The Fantasy Grout, Week 12 - Thanksgiving Slate
Thanksgiving is a weird holiday. It’s a day filled with gluttony, but loosely based on the idea that we all need to say “Thank you.” It seems like the underlying notion is that if you have to say “Thanks,” you might as well get your “money’s worth” before you do. “I’m not going say thank you for the food, until I’ve had enough to feed a small refugee camp. Even then, I better have leftovers to take home as well.”
The gluttony isn’t limited to food either. Have you ever been out in your hometown on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving? “Hey, old friend. I’m thankful we get to see each other tonight, so let’s drink enough to not remember we did.” Also, what other holiday systematically gobbles up an innocent bystander day of the week like Thanksgiving? “Before I thank you for one day off, I’m taking seconds! Friday, come with me.”
Then, there’s the football. “One game of football? Nah, we’ll need two. Cowboys and Lions, please. You know what? Before I thank you for those two games, I’m going to need a third game. Thanks. Oh, and while you’re at it, can you stagger these games throughout the day? I trying show my family I’m thankful for having them. Nothing says ‘Thank you’ quite like sitting on the couch for half-a-day straight.”
This weird week is not limited to life. DraftKings’ slates are … unusual. You can play Thursday. You can play Sunday. You can play Sunday with the Thursday Night game included. But you CANNOT play all sixteen games on one slate. I’m taking my cue from Draftkings this week, and slicing up The Fantasy Grout like a roasted turkey. Below, you will find the low price players from the Thursday slate you can use to fit in those high priced studs. Then, check back later this weekend for even more Grout, ya glutton!
(Also, I wrote this week about some of the PROs and CONs of all of the legal hubbub in DFS. I wanted it to exist after Thanksgiving hangover had subsided, so I broke it off into its own article, rather than leading this one. You can find it here. When you uncle starts needling you about how DFS is screwed, have him read the article on his phone. Then, while he’s distracted, grab some more pie.)
QUARTERBACK
One of my themes for the week, and frankly going forward, is that you can’t trust the red and green numbers anymore. With any sport, team play improves or declines over the season. With the savagery that is the NFL, that is especially true. That green “26th” represents the play of a rookie in his first game, who is now 10 games in, along with several veterans who are now on the IR.
Four of the six Thursday signal callers are priced where we can afford them. Of the four, one has badly injured weapons and another has Carolina’s defense across the line of scrimmage.
MATTHEW STAFFORD, $5,800 VS PHI – Both quarterbacks in this game are in play, but I lean toward the one playing at home. Stafford’s lack of a single game this season with passing yardage that starts with the digit “3” continues to be disturbing. That said, you can’t be too bummed about the 282 he put up last week, when you consider no quarterback, outside of the Sunday night game, crossed the 300-yard threshold last week.
If yardage is a little shaky, at least you can count on Stafford passing for touchdowns. They won’t be rushed in, at least. The Detroit running backs, as a collective, have more receiving touchdowns this year (3) than rushing ones (2). Heck, Stafford had half as many rush TDs last week as the Detroit backfield has had for the year. Vegas over/under lines imply the Lions will be the second most gluttonous team on Thanksgiving, scoring-wise, and it all runs through Stafford.
Lastly, the Eagles pass defense is bad, and worse of late. We know they didn’t give up 300 yards passing last week, as they didn’t play the Sunday night game. What they did allow was five passing touchdowns to five different Tampa Bay receivers. In fact, the 12 QB TDs they’ve ceded over their last four contests is 2nd to only New Orleans. That “Have the Eagles quit on Chip Kelly” segment on ESPN was not a ringing endorsement of their defensive play either.
RUNNING BACK
If Matt Forte plays, something that looks likely, two of our six starting running backs will be outside of our Fantasy Grout budget, Forte and DeMarco Murray.
JONATHAN STEWART, $5,200 AT DAL – If every Fantasy Grout player was a dish on your Thanksgiving spread, Stewart is the turkey. The chalk-turkey. Eat it.
His workload has been incredibly consistent, carrying the ball at least 20 times in six straight. He’s sprinkled in a catch or two as well, just for seasoning. In that span, he’s averaged 4.2 yards per carry (Thanks to Cam’s rushing threat) and scored five times (Thanks 4.1 red zone scoring attempts per game, third highest in the league).
