Rays vs. Guardians Odds, Picks, and Prediction
Rays vs. Guardians Odds
| Rays Odds | -102 |
| Guardians Odds | -116 |
| Over/Under | 6 |
| Date | Saturday, Oct. 8 |
| Time | 12:07 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
On Saturday afternoon, the Tampa Bay Rays and the Cleveland Guardians will play Game 2 of their American League Wild Card series at Progressive Field. In Game 1, Tampa Bay briefly led 1-0, but a 6th inning two-run home run by Jose Ramirez ended up being the difference in the contest. In Game 2, the Rays will send Tyler Glasnow to the hill, looking to avoid elimination. Cleveland will put their faith in Triston McKenzie as they look to advance to the next round of the playoffs. Oddsmakers have these two teams evenly priced, with the Guardians listed as slim -118 home favorites on the money line.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where MLB bettors can find value at sportsbooks for Game 2 of the American League Wild Card Round.
Tampa Bay Rays
Saturday will be Tampa Bay’s 11th consecutive road game, having not been home since September 25th. Following an off-day on Monday, September 26th, the Rays flew to Cleveland for three games, then immediately traveled to Houston for three games, before ending the regular season in Boston. The Rays had another off-day on October 6th in preparation for the Wild Card round, but make no mistake – this is a group of human beings that is dealing with an unusual level of fatigue.
Tyler Glasnow will get the ball for this weary group with their season on the line. Glasnow has been one of the better starting pitchers in the league since 2019, posting a 2.80 ERA, 2.87 FIP, and a 0.97 WHIP in that span. However, he missed the second-half of the 2021 campaign as he recovered from a partially torn ulnar collateral ligament and flexor strain in his throwing arm. Glasnow returned to the field in AAA on September 7th, and allowed only one earned run in 7.0 innings of work. He joined the big league club on September 28th, and has allowed only one earned run across 6.2 MLB innings since being activated. Still, he is not particularly well-equipped to have a strong outing in this one. This will be a proximity matchup for Glasnow after seeing the Guardians only 10 days ago. Coming off of a serious injury, facing a high-contact lineup (for the second time in less than two weeks), does not scream success story.
A success story for Glasnow could be particularly difficult to achieve if the Rays continue to struggle with the bats. Across the final 30 days of the regular season, Tampa Bay’s offense ranked 29th in OPS, 28th in ISO, and 21st in HardHit% against right-handed pitching. On Friday, the Rays managed only three hits against Shane Bieber and Emmanuel Clase. The top three spots in the Tampa Bay batting order combined to go 0-for-12 with six strikeouts. Expect this group to struggle again in Game 2.
Any potential path to victory in this spot for Tampa Bay is seemingly attached to their bullpen. Since the All-Star break, manager Kevin Cash’s arm barn ranks 9th in FIP, 5th in WHIP, 11th in strikeout percentage, and 1st in walk rate as a unit. Cash did an excellent job preserving his high leverage arms over the final week of the regular season, and used only Garrett Cleavinger in Friday’s loss – meaning that he has all of his top weapons rested and available at the first sign of trouble behind Glasnow.
Cleveland Guardians
Prior to 2022, there was no shortage of pundits forecasting a future for Triston McKenzie in the Cleveland bullpen. The former sixth round struggled to a 4.95 ERA and a 4.70 FIP in his first full season as a big league starter, and questions about his frame – 6’5’’, 165 pounds – only raised further questions about his body’s ability to handle a Major League workload. This summer, McKenzie threw a career-high 191.1 innings, delivering a 2.96 ERA, 3.54 xERA, 3.59 FIP, and a 0.95 WHIP. He showed no sign of fatigue late in the year, with a 2.27 ERA, 2.73 FIP, and a 0.87 WHIP across his last 11 outings. Rested after an abbreviated start against the Kansas City Royals on October 3rd, McKenzie is poised for a strong performance in Game 2 in a favorable matchup.
The primary concern for Cleveland on Friday was the fact that their offense had struggled mightily against southpaws down the stretch of the regular season. The concerns manifested, with the Guardians only managing two runs in a narrow win. On Saturday, this group should have a much better day at the plate. Since the All-Star break, Cleveland’s offense ranks 7th in OPS, 21st in ISO, 13th in walk rate, and 1st in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. Expect another high-contact effort from this lineup, which will give them an opportunity for good fortune on balls in play.
“(player-popup #shane-bieber)Shane Bieber”:/players/shane-bieber-351838’s ability to pitch into the 8th inning in Game 1 has positioned Manager Tito Francona to have no usage problems heading into Game 2. Emmanuel Clase was the only member of this arm barn used on Friday, and he only needed 11 pitches to record four outs. Clase had not pitched since Wednesday, so he should have no limitations the rest of the weekend. Since the All-Star break, the Guardians’ bullpen ranks 1st in FIP, 2nd in WHIP, 2nd in strikeout percentage, and 2nd in walk rate. This is, arguably, the most talented relief unit in the entire postseason.
*Rays-Guardians Pick *
As bettors saw on Friday, the Rays’ offense leaves much to be desired against right-handed pitching. Even if McKenzie does not have his best game, there is plenty of talent available in a rested bullpen for the Guardians. Similar to Friday, the forecast shows strong winds blowing in towards the first base dugout near first pitch. Cold temperatures, good pitching, and anemic offense promise to result in another low-scoring affair between these two teams – take the under.
PICKS: Under 6 (-110)
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