NFL Week 3 Lines and Betting Picks: Tips for Every Game
It’s time to look at NFL Week 3 lines and betting picks! Luckily Sloan Piva has you covered with NFL betting tips, including picks against the spread or over/under for every game, starting with Thursday Night Football and ending with Monday’s marquee matchup between the Cowboys and Eagles. As always, make sure to kick things off with our favorite sportsbook offers found below!
It’s time to look at NFL Week 3 lines and betting picks! Luckily Sloan Piva has you covered with NFL betting tips, including picks against the spread or over/under for every game, starting with Thursday Night Football and ending with Monday’s marquee matchup between the Cowboys and Eagles. As always, make sure to kick things off with our favorite sportsbook offers found below!
We can officially put the second week of the 2021 NFL season in the books, and take a quick breather after a wild weekend. But the savviest of bettors never take a day off, as you can always find early value on the NFL odds boards across the online sports betting industry.
Of course, with potential rewards come inherent risks. If you bet for or against the Dolphins, Bears, Colts, or Texans today, you may be in store for a crucial QB announcement later this week. It’s important to recognize that not all early bets are good ones, and skill position uncertainty should always be regarded as a major red flag to bettors.
If you followed the advice from this column last week, sorry for the roller coaster. We started off the slate smoking hot, crushing the OVER of 42.5 in the WFT-Giants clash on Thursday Night Football, which ended with 59 total points (and a one-point Washington win). Then the Bengals covered +3.5 by a half-point Sunday, and the Bills destroyed the Dolphins. The Cowboys beat the Chargers, accounting for a ‘Best Bet’ win. But it was all downhill from there (in a bad way).
But it’s early—16 weeks of regular season action remain, and Super Bowl LVI kicks off in about 21 weeks. That gives us plenty of time to build up our NFL betting bankroll, starting with a great Week 3 slate. We have a lot more statistics, game footage, and analysis now than we did last week and the week before, so let’s make up some ground ASAP.
This week, I’ve decided to rank the games from each time slot in order from my favorite bets to my least favorite. That way, you don’t run to your preferred sportsbook and pound each bet just because it’s included in this list. Like I said, not all early bets are good bets. Follow the logic, and don’t get carried away before we even hit hump day. The ‘books are open 24/7/365!
Good luck in Week 3, and have as much fun as Lamar Jackson flipping into the end zone!
NFL Week 3 Lines
Panthers at Texans +7.5, O/U 44
Cardinals at Jaguars +7.5, O/U 52
Colts at Titans -5.5, O/U 48
Ravens at Lions +9, O/U 49
Washington at Bills -8.5, O/U 45.5
Saints at Patriots -2.5, O/U 43
Chargers at Chiefs -6.5, O/U 55.5
Falcons at Giants -2.5, O/U 48
Bears at Browns -7.5, O/U 46.5
Bengals at Steelers 4.5, O/U 44.5
Dolphins at Raiders -3.5, O/U 45
Jets at Broncos -11, O/U 41.5
Bucs at Rams -1, O/U 54.5
Seahawks at Vikings +1.5, O/U 55.5
Packers at 49ers -3.5, O/U 47.5
Eagles at Cowboys -4, O/U 51.1
*NFL odds updated Sept. 21, 10:20am ET
Carolina Panthers at Houston Texans +7.5, O/U 44
All preseason, everyone regarded the Texans as a certified dumpster fire. Then Houston eviscerated the Jaguars 37-21 in Week 1, and got off to a great start against Cleveland in Week 2. New QB Tyrod Taylor surprised the football world through 1.5 games, completing 31 of his first 44 passes for 416 yards and three touchdowns. Then, Taylor got hurt on a TD run, leaving the Texans back to square one with Davis Mills. Now it’s being reported that Taylor’s out for at least a month with a hamstring injury, so oddsmakers give a big edge to Carolina. Maybe it’s warranted, regardless of Houston’s signal-caller status—the Panthers are 2-0, after putting up 380-plus yards in each of their first two games (vs. NY Jets, vs, New Orleans). The Caro-cats slapped the Saints around to the tune of 26-7 over the weekend, possessing the rock for a whopping 38:32. Perhaps even more surprising than QB “(player-popup #sam-darnold)Sam Darnold”:/players/sam-darnold-328423’s conservative-but-efficient redemption tour in Charlotte, the Panthers defense has been stellar. They’ve allowed 21 points and 380 total yards all season, and now they face a second-stringer who wouldn’t make the final cut on 90 percent of NFL teams. With Darnold behind a solid o-line and three regular-season weeks into OC Joe Brady’s system—and afforded a buffet of dazzling playmakers like All-Pro super-back Christian McCaffrey, playmaking wideout (and Darnold’s former Jet teammate) Robby Anderson, and superstar-in-the-making receiver D.J. Moore — how can you not like the Panthers to go 3-0? Hell, they’ve outscored opponents 33-0 in first halves, so this could be over quickly. Eight points is a lot on the road, but Carolina should “Rhule” the roost.
