NFL Week 13 Lines and Betting Picks at Online Sportsbooks 2020

by Matt Schmitto (schmitto) Last Updated 2020-12-06 17:06:50

It’s been a wild couple of weeks in the NFL but it looks like things will largely carry on as originally planned with only slight deviations if necessary — at least for now. Among some of the craziness witnessed in Week 12, the Broncos played without a quarterback in a game where oddsmakers gave them a 1.5-point second-half team total, the Falcons were on the winning end of a nearly 40-point blowout, and the Philadelphia Eagles managed to pull off a wild backdoor cover. To see what I got right and what I got wrong, click the link below.

NFL Week 12 Picks Review

Note: The first two rows include picks from the Week 12 article only

• ATS and Over/Under: 5-2
• Props: 6-4
• Thanksgiving Picks: 2-0
• Overall Week 12 Record: 13-6

NFL Week 12 Betting Trends

• Away teams 7-8 ATS
• Underdogs 10-5 ATS
• Over/Under 6-9

2020 NFL betting Trends

• Away teams 89-87 ATS
• Underdogs 100-76 ATS
• Over/Under 88-85

NFL Week 13 Betting Lines

In Week 13, the Saints will try to protect the top seed in the NFC as they travel to Atlanta as merely three-point favorites, the Browns will try their best to slow down Derrick Henry, and the Rams and Cardinals clash in a NFC West divisional showdown.

Before we make picks for each game on Sunday, take a look at NFL Week 13 lines across the sports betting industry.

Early NFL Week 13 Lines and Betting Picks

Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins

Last year people were betting on whether the Dolphins would go 0-16; this year we’re betting on the Dolphins as 11.5-point favorites. Of course, some of that is the result of the Bengals losing Joe Burrow and turning to Brandon Allen at quarterback. But there’s no question the Dolphins, at 7-4, have overachieved in 2020. They aren’t only in the wild-card hunt, but they’re in contention to win the AFC East, currently only one game behind the Buffalo Bills.

I really don’t find the huge Week 13 spreads very appealing but I think laying the points against the Bengals is the play. The Dolphins have a top-ten pass DVOA and the second-best scoring defense in the NFL thanks to cornerbacks Byron Jones and Xavien Howard. The talented secondary in Miami ought to give Allen the kind of fits the Giants failed to. Meanwhile, Fitzpatrick has shown he can score bundles of points, and the veteran quarterback gets the nod he might some help from running back Myles Gaskin who could return from a knee sprain that kept him out for four weeks.

Update: Tua Tagovailoa will get the start Sunday. I originally picked the Dolphins -11.5, but I would stay away from it now and take Under 43 points instead.

NFL Week 13 Pick: Dolphins -11.5; UNDER 43

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans

Deshaun Watson will have to manage the offense without his top receiver, Will Fuller. Fuller was suspended in Week 13 for the remainder of the season after testing positive for a banned substance, leaving Watson throwing to the likes of Brandon Cooks, Keke Coutee, and tight ends Jordan Akins and Darren Fells.

The Colts opened as 2.5-point favorites at the beginning of the week and are laying 3.5 points to the Texans as of Friday afternoon. +3.5 points is a half-point too much, even if the Texans are missing their top receiver.

Also worth noting is that Watson has rushed for over 30 yards in three of the four games he’s played against the Colts so far in his career. His rushing prop at William Hill is Over/Under 25.5 yards.

NFL Week 13 Pick: Texans +3.5; Watson OVER 25.5 Rushing Yards at William Hill

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears

Who would have thought Adam Gase would keep his job longer than Matt Patricia? Well, that’s exactly what happened following an embarrassing Thanksgiving loss to the Houston Texans.

The Lions parted ways with Gase and GM Bob Quinn on Saturday, and offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell will take over as he tries to motivate the 4-7 Lions for the final few weeks of the season. If he’s lucky, he’ll have weapons like wide receiver Kenny Golladay, Danny Amendola, and running back D’Andre Swift return to help him win his head coaching debut against the Bears.

