Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets, Prediction, & Pick
Thunder vs. Nuggets Odds
| Thunder Odds | +1.5 |
| Nuggets Odds | -1.5 |
| Over/Under | 236 |
| Date | Fri, Dec. 29 |
| Time | 9:00 p.m. |
| TV | Altitude TV |
On Friday night, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Oklahoma City Thunder will pay a visit to Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets at Ball Arena. Tip off is set for 9:00 p.m. ET.
Ahead of tip off this evening, the Nuggets are favored by 1.5 points on the spread. The total is set at over/under 236 points.
Below, we break down the matchup for both teams and offer a free pick for the betting community!
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Oklahoma City Thunder
Thunder playing first road game since December 16
In 12 road games this year, the Thunder are 8-4 overall and have outscored their opponents by 7.3 points per 100 possessions, which is good enough for the 2nd-best Net Rating in the entire NBA. Still, it is worth noting that this is the first time Oklahoma City has had to travel for a game since December 16.
Looking only at their performances on the road in the last month, the Thunder have been far less impressive, splitting their four games while being outscored by 1.1 points per 100 possessions. Notably, they rank 28th in eFG% and 25th in TS% on the road in those four contests. Their offense could struggle this evening against a formidable defense.
Where Oklahoma City is vulnerable
Overall, Oklahoma City still has two major points of vulnerability – their work on the glass and their ability to defend without fouling. Since November 30, the Thunder rank 24th in opponent rebounds allowed per game and 24th in opponent free throw attempts allowed per game. When these two teams met earlier this month, the Thunder won by one point, but they had one of their best offensive performances of the season in terms of efficiency, while the Nuggets had a below-average night in terms of eFG%. It is likely to be difficult for this group to repeat their offensive success again on Friday.
Denver Nuggets
Denver hoping to continue home dominance
Entering play on Friday, the Nuggets are 13-2 on their home floor this season and have outscored their opponents by 12.8 points per 100 possessions. Last night, Denver defeated the short-handed Grizzlies by 37 points for their second consecutive win on their current home stand and their third consecutive win at home overall.
Dating back to the beginning of last season, the Nuggets are 47-9 at home and have been undeniably one of the league’s best defenders of home court. It is difficult to find a reason to fade the Nuggets in front of their home fans, but injuries always introduce unwanted variance into the equation, which is the case tonight.
Aaron Gordon ruled OUT
Aaron Gordon has been ruled out for tonight’s contest against the Thunder, which is a significant loss for Denver’s starting lineup, especially on the second night of a back-to-back set. In 28 games this season, Gordon is averaging 13.6 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 3.4 assists on 52.5% shooting from the floor.
In his absence, Nikola Jokic is likely to pick up a significant portion of the lost production. According to RotoGrinders CourtIQ, Jokic is averaging 34.9 points, 12.9 rebounds, and 11.1 assists per 36 minutes of action this season with Gordon off of the floor. In those four games, he has scored at least 26 points three times and dished-out at least 9 assists in each contest.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets Prediction
Nuggets Moneyline, -116 FanDuel
Aaron Gordon is a notable loss for the Nuggets ahead of tip off this evening, but Denver is 5-0 without him in the lineup this season, with Nikola Jokic shouldering an extra burden to keep his team competitive in such situations. The Thunder are one of only two teams to beat the Nuggets in the altitude this season, but they are not built to accomplish that feat on a consistent basis. Even without Gordon, Denver has a significant advantage on the glass, which should help them secure a win in this spot.
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