PICK: Panthers -7.5
NFL Week 3 Betting Picks (1 PM)
Arizona Cardinals at Jacksonville Jaguars +7, O/U 52
Kyler freakin’ Murray for President. What was I thinking keeping 49ers receiver Brandon Aiyuk over this kid in my hometown fantasy football league? Murray has dominated through the air and on the ground—as he did in 13 of 16 games last season—and lightning-quick rookie wideout Rondale Moore and seven-time All-Star A.J. Green have joined the party. Third-year wide receiver Christian Kirk has impressed, too… oh, and let’s not forget about perennial All-Pro DeAndre Hopkins, who has almost effortlessly caught 10-of-12 targets for 137 yards and three scores? The Cardinals are very good—like score 72 points and accrue 890 yards through two weeks good. And Urban Meyers’ Jaguars are very bad—like give up 60 points and 847 yards through two weeks bad. I don’t care where this game kicks off—it’s ending with Arizona up by double-digits.
PICK: Cardinals -7
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans -5.5, O/U 48
This game serves as a prime example of why many bettors like going after early action on the sportsbooks. The Titans opened as -4.5 favorites across most sites, but now they’re creeping up closer to a touchdown. That’s because Indy QB Carson Wentz is banged up for the 500th time in his short career, and the unexpected promotion of sophomore slinger Jacob Eason probably cements the Colts’ fate as a winless squad. I like the Colts’ D—and love their second-year duo of back Jonathan Taylor and wideout Michael Pittman — but without Wentz, they can’t do enough to outscore Tennessee. The Titans just beat the Seahawks in Seattle, behind the rugged running of two-time rushing champ Derrick Henry. Even if QB Ryan Tannehill continues to struggle a bit, and stud second-year receiver A.J. Brown keeps battling drops, Tennessee should dismiss Indy handily.
PICK: Titans -5.5
Baltimore Ravens at Detroit Lions +9, O/U 49
Here’s another game that jumped up a point, with the Ravens having opened at -8. Whatever. Baltimore just gave the nation a fulgurous Monday Night show, amassing 481 yards—251 on the ground—and outlasting the reigning AFC-champion Chiefs 36-35. Lamar Jackson has become the 2021 version of Mike Vick, and then some. The Ravens’ star QB logged his 11th career game with triple-digit yardage in two different stat categories Sunday, finishing with 239 passing yards and 107 yards on the ground. For perspective, Vick has the second-most career ‘double-triples’ with eight. Good luck, Detroit—you should seek out Pepto-Bismol as a sponsor, because you’ve got no chance of stopping Baltimore’s runs. Green Bay’s Aaron Jones made the Lions look bad Monday—Jackson and the three-headed RB monster of Ty’Son Williams, Latavius Murray, and Devonta Freeman will make them look awful. Speedy wide receiver Marquise ‘Hollywood’ Brown and tight end Mark ‘Better than “(player-popup #george-kittle)George Kittle”:/players/george-kittle-37069’ Andrews serve as icing on the cake. Jared Goff won’t put up 35 points on this Baltimore defense, and that’s a Men’s Wearhouse guarantee (hit me up, sponsors!).
