Thursday Night Football Picks: Panthers vs. Texans Odds & Predictions
NFL Week 3 kicks off in the Lone Star State, and sports betting analyst Nick Galaida is here to break down Carolina Panthers vs. Houston Texans odds ahead of Thursday Night Football. For more NFL betting picks, check out Andy Means’ favorite Panthers-Texans player props.
Panthers vs. Texans Odds
| Panthers Odds | -7.5 |
| Texans Odds | +7.5 |
| Over/Under | 43 |
| Date | Thursday, Sept. 23* |
| Time | 8:20 p.m. |
| TV | NFL Network |
The Carolina Panthers and the Houston Texans will battle on Thursday Night Football this week at NRG Stadium. Oddsmakers are expecting Carolina to continue their hot start to the season, pricing the Panthers as greater than a touchdown favorite on the spread.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest when it comes to NFL betting picks.
Carolina Panthers -7.5 (-110)
Sam Darnold has looked like a new man so far in Carolina, leading his team to back-to-back wins to open the year. Still, his overall production has not been much better than league average. Yet, a league average quarterback could be good enough for a Panthers offense that features elite talent in Christian McCaffrey and D.J. Moore. Over half of Darnold’s passing yards in 2021 have come on yards-after-catch, which is by no means problematic. Darnold is going to be an asset when kept clean in the pocket, and if the coaching staff continues to design plays that enhance his strengths while mitigating his weaknesses, this offense will be just fine, even if Darnold never grows into a top-10 player at his position.
It is somewhat difficult to discern just how good Carolina’s defense has been through two weeks, considering that they played a rookie quarterback in Week 1 and a New Orleans team missing quite a few coaches in Week 2. However, we do not need a deep conversation about how the Panthers will look against better teams to effectively predict how they will play tonight. Similar to Week 1, Carolina will get to face a quarterback making his first career start. This defense held Wilson to 258 yards in the season opener, with a considerable amount of those yards coming on a 93-yard drive in garbage time. Expect another stifling performance from Carolina’s defense this evening against an inexperienced signal caller.
Houston Texans +7.5 (-110)
Davis Mills will be making his first career NFL start tonight. Per ESPN Stats and Info, since 2016, quarterbacks making their first career start on Thursday night are 5-1. Nevertheless, those quarterbacks are not created equal, and it is often these types of meaningless statistics that lead casual bettors to make poor decisions with their money. Rather than irresponsibly aggregating data from wildly disparate situations, it makes far more sense to simply evaluate the player who will be under center for Houston tonight.
Mills was horrendous in limited action against the Cleveland Browns after Tyrod Taylor left the game due to injury. He averaged only 5.0 yards per pass play, and had an adjusted completion percentage of only 47.0 percent, according to Pro Football Focus. Mills is unlikely to be helped much by a running back committee featuring David Johnson, Mark Ingram, Phillip Lindsay, and Rex Burkhead. The Texans’ offensive line has done okay in pass protection early this fall, but they have created very little room for any of their running backs to be effective, with few rushing attempts making it much past the line of scrimmage before running into contact with defenders.
Houston is even worse on the defensive side of the ball. The defensive line is arguably the worst of any team in football. Last week, Baker Mayfield was likely unaware of their presence at all, considering that he could count on one hand the amount of times he felt even somewhat pressured in the pocket. Vernon Hargreaves, Terrance Mitchell, and Tremon Smith form one of the worst secondary units in football as well.
Simply put, this is not a roster built to win many games—and things could be even more difficult this evening, trying to integrate a new quarterback into the starting lineup on a short week. Quarterbacks making their first career start on Thursday night are likely to be 5-2 since 2016 after the conclusion of tonight’s game.
Panthers vs. Texans Picks
Carolina’s first two matchups of the season have both totaled 33 points. Houston’s first two games have totaled 58 points and 52 points, respectively. If bettors average these four contests together, this comes out to 44 points—one point higher than the current market price.
This crude math is useful for getting a ballpark of where the market should be, but this does not account for garbage time, strength of opponent, injuries, and much more. The Panthers have struggled mightily in the red-zone thus far in 2021, and in a short week, it is unlikely that there was enough practice time to substantially improve in this area. It does not help that this will be Carolina’s first game away from home this year. Mills is a clear downgrade at quarterback compared to Taylor. Against a stout Carolina defense, it is no guarantee that the Texans are even able to find the end-zone tonight.
Bettors should expect quite a few field goals in this one and for a low-scoring affair to buck the trend of prime time games hitting the over this fall. Take the under in this one.
PICK: Under 43 (-110)
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