Three Sneaky Home Run Calls: Monday, July 15th
Nothing accrues more fantasy points than home runs, this we know. But what is even better than rostering a player who goes yard? Rostering a player who goes yard that not a lot of other DFS players have in their lineups. The goal of this article is to find some sneaky home run calls with the help of some of our most useful RotoGrinders tools, such as MLB Weather, PlateIQ, and MLB Ballpark Factors.
HOME RUN CALLS
1) George Springer, Houston Astros
Opposing pitcher: Griffin Canning
FanDuel price tag: $4,500
FanDuel position: OF
A Coors Field game, wind blowing out in Wrigley, and a few other great offenses against subpar pitchers with weak bullpens (Red Sox vs. Thornton; Indians vs. Norris) should mean that no one is going to be spending $4,500 for George Springer.
That being said, Angel Stadium has been one of the best parks in the league for home runs the past few years. And while opposing pitcher Griffin Canning gets a decent amount of strikeouts against righties (26.3%), he also gives up a lot of hard hit flyballs in that split according to PlateIQ (48.4% flyballs; 41.9% hard hits). With Springer’s heavy ground ball lean (46.4% GB%), we always like taking him against heavy fly ball pitchers.
Considering Springer is the seventh most expensive hitter on FanDuel tonight, ownership should be extremely low on him. With a .273 ISO in the split this season, the power for Springer is absolutely still there.
2) Gary Sanchez, New York Yankees
Opposing pitcher: Blake Snell
FanDuel price tag: $3,800
FanDuel position: C/1B
Like Springer, Sanchez is another big name that will get overlooked on this slate. Seriously though, who is going to use their C/1B slot on a catcher facing one of the best pitchers in the league?
We know Sanchez has the power. That is evident by his .293 ISO in the split this year on 51.4% fly balls and 45.7% hard hits. And the pitch type data in PlateIQ looks promising as well, as Sanchez has great numbers against two (fastball and change-up) of Snell’s three main pitches.
In 20 batted ball events against 94-96 MPH fastballs from LHP since the start of 2016, Sanchez has a .407 ISO.
In 38 batted ball events against change-ups from LHP since the start of 2016, he has a .385 ISO.
There is obviously all sorts of strikeout risk here with Snell’s elite strikeout skills and Sanchez swinging for the fences every time up. But all it takes is one (or maybe two?) mistake for Sanchez to make Snell pay.
3) Rhys Hoskins, Philadelphia Phillies
Opposing pitcher: Clayton Kershaw
FanDuel price tag: $3,900
FanDuel position: C/1B
Well, we might as well keep this going with another big name in Hoskins. Springer, Sanchez, and Rhys: real sneaky, Meansy!
However, this matchup against Kershaw is going to keep ownership minimal on Rhys tonight. But Kershaw now isn’t the Kershaw of old. His strikeouts this season are all the way down to 23.3%. Nowadays, Kershaw is much more about elite command and inducing groundballs.
I am guessing it would surprise you to learn that Kershaw has given up 42.8% hard contact in 299 plate appearances to righties this season. And while he is great at getting those aforementioned ground balls against righties (52.3% GB%), Rhys is just the kind of hitter to counteract those with his 46.4% fly ball rate and 30.4% line drive rate against LHP this season.
Throw in a 46.4% hard hit rate, and you can see why he has posted a .333 ISO in the split this season. With Citizens Bank Park being one of the best parks in the league for right-handed home runs according to our Ballpark Factors, Rhys has a sneaky good chance of taking Kershaw deep tonight.
You can follow Andy Means on Twitter @ameansy