Thursday Night Football Preview: Ravens vs. Dolphins Odds, Picks, and Prediction
Ravens vs. Dolphins Odds
| Ravens Odds | -7.5 |
| Dolphins Odds | +7.5 |
| Over/Under | 46.5 |
| Date | Thursday, Nov. 11 |
| Time | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV | NFL Network |
The Baltimore Ravens and the Miami Dolphins will open Week 10 of the NFL season on Thursday Night Football at Hard Rock Stadium. Oddsmakers are expecting a comfortable victory for the Ravens, pricing Baltimore as greater than a touchdown favorite on the spread.
In this Thursday Night Football betting preview, we’ll dive into the matchup and Ravens vs. Dolphins odds to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks before kickoff.
Baltimore Ravens -7.5
The Ravens enter action this evening with an opportunity to tie the Tennessee Titans for the best record in the AFC through nine games. In Week 1, Baltimore blew a 14 point lead to the Las Vegas Raiders in an eventual loss. Since then, the Ravens have won six of their last seven contests, with their lone defeat coming to the Cincinnati Bengals.
Lamar Jackson has continued to be mediocre and inconsistent through the air, but is well on his way to another 1,000 yard rushing season. Jackson ranks 11th amongst qualified signal callers in QBR, but his ability to extend plays with his legs creates value that is hard to quantify with traditional quarterback metrics. Tight end Mark Andrew has graded as the best player at his position through nine weeks of the NFL season, per Pro Football Focus. Only Marquise Brown has totaled more catches and yards than Andrew in this Baltimore offense. The offensive line and the lack of contributions from the running back unit remain a concern, but those vulnerabilities are unlikely to be enough to worry about an upset this evening.
More concerning is the fact that Baltimore’s defense continues to be highly erratic. The Ravens are close to league average against the run, allowing 4.3 yards-per-carry. Yet, this unit has allowed the fourth-most runs of 20-plus yards this fall and is one of only four defensive units to allow multiple rushes of 40-plus yards. Baltimore is also allowing the eighth-most yards per attempt through the air. Opposing signal callers have found an abundance of success against the Ravens this fall, totaling 14 touchdowns against only five interceptions—good for a 96.9 passer rating. Baltimore’s secondary unit has been similarly susceptible to big plays in the passing attack, allowing the fourth-most completions of 20-plus yards and the fourth-most completions of 40-plus yards.
Miami Dolphins +7.5
After winning 10 games during the 2020 campaign, the Dolphins have dramatically underperformed relative to their preseason expectations in 2021. In Week 1, a late unforced turnover from the New England Patriots allowed Miami to escape with a victory to open the year. The Dolphins proceed to lose their next seven games, with four of those losses coming by double-digits. Consequently, bettors would be wise to not put too much stock in a 17-9 win over the hapless Houston Texans in Week 9.
Tua Tagovailoa has already missed four games this fall due to injury, and could be in danger of missing another contest tonight. Tagovailoa is listed as a game-time decision ahead of tonight’s tilt against Baltimore. Though the injury seems minor, and Tagovailoa logged limited practice reps early in the week, there does not appear to be too much optimism surrounding his status. If Tagovailoa is unable to go, Jacoby Brissett will take the snaps under center. Brissett has five touchdowns, four interceptions, and a 54.9 QBR on 202 pass attempts this season. Though it can be tempting to automatically fade a backup quarterback, Brissett has proved himself capable of keeping Miami competitive when he’s been on the field in 2021.
The larger concern for the Dolphins is their lack of playmaking on the defensive side of the ball. Other than Christian Wilkins and Emmanuel Ogbah, there is not much to like about this unit. Xavien Howard and Byron Jones form one of the most beatable cornerback duos in the NFL. As a whole, the Dolphins have allowed 17 touchdowns and a 95.7 passer rating to opposing quarterbacks through nine games. Miami has been similarly uninspiring against the run, permitting 4.3 yards-per-carry. This group is likely to have a difficult time slowing down a Baltimore offense averaging 27.6 points per game.
Ravens vs. Dolphins Pick & Prediction
The total for this Thursday Night Football affair opened at over/under 48 points on the market. However, the consensus line has been bet down to 46.5 points at most major sportsbooks. The line movement could have something to do with the fact that Jacoby Brissett is the possible starter tonight. Regardless if Brissett or Tagovailoa start tonight, the line movement has gone the wrong way. Neither of these teams have a reliable defense. Baltimore is prone to giving up big plays and missing tackles in the open field. Miami has extreme difficulty stopping both the run and the pass. Both teams should be able to move the ball with relative ease this evening. Make it a small play, but take the over.
PICKS: Over 46.5 (-110)
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