Three Sneaky Home Run Calls: Monday, July 22nd
Nothing accrues more fantasy points than home runs, this we know. But what is even better than rostering a player who goes yard? Rostering a player who goes yard that not a lot of other DFS players have in their lineups. The goal of this article is to find some sneaky home run calls with the help of some of our most useful RotoGrinders tools, such as MLB Weather, PlateIQ, and MLB Ballpark Factors.
HOME RUN CALLS
1) Yasiel Puig, Cincinnati Reds
Opposing pitcher: Chase Anderson
FanDuel price tag: $3,400
FanDuel position: OF
Hopefully the fact that Puig does not hold the platoon advantage makes him fly under the radar a little bit tonight, and not to mention that Miller Park is better for left-handed power (but still above average for righties).
However, if we dig a little deeper, we see that opposing pitcher Chase Anderson is a reverse splits pitcher. Here are his splits from the 2018 and 2019, respectively.
2018
Versus lefties (327 plate appearances): .301 wOBA, .159 ISO, 20.5% K%, 9.8% BB%, 40.9% FB%, 34.9% Hard%
Versus righties (317 plate appearances): .338 wOBA, .239 ISO, 19.2% K%, 7.9% BB%, 45.5% FB%, 38.6% Hard%
2019
Versus lefties (153 plate appearances): .231 wOBA, .129 ISO, 22.9% K%, 6.5% BB%, 46.6% FB%, 33% Hard%
Versus righties (176 plate appearances): .379 wOBA, .236 ISO, 23.3% K%, 9.1% BB%, 39.1% FB%, 45.2% Hard%
Per PlateIQ, Puig’s ISO split in 613 plate appearances against RHP since the start of 2018 is .250. Sure, there is some strikeout risk here, but isn’t as much of a concern for us when we are home run hunting. And hopefully Puig wears the sleeveless uniform again like he did yesterday. The Intimidation Score on that would be bright green in PlateIQ if we tracked it.
2) Matt Chapman, Oakland Athletics
Opposing pitcher: Gerrit Cole
FanDuel price tag: $3,400
FanDuel position: 3B
Cole is likely to be a popular option at pitcher tonight; a silly 37.5% K% in 2019 is bound to do that. But that doesn’t mean he isn’t prone to giving up a long ball or two, so it makes sense to go searching for home runs from a few of these A’s to gain a little bit of leverage in tournaments.
With Khris Davis a bit cold over the past month and the strikeout risk for Matt Olson being just a tad too high for my tastes (Cole has struck out 40.8% of lefties this season), I am looking to Chapman. Cole’s strikeout rate against righties is ‘only’ 34.1% this season, and Chapman is the best combination of contact and power against RHP in this Oakland lineup. In 305 plate appearances against RHP this season, he has posted a .381 wOBA and .243 ISO while only striking out 18.7% of the time.
Cole has allowed a home run in 8 of his last 11 starts, so don’t be at all surprised if an Oakland bat or two take him deep. Nonetheless, I would still save this type of play for a large-field GPP, perhaps in a lineup in which you are using a chalkier type of stack.
3) AJ Reed, Chicago White Sox
Opposing pitcher: Trevor Richards
FanDuel price tag: $2,400
FanDuel position: 1B
Reed is a great option if you are looking for a cheap one-off with some power upside. He is built like a house and posted a .235 ISO in 225 plate appearances in AAA earlier this year in the Astros system.
In the little bit we have seen of him with the White Sox this season, he is hitting the ball hard (50% hard contact) and in the air (50% fly ball rate) against RHP. That being said, there is also going to be plenty of strikeout risk here as well.
But there are two things I feel confident in here with Reed. The first is that his ownership is going to be minuscule on this slate. Few are going to want to use a $2,400 first baseman that they have probably never heard of.
And the second thing is that his at-bats against a flyballer like Richards are either going to end in a home run, a strikeout, or a pop up. We know he is going to go up there swinging for the fences, so he has the chance to be a slate winner tonight if he can get a hold of one.
You can follow Andy Means on Twitter @ameansy