PICK: Ravens -9
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers -4.5, O/U 44
The Steelers looked good in a 23-16 Week 1 win over Buffalo, then they looked ugly in a 26-17 home loss to the Raiders on Sunday. Similarly, the Bengals beat the Vikings 27-24 in Week 1, but looked overmatched in a 20-17 loss to the Bears over the weekend. Early action seems to be on Cincy, but I’m in on Pittsburgh in a divisional home game against the younger Bengals. Defense still wins games, and I like the Steelers D better than Cincy’s. I don’t think this game sniffs the under, though—44 points!? I think the OVER could hit by the end of the third frame. There are too many playmakers—Ja’Marr Chase, Chase Claypool, Joe Mixon, Najee Harris, to name a few—for this to be a punt-filled dogfight. Step it up, Big Ben and Joe Burrow.
PICK: Steelers -4.5, OVER 44
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs -6.5, O/U 55.5
The Chiefs had their worlds rocked Sunday evening, when Patrick Mahomes experienced his first career loss in the month of September. Spoiler: he won’t suffer his second-career L in the month this coming weekend. I almost feel bad for the Chargers, as QB Justin Herbert appears to be marred by a sophomore slump at the worst possible time. Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Tyreek Hill are going to do a lot more damage to the Bolts than the Cowboys did in their 20-17 Week 2 win in LA, and Herbert will be seeing Honey Badger-like ghosts by 3:00 p.m. Sunday.
PICK: Chiefs -6.5
Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns -7.5, O/U 46
I have to pick an underdog at some point, right? Chicago may be without QB Andy Dalton this week, after the elder ginger of the NFL suffered a bone bruise in his knee last weekend. That gives the Bears a full week to prepare rookie Justin Fields for his first professional start, and I think he’s got a chance to at least make it a competitive game. Patrick Mahomes and Tyrod Taylor have each demonstrated that Cleveland can be susceptible to quick QBs—they combined for 33 yards and two scores on just six carries (5.5 yards per rush). Newsflash: Fields is younger, quicker, and more explosive on the run than both Mahomes and Taylor. I expect a win from the more experienced Baker Mayfield, and his dynamic duo of running backs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt — but with Browns wideout Jarvis Landry banged up, and Odell Beckham a shell of his former self, Fields and Chicago’s D should keep this within a touchdown.
PICK: Bears +7.5
New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots -3, O/U 43.5
This game appears toward the bottom of the 1:00 p.m. barrel for one reason: both these teams have endured Jekyll-and-Hyde early-season swings. New Orleans blew out Aaron Rodgers and the Packers in Week 1, but got clobbered by the Panthers this past weekend. New England struggled against Miami in Week 1, but made mincemeat of the Jets on Sunday. I think both defenses will show up and show out in this one, with Jameis Winston tossing multiple picks to New England’s secondary and Pats rookie QB Mac Jones getting three-and-outed a half-dozen times. I’m nervous to back the dink-and-dunking Mac, but I can’t bet against Bill Belichick at home against a squad that just got crushed by Carolina.
PICK: Patriots -3, UNDER 43.5
NFL Week 3 Picks (Afternoon)
Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders -4, O/U 45.5
Here’s an example of an early line shift that shakes in our favor. This one opened at Raiders -5.5, and now it’s at -4. Buy a point and a half, and you could win some sharp cheddar if the Raiders win by a field goal. Of course, there’s a cloud of uncertainty around both squads’ starting QBs—the Dolphins’ Tua Tagovailoa could yield more time to Jacoby Brissett with a rib injury, while Derek Carr has ankle and toe injuries that land him in the ‘questionable’ listings. If we know anything about Carr, it’s that he’s a tough dude who likes winning. I’m banking on the veteran being out there, and leading the Raiders to a 3-0 record for the first time since 2002. Vegas rejoices as the young Fish squirm uncomfortably in the desert.
