Three Sneaky Home Run Calls: Monday, April 29th
Nothing accrues more fantasy points than home runs, this we know. But what is even better than rostering a player who goes yard? Rostering a player who goes yard that not a lot of other DFS players have in their lineups. The goal of this article is to find some sneaky home run calls with the help of some of our most useful RotoGrinders tools, such as MLB Weather, MLB Starting Lineups, and Ballpark Factors.
HOME RUN CALLS
1) Jesus Aguilar, Milwaukee Brewers
Opposing pitcher: Kyle Freeland
FanDuel price tag: $2,000
FanDuel position: C/1B
Projection systems are going to love Aguilar today because of his bare minimum price tag, but I am still calling it ‘sneaky’ considering he has yet to hit a home run in 85 plate appearances this season (after a 35-piece in 2018). Aguilar is projected to hit cleanup tonight at home in Miller Park with the platoon advantage against Kyle Freeland.
Now you might be asking: why would I want to roster a guy who hasn’t done anything this season? And my answer to that would be that Aguilar has been pretty unlucky this season. If we look at PlateIQ, he has hit the ball hard in almost half (46.7%) of his 28 plate appearances against LHP this season, with a 26.7% line drive rate. However, his BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is at a crazy low .067. There is just no way he can continue to hit the ball this hard and keep getting out.
I will note that the groundballs (46.7%) are outweighing the flyballs (26.7%) in the early going in 2019, but I expect that to correct a little bit going forward. In 151 plate appearances against LHP in 2018, he posted a 37.5% flyball rate. Against a groundball pitcher like Freeland, we want guys who can lift the ball in the air. Aguilar has a track record of showing he can do that, so I expect him to put an end to his home run drought tonight.
2) Paul Goldschmidt, St. Louis Cardinals
Opposing pitcher: Patrick Corbin
FanDuel price tag: $4,100
FanDuel position: C/1B
Goldy against a lefty and a guy who finished in the top 15 in home runs in 2018. Real sneaky, Meansy!
But when we factor in ownership, are DFS owners really going to roster Goldy against a pitcher who has looked as good as anybody to start 2019? A quick glance at PlateIQ shows that Corbin has struck out 30% of the righties he has faced this year while inducing 48% groundballs. But I also see a .182 ISO allowed, 36.5% hard contact, and 40% flyballs.
It is the hitting environment here at Nationals Park that is the real ‘sneaky’ reason I like Goldy to go yard tonight. For one, you can see in our Ballpark Factors that this is a tremendous park for righty home runs. On top of that, an initial glance at our weather page at RG shows a nice breeze blowing out to left.
Goldy obviously has the skills to make Corbin pay for the amount of hard contact he allows. I am looking for him to send one out tonight in Washington, and you will probably get him nice and low owned too.
3) David Dahl, Colorado Rockies
Opposing pitcher: Zach Davies
FanDuel price tag: $3,700
FanDuel position: OF
I think Dahl has a great chance to send one deep against Davies tonight. If we go back to that Ballpark Factors page, we see that Miller Park is a great park for lefty home runs. Not quite as good as Coors Field, but close!
According to PlateIQ, Dahl has posted big numbers in 268 plate appearances against RHP since the start of 2018: .380 wOBA, .267 ISO, 25% line drives. Now I’m sure Coors Field inflates those numbers a little bit. But again, Miller Park is still a great park for lefty power in its own right.
Davies throws a ton of sinkers, but he has given up a surprising amount of flyballs to lefties so far in 2019 (42% of the 51 plate appearances). If Dahl is able to lift one of those sinkers, I think we ultimately see him rounding the bases tonight.