The Lineup Lowdown: NFL Week 8 Edition
If you’ve spent any time in the RotoGrinders forums and the weekly NFL thread then you know doubt know who CleverGroom is and he provides take after take (most often right and always based on solid statistical analysis… but as with most analysis, no one is infallible) and is a well respected member of the RotoGrinders community. Insightful and humorous, he knows his football so I thought we’d focus on his thought processes for this weeks Lineup Lowdown. He provided a breakdown of his THU-M cash game lineup as well as his main slate lineup where he split exposure on a few key plays.
To quote Jalen Richard, “I was poo butt today …”
QB: Russell Wilson
DangeRuss had no weather concerns. His opponent was badly depleted on defense, coming out of a bye, and all but cancelled their final practice due to Bob McNair’s demoralizing remarks. This was an easy call given the positive signs we’ve seen from Russ and the Seattle passing game, the dormant run game, and the attractive salary.
RB1: Austin Ekeler
When you’ve got a chance to lock up Austin Ekeler as your RB1, you lock up Austin Ekeler as your RB1. I didn’t take Melvin Gordon to be healthy. He was certainly in the dog house with Anthony Lynn after last week’s performance, and had been ceding work to Ekeler since the NYG game—especially passing work, which is how we attack the wounded Patriots. The return of Branden Oliver was a concern I was willing to overlook.
RB2: Matt Forte / Jordan Howard
Forte is an all-weather guy going back to his Soldier Field days. Like Ekeler, his opponent was weak to pass-catching backs, and the weather figured to funnel more volume his way. With Howard, I expected the Bears to feed him the ball 20+ times in any game script, and I expected him to find success against the suspect Saints run defense.
WR1: Amari Cooper
I was on Cooper in cash in Week 7, so I’m well aware of his game-breaking potential. I wasn’t willing to lose to him in the event that he saw continued slot usage against a maimed Bills secondary. The weather looked nowhere near strong enough to stop this game from shooting out.
WR2: Devin Funchess
Tampa figured to see some of the highest winds in the morning slate, but I couldn’t pass on the spot. The Bucs came into this week allowing the most DKFP to the position on the Sunday slate, then lost their top two corners. They didn’t have a pass rush to mute Cam early. My only question was Funchess vs. Benjamin, where I was happy to take the discounted salary and ownership.
WR3: Doug Baldwin / Deonte Thompson
I don’t shy away from correlation, since I typically play nothing but H2H in cash. Baldwin gave me a stack with Russ and allowed me to stack up the mid-tier WRs I coveted on the slate. Thompson felt strangely comfortable, given his demonstrated rapport with TyGod and the injuries to the Oakland secondary, but his high ADOT and anticipated winds made a hedge appealing.
TE: Hunter Henry / Jimmy Graham
My expectation was that the Patriots would key off of Keenan Allen and/or MG3. I hoped they would stop those guys if they could stop anybody (an open question), leaving the ultra-reliable Horse Henry and sneaky Ekeler to feast. Graham gave me an alternate stacking option with Russ, and with trade rumors emerging, I wondered if the Seahawks would showcase his improved RZ involvement. My one regret was passing up Travis Kelce.
FLEX: Le’Veon Bell / Ezekiel Elliott
The bitter pill here was pairing Bell/Cowboys and Zeke/Seahawks. I sucked that up on the basis that it was weird, and I like weird. Bell struck me as a literal must-play on the full slate. I liked Shady just fine, but didn’t have much use for his salary relief, and hoped that people would overthink this spot for Zeke. It was not a chase to bet him against a depleted run defense, a shattered offensive line, and a brewing storm.
DST: Cowboys / Seahawks
I would’ve enjoyed playing Eagles or Bengals, all other things being equal, but a value’s a value. The Seahawks hosted a fraudulent, distracted rookie QB whose stats I took to be a product of positive variance and matchups. The Cowboys were playing in poor weather, with a revitalized pass rush, against a backup offensive line. Paying down and splitting the ticket allowed me to hedge a high-variance position.
CG was saved from total disaster by strong outings from Wilson, Zeke, Graham, and the Seattle/Dallas DST’s in the late games. You have to give credit to CG for thinking outside the box as not many cash game players would play the likes of Austin Ekeler but he’s felt for awhile that Ekeler was carving out a role and thought it would be more prominent here. It wasn’t. Deonte Thompson also didn’t strike me as a cash game play (liked him in GPP’s) and CG sensed that with the hedge play. I like looking at different roster constructions for cash games and this was certainly a more volatile cash game lineup than I’ve seen since doing the Lineup Lowdown’s but it also had some upside built in with safety so I don’t think it’s necessarily bad… just different… much like the creator of the lineups itself. Thanks for sharing your thought processes CG and we appreciate all that you contribute in our forums!
Bonus Lineup Review
I’m not a cash game player typically as I love the chase of the big prize in GPPs. I follow the 80-20 rule… 80% of my weekly volume in GPPs and 20% in cash games and most of my cash games are in single entry and three-max 50/50’s and double ups. Here’s a quick look at my cash lineup for the week – one I entered solely in single entry double ups.
This was my worst cash game performance of recent as I am barely above the 100 point mark with Leveon left to play. Still looks like I will cash though so I can’t complain too much. I thought Dalton at his price and matchup was a cash game lock – I generally faded him in GPP’s though due to expected high ownership as I didn’t think he had massive upside. Ingram is going to continue to be a cash game lock for me as long as his price is under $8K. Like CG, I was torn on the decision between Benjamin and Funchess but thought K.B. had more TD upside so went with him. I fell for the Doctson price and got saved by a measly 1 yard TD from that being a total bust. I loved Sanu in a match up against an adequate but susceptible Jets defense that I felt would focus in on Julio – that didn’t disappoint. Hunter Henry, on the other hand, did. I loved the volume he’d been getting and thought he had good potential to get in the end zone. Oops. Forte I thought had a high floor given his pass game work and was cheap. I thought the Seahawks would give up some points to Houston but thought they could get some sacks and turnovers while doing so and I liked the cost savings they provided from the like of the Eagles. Le’Veon… well if I can get him in, I’m going to. Every week.