempt, completion percentage, and quarterback rating. While Tom Brady shows his age, his defense is showing out.
The Houston Texans will need to make up for a much more average defense with some scoring… somehow. The Texans average 24.1 points per game on the season with a much more robust 8.0 yards per pass attempt from the arm of Deshaun Watson. Watson, a much more dynamic player than Tom Brady, will need to carry the Texans’ offense by making big plays against the stalwart defense. Jason McCourty will miss his second straight week at CB for the Patriots. Perhaps, the loss of the veteran or some timely rushing plays by Deshaun Watson can be just what Houston needs for the home upset.
The Sunday Night Football Pick
Despite the loss of McCourty and playing this game in Houston, I struggle to want to bet on the Texans tonight unless the line moves the other way. Given the discount on the Patriots at -3, I prefer the favorites in a game where the defense will likely star. Tom Brady will probably score just enough points to cover this number as the Patriots move to 11-1. Give me the road team.
The Pick: Patriots -3
Sunday Night Football Betting Picks — First Touchdown
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Sony Michel +750
DeAndre Hopkins +1050
Benjamin Watson +2200
Sunday Night Football Betting Picks —Player Props
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Here are my favorite picks from Monkey Knife Fight for Sunday Night Football:
Tom Brady Over 275.5 Passing Yards
Deshaun Watson Under 240.5 Passing Yards
Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images