Chicago running back David Montgomery is set up for success against a Lions defense that has struggled to stop the run throughout the 2020 season. Detroit’s 23rd-ranked rush DVOA has allowed the fifth-most rushing yards thus far. Coupled with a horrendous pass defense, only two teams have a worse defensive DVOA according to Football Outsiders. Of course, whether it’s Trubisky or Foles behind center, we know the Bears won’t want to risk passing the ball.

Nagy’s lack of confidence in his quarterbacks and aversion to the passing game is one reason why I want to PointsBet OVER 72 rushing yards for Montgomery.

Fresh of his return from an injury that sidelined him in weeks 10 and 11, Montgomery rushed for 103 yards on merely 11 carries against the Packers. The Bears weren’t able to lean on Montgomery as much as they wished because they trailed by double digits from the second quarter onward. However, rather than playing 8-point underdogs the Bears are 3-point favorites in Week 13.

NFL Week 13 Pick: PointsBetting Montgomery OVER 72 Rush Yards

Added: Montgomery OVER 15.5 Rush (-130) Attempts at BetMGM

Jacksonville Jaguars at Minnesota Vikings

Dalvin Cook was limited in practice on Thursday, and Vikings OC Gary Kubiak has said that Cook is “just kind of beat up right now.” Cook claims otherwise but I expect the Vikings to act with caution when it comes to their $63 million investment. At 5-6 and playing as double-digit favorites against the Jaguars, the Vikings really have no reason not to be frugal with arguably the NFL’s best running back. That’s why I like Under 107.5 rushing yards for Cook at William Hill. For what it’s worth, GridironIQ projects Cook for 94 rushing yards on Sunday.

NFL Week 13 Pick: Cook UNDER 107.5 (-115) Rushing Yards at William Hill

Las Vegas Raiders at New York Jets

I don’t know if I have the gall actually to bet on the Jets, but that’s where my money would be if you twisted my arm. Instead, I’m watching for Darren Waller receiving prop. The Jets defense gives up a ton of fantasy points through the air. Though most of those points come from wide receivers, the Jets are still allowing the ninth-most fantasy points to tight ends.

Waller has been quieter than expected this year but he’s still capable of going off for a monster game. There’s no better opponent for him to do so against than the New York jets.

NFL Week 13 Pick: Waller OVER 49.5 (-115) Receiving Yards at William Hill

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons

Taysom Hill will make his third consecutive start for the Saints (8-2), but this time the current NFC leaders won’t have the luxury of facing a quarterback-less opponent. Their Week 13 matchup is against NFC South rivals, the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons look to build moment from a 43-6 drumming of the Las Vegas Raiders. Atlanta has a surprisingly good run defense, which will help them against Hill, Kamara and Murray. We’re getting 3 points at BetMGM as opposed to 2.5 at FanDuel. I suggest you take it.

NFL Week 13 Pick: Falcons +3 at BetMGM

Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans

I’ll be honest, I don’t know what the hell to with this betting line. One week I think the Titans are overrated then they do their best to prove me wrong the next week. Meanwhile, the Browns haven’t had dominant showing such as the couple that we’ve seen from Tennesse, but the Browns have also played in horrendous weather for nearly a month of their season. Some of their recent game environments make it very difficult to assess where the Browns and quarterback Baker Mayfield currently stand. However, what we got last week was a glimpse at the Browns passing offense without OBJ during a clear forecast and a reasonably close game. The result? Mayfield FEEDING wide receiver Jarvis Landry. Landry hauled in eight catches on 11 targets and gained 143 yards, making it one of the biggest games of his career.

The Browns are now 6.5-point underdogs at BetMGM, which means we are likely to see a game scrip that will feature more of the Mayfield-Landry connection. You have to lay a lot of juice (-160) to bet Landry Over 3.5 receptions but I still think it’s +EV. I also like Over 51.5 receiving yards.