PICK: Raiders -4
Seattle Seahawks at Minnesota Vikings +1, O/U 55.5
Russell Wilson at the start of the season feels like a cheat code, and the Vikings have surrendered 61 points through two games. So, what am I missing? If the Vikings don’t change something about their approach, Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf could combine for 300 yards themselves. I get the respect for Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, and Adam Thielen at home, but Russ will be cooking like Emeril Lagasse in his early days. BAM! Give me the Seahawks and the UNDER, because games with 55-point over/unders always end up underwhelming us somehow.
PICK: Seahawks -1, UNDER 55.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Rams -1, O/U 54.5
This should be one of the best games of the week, but it’s a game I want absolutely nothing to do with betting-wise. Tom Brady looks like he sold his soul to the devil to get the Benjamin Button age-reversal “curse,” but he has struggled against Aaron Donald and the Rams during the regular season throughout his career. Add to the fact that it’s in LA, and Matthew Stafford has developed a bromance with Cooper Kupp that seems akin to Brady-Edelman circa 2017, and I’m staying away from this with a ten-foot pole. You want to roll the dice? Take the Bucs +1. But I’ll take the UNDER and enjoy the game regardless of who prevails.
PICK: UNDER 54.5
New York Jets at Denver Broncos -10.5, O/U 41.5
Jets rookie Zach Wilson looked horrendous last weekend against the Patriots, pretty much running down the checklist of poor QB play. Forced throws? check. Missed progressions: check. Dunking it down to a running back with a receiver wide open in the end zone: check. Wilson’s four-interception performance had many pundits nationwide referencing the infamous Sam Darnold “seeing ghosts” game against New England in 2019. Now the poor soul must travel to Denver to face a 2-0 Broncos squad with a confident Teddy Bridgewater under center. That’s not a recipe for success for Gang Green, but I’m also not jumping at Denver -10.5. I’ll bet on the OVER hitting on the modest total of 41.5—it’s Denver’s home-opener, so I expect the Broncos will get after it (Javonte Williams breakout? Courtland Sutton encore?). Maybe Wilson will take a step forward with nothing left to lose but his job.
PICK: OVER 41.5
NFL Week 3 SNF & MNF Picks
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers -4, O/U 47.5
The Packers defense still stunk on Monday Night Football against the Lions, but their offense did a 180-degrees flip from their putrid Week 1 showing against the Saints. Now, Aaron Rodgers and his fantastic skill-position duo of Davante Adams and Aaron Jones face the biggest test of their young season: squaring off against the tough D and strong running game of the Niners in San Fran. I’m going with the underdog Packers—upsets always seem to happen in prime time, and giving Rodgers four points in a regular-season NFC battle seems ludicrous. Feeling extra saucy? Bet the OVER, too. The 49ers gave up 33 points to Detroit less than two weeks ago, and Green Bay couldn’t stop a pin-sized hole with a jar of Flex-Seal (I will land a sponsor today!).
PICK: Packers +4, OVER 47.5
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys -4, O/U 51.5
Again, the underdog feels like the play in this prime-time divisional showdown. Philly has a ton of playmakers now, highlighted by second-year QB phenom Jalen Hurts and his talented former ‘Bama receiver DeVonta Smith. Your shoulders should feel less heavy now, Miles Sanders, Zach Ertz, and Dallas Goedert. Of course, on the other side, the Cowboys have even more firepower. Ezekiel Elliott enjoyed a ‘get right’ game this past weekend against the Chargers (16-71-1), while his backup Tony Pollard had an ‘even better’ game (13-109-1). Second-year stud wideout CeeDee Lamb hauled in another eight catches for 81 yards, despite Dak Prescott barely scratching the surface of his quarterbacking ability (a very modest 23-of-27, 0 TD, 1 INT). I expect a much more high-scoring affair next Monday than either of these teams experienced their last time out. Stand up, Amari Cooper — you always go off when the lights shine the brightest. As for fans of defense, you might want to sit this one out.
PICK: Eagles +4, OVER 51.5
Image Credit: Imagn