ThriveFantasy Props GPP Strategy - NFL Player Props Week 16
Looking for a new way to play? NFL DFS analyst Will Priester is here to help as he breaks down his favorite GPP picks at ThriveFantasy. Sign up with the ThriveFantasy promo code ‘GRINDERS’ to get a $250 deposit match plus free contest tickets!
What is going on Grinders?! NFL Season is always exciting, and this year we are bringing you a weekly article to cover ThriveFantasy’s Prop GPP! Of course, because of my love for props, I’ll be bringing the heat every week to try and help you guys take down 2nd place in the contest. Laugh a little folks! Let’s talk about how this contest differs from your standard DFS contest first.
ThriveFantasy GPP Format
Firstly, Thrive’s GPP is comprised of a list of 20 different props for NFL. Out of those 20 props, you need to select 12 props. The first ten will be the props you want to utilize to score points.
There are an additional two props that are called In Case of Emergency (I.C.E) that you will choose as a backup in case an unforeseen circumstance comes up. It will only count if one of your ten primary props doesn’t play in the game at all. It will not cover injuries. So it’s good for a late scratch during warm-ups, or a late family emergency that a beat writer would not know about in time to inform the public.
Those are the basics.
As for the point system, it s an over/under format, with one of them being able to score more points than the other. The higher the likelihood of the outcome, the fewer points they will give you. The more unlikely the outcome, the more points you will receive.
The fun part (which is part of the strategy we will discuss below) is balancing your risk with reward. If you take all “safe” plays—or what seem to be as close to a sure thing as can be—it may not be enough points to get 1st place. If you take all of the higher-risk props, you also may not earn enough points because you may not hit enough of them to compete. Balancing the risk and reward is the key, just like any other GPP.
But this ain’t yo mama’s GPP…this is Thrive Fantasy baby! Let’s take a look at this week’s key selections that I think we should be targeting.
Key Selections for Week 16 NFL Props
I’m going to work backward here. I will start with who I think gives us the best chance to score the most points against the field and then work my way down to who feels like the sure thing. Let’s ride on this journey together and hopefully sit at the top of the leaderboard every week!
In week 16, we have a split slate so I’m going to focus on the Saturday games so folks can enjoy their Christmas festivities. Let’s dig in.
Jared Goff, 1.5 Passing TDs: Over, 115 points / Under, 85 points
Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions are on a roll. This offense is continuing to put up points at an incredible clip every week. Goff has been playing well with this team and I think against the Panthers he excels yet again. He has a good complement of receivers and I see him getting 2 for sure against a team that could make the playoffs, but at the end of it all is just not good enough.
Pick: Over, 115 points
Derrick Henry, 96.5 Rushing Yards: Over, 110 points / Under, 90 points
Derrick Henry is in the best spot of the week for the running back position. Houston gets gashed every week on the ground and Henry will be rumbling to over 100 yards yet again. Oh, did I mention that it’s December? After a few down weeks, he’s back to rolling over defenses yet again. Sign me up for the over.
Pick: Over, 110 points
Justin Jefferson, 94.5 Receiving Yards: Over, 100 points / Under, 100 points
Justin Jefferson has been a man among boys at the WR position this season against opposing defensive backs. Nothing has been more spectacular than the one-handed catch he made in the Buffalo game. Let’s parlay that greatness into a matchup with the Giants. He seems to go over 100 yards receiving most weeks, and this one should be right on par as well. The volume is always there for him and for that reason alone he will be close. The one big play that he seems to get every week will send him flying past this number.
Pick: Over, 100 points
Closing Thoughts
As you look at this article each week, I’m going to try and put us in a position to take this GPP down. I am not telling you to play exactly the way I play, but the plays that I provide you here will be my core for this tournament each week. I will have them in every single lineup. I am not saying that you HAVE to do this, but you should be able to roll these plays out with confidence knowing that what you see in this article is what you will see in my lineups.
Good luck and congrats on second place! Laugh a little folks!
Image Credit: Imagn