I think we can see another monster game in this spot, so keep an eye on PointsBet Sportsbook as they release player props through the weekend; it’s another excellent opportunity for a PointsBet wager.

NFL Week 13 Pick: Landry OVER 3.5 Receptions (-160); OVER 51.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers

Aaron Rodgers made me regret betting against the Packers last Sunday night. Green Bay will get a similar matchup and slightly larger spread against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 13.

Opening -9 to begin the week, the line has moved closer to the lookahead line (-7.5) over the last few days. On Thursday, you can find the Eagles +8 or +8.5 across the sports betting industry. That’s still enough points for me to back the Eagles, who should be able put some pressure on Rodgers and dependably lean on the run while handing the ball off to Miles Sanders and Boston Scott. The Packers will win this game but it might be a stretch to say they win by at least 9 points.

NFL Week 13 Pick: Eagles +8.5

Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals

Kyler Murray has been dealing with a nagging shoulder injury to his throwing arm. That’s less than ideal when you’re facing Jalen Ramsey and dodging Aaron Donald. I’ve consistently argued that the Cardinals are overrated this season; I’m not changing my tune now.

NFL Week 13 Pick: Los Angeles Rams -2.5 at BetMGM

New England Patriots at Los Angeles Chargers

Bill Belichick versus Anthony Lynn in a game that is essentially a pick’em. The decision should be easy…not so fast.

The Patriots have superior coaching which certainly goes a long way but they also have the 31st-ranked defensive DVOA. The Chargers are 12th in offensive DVOA, and Austin Ekeler, in his second week back, is sure to help the Chargers in the air and on the ground offensively.

The Chargers finally get a W in a close game, though they’ll need to slow down Cam Newton and Damien Harris to do so.

NFL Week 13 Pick: Chargers +1

New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks

Veteran quarterback Colt McCoy steps up to replace injured Daniel Jones. The matchup against the Seahawks shouldn’t scare him, but the same can’t be said for the Giants defense which has its hands full trying to contain DK Metcalf.

Is it far fetched to think McCoy might actually be an upgrade, at least as a passer? Eh, probably. I still say the Giants muster up enough offense with McCoy behind center to send this Over 47.5 points.

NFL Week 13 Pick: OVER 47.5 Points

Washington Football Team at Pittsburgh Steelers

I’m sorry, but I’m just not buying the undefeated Pittsburgh Steelers. It’s one of the reasons why I bet on the Ravens +10.5 on Wednesday despite them missing various key players that game. As I mentioned, the Steelers nearly lost to the Garrett Gilbert-led Cowboys a few weeks ago. In fact, they’ve nearly lost a lot of games. Good for Ben Roethlisberger and head coach Mike Tomlin for pulling through in these close games, but that doesn’t make me a believer.

The NFL pushed this game back to 5 PM on Monday, a schedule change that I happily welcome — it’s not like I have a better way to spend my time Monday afternoon. However, the Steelers are on a short week while the Washington Football Team is well-rested after their Thanksgiving Day win in Dallas. Big Ben will face plenty of pressure against a young, talented defensive line. Washington has a lot to play for and the Steelers are bound to stumble soon.

NFL Week 13 Pick: Washington Football Team +8.5

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs

Since making his first NFL start as a rookie in Week 17 of 2017, Patrick Mahomes is a perfect 6-0 straight up and against the spread when facing the Denver Broncos. This is the largest number yet but I’d rather take Mahomes -13.5 than Drew Lock +13.5, no question.

The Chiefs have failed to cover the spread the last couple of weeks, but I’m hoping they get back on track and make some money for their loyal bettors Sunday night. We’ll have more on this game this weekend; in the meantime, read why the Chiefs are the next great sports betting dynasty.

NFL Week 13 Pick: Chiefs -13.5

NFL Week 13 Betting Card

Again, be sure to check back as we update this article with more Week 13 lines, game previews, news and betting picks between now and Sunday.

Image Credit: Imagn