Then, there’s the Cowboy rush defense. They have been playing better than that green “27th” indicates. Then again, there’s no great target today, as far a rush defenses go, so the Cowboys are the path of least resistance. (That is, unless you include getting dessert first, while everyone else is in line for Turkey. Pro tip!) If the main way Dallas “defends its defense,” is by playing keep-away. With the Panthers stout unit opposite them, I don’t see that happening.
THEO RIDDICK, $3,500 VS PHI – If you’re looking at recent data, you can see the Eagles “11th” and know that no team has given up more rushing yards to running backs over the last five weeks than Philadelphia’s 632. Given that they only played four games over that span, while ten teams have play five games, it’s all the more impressive in its ineptitude.
The thirty-three to thirty-five hundred dollar question is which Lions back should you deploy to take advantage of that deficiency? For me, I’m using Riddick. Detroit has varied RB usage of late, featuring Bell and Abdullah at different times, while Riddick’s role has remained the same. He’s getting targeted. A lot. Pairing him with Stafford makes for a sneaky little GPP play, but his workload is the most “cashy” of the Lions triad.
(Using Abdullah in a tournament and hoping the Lions decide to show off their new 2nd round racecar in front of their home Motor City crowd isn’t a terrible idea either.)
WIDE RECEIVER
Five of six teams have a wide-out priced above our $5,000 threshold. That leaves “WR2s,” and whatever you call the Panther platoon, at our disposal. (Am I the only one that thinks “Ginn Brown (your) Funchess Cotchery” sounds vaguely like a threat?) That said, with all the injuries in Chicago, we might be able to slip a “provisional WR1” into our lineup at a pretty cheap price.
MARQUESS WILSON, $3,900 AT GB – If I say “The Keenan Allen Game,” of which game do you think? Ah, that one where he had 14-for-157 on 15 targets in three quarters. Me too. That was against Green Bay. So was Demaryius Thomas’ 8 for 168 game. Also, the one where Carolina’s sad set of wide receivers went for 220-and-2. In two games since, the Packers have been less bad, but that’s like saying “I had a meal smaller than Thanksgiving dinner.” Oh really, because they are all smaller than that.
With Old Mother Cutler’s receiving cupboard bare last week, Wilson got seven targets, good for 27% of the non-back share. This week, injury has plucked Martellus Bennett from out of the cupboard, and Alshon Jeffery is questionable again. For Old Mother Cutler, the entirety of his Thanksgiving feast might be Wilson, with some mustard on it to cut through the cold Lambeau air.
GOLDEN TATE, $4,700 VS PHI – Tate has no 100 yard games this year and one total touchdown. The cranberries of receivers, right? Much like cranberries at Thanksgiving, Tate is always on the field (87% of snaps on the season). Tate did get 8 receptions for 73 yards on 11 targets. A good batch of cranberries? Sometimes, you have to get creative. With cranberries, the obvious answer is to add vodka. With Tate? Add the Philly pass defense. The Eagles are tied for 2nd with 1.75 WR TD/game over the last five weeks. That’s enough to get you fantasy drunk!
TIGHT END
This worries me. Usually, at the $4,500-or-below price point, there are a scant few “startable” tight end options. For this three game slate, there are a couple. That makes me worry what it’s going to look like when Sunday rolls around. For now, let’s feast on this nice Thanksgiving Day Grout tight end spread!
ZACH MILLER, $2,900 AT GB – For the record, this is the “other Zach Miller,” the one who played originally in Jacksonville. The “original Zach Miller” is still in Seattle. This is also the Zach Miller that had that diving, one-handed touchdown Monday night against the Chargers, few weeks back. He’s also the Zach Miller that made you say “Wait, that back-up tight end from the Bears scored again?” two weeks ago. He’s also the “Zach Miller” that got six of Jay Cutler’s 26 non-running back targets last week. Oh, and he’s the “Zach Miller” you should start this week as well.
“Defense Vs. Tight End” is not that helpful, as different teams use their tight ends wildly different. In fact, some just don’t use one at all. That said, Green Bay has allowed a touchdown to a tight end in four of their last five games, and three straight. As inertia goes, tight end scoring streaks in motion tend to stay in motion.
Plus, is there anything that says “Thanksgiving” more than winning by going for (the Bears) seconds (stringers)!