NFL Week 10 Betting Lines and Picks 2021
Before we look at Week 10 lines, let’s reflect on what might have been the wildest week of football in recent memory. The 5-2 Bills lost to the 1-6 Jaguars. The Derrick Henry-less Titans knocked off the 7-1 Rams in Los Angeles. Colt McCoy kept things rolling for Arizona. The Broncos nearly doubled-up the Cowboys at AT&T Stadium, the Patriots extended their undefeated road record, and the Browns throttled the Bengals despite no Cleveland receiver reaching four catches. It’s safe to say more than a few entries were knocked out of NFLSurvivor Pools.
The Falcons are now in the playoff picture after beating the division-rival Saints, and 11 AFC teams—including two entire divisions—have at least five wins. That list doesn’t include the Colts, who have the second-most points in the AFC, but just the 12th-best record in the conference. Wow! Let’s catch our breath, continue to, in what some have called the most unpredictable season in NFL history.
Each Tuesday, we give you NFL betting tips for every single game on the upcoming week’s schedule. We rank the 1:00 p.m. and 4:00 p.m. Sunday games in order of confidence level, and of course provide our best bets for each of the three primetime games.
Between Week 6 and Week 8, our ATS and over/under picks in this column went 36-15-1. That’s a scorching hot streak, if I must say so myself. Last week wasn’t nearly as torrid, but it still packed much more good than bad. We went 4-2 on our best bets for Sunday’s early games, and 2-0 in our top picks for the 4:00 p.m. slate. We also went 1-1 on Sunday Night Football, and 2-0 in Monday Night Football with the Bears +6.5 and the OVER.
Let’s continue crushing it, and get right into our Week 10 early lines and top betting picks. It’s all about the money—let’s go get it, and have as much fun as Cooper Rush’s family celebrating a win in his first NFL start!
NFL Week 10 Betting Lines
NFL Picks and Predictions
Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins +7.5, O/U 46
The Dolphins took care of business despite Tua Tagovailoa being a late scratch with a broken finger, as the Texans provided very little resistance in South Beach. Miami backup QB Jacoby Brissett threw two interceptions, one fewer than returning Houston QB Tyrod Taylor. The Ravens are not the kind of team you want to face right after beating a one-win team to submission. Baltimore just won a 34-31 overtime slugfest over Minnesota, with Lamar Jackson and the Ravens putting up a whopping 500 total yards of offense in the process. Jackson had 266 yards passing and three TDs, as well as 120 rushing yards. It’s the 10th 100-yard rushing game of LJax’s four-year career, tying Michael Vick for most ever by a QB (Vick needed 97 games to reach the mark—Jackson did it in 54). The 2019 MVP has also thrown or rushed for a touchdown in 44 consecutive games, the longest-active streak in the NFL. Look out, Miami—Hurricane Lamar is on its way, and Tua Time looks to be on hold until at least Week 11.
PICK: Ravens -6.5 (buy a point), OVER 46
Early Games (1:00 p.m. Slate), ranked in order of confidence level
Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys -9, O/U 53.5
Dallas just lost 30-16 at home to the Broncos, while the Falcons just beat the Saints 27-25 in New Orleans. So, I’m not really understanding why oddsmakers have the Cowboys by nearly double-digits. Atlanta has won three of its last four games, RB/WR hybrid Cordarrelle Patterson keeps dominating, and the Falcons have very quietly positioned themselves into the NFC playoff picture. I don’t think this game will be very pretty, but I do think the underdogs will cover. Dallas running back Ezekiel Elliott is banged up (knee), and the ‘boys defense seems to be lacking its early-season flair. The Falcons have covered in three of their four away games so far this season. The Cowboys should win, but only by a handful of points.
PICK: Falcons +9
New Orleans Saints at Tennessee Titans -3, O/U 45
Don’t bet against the Tennessee Titans right now—just don’t do it! They may have lost back-to-back rushing champ Derrick Henry to a broken foot, but they haven’t lost a shred of motivation to topple the NFL. Tennessee has now surmounted the likes of Buffalo, Kansas City, the LA Rams, Seattle (with Russ Wilson), and Indy twice. Do you really want to doubt them against Trevor Siemian or Taysom Hill under center? Ryan Tannehill, A.J. Brown, and Julio Jones should hold court against a New Orleans secondary that just allowed Atlanta to post 332 passing yards. The Titans are 7-2 against the spread this season, while New Orleans is 4-4.
PICK: Titans -3
Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots -1.5, O/U 45
The Patriots have been a pleasant surprise with rookie QB Mac Jones as signal-caller, and their three-game winning streak has largely flown under the national radar. Enter the Browns, the organization Bill Belichick started his head coaching career with back in 1991. Cleveland has only managed two wins in nine games against Belichick’s Patriots since 2000. But I think this week will be a different story. The Browns put up 41 points on the Bengals in Cincy last week, with Nick Chubb needing just 14 carries to amass 137 rushing yards and two TDs. Cleveland also serves as the best defense New England has faced since Tom-pa Bay rolled into town on October 3. Jones should have some trouble against an elite Browns front-seven, especially with Pats backs Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson nursing head injuries. No immediate revenge game for you, Odell Beckham, Jr.
PICK: Browns +1.5
Detroit Lions at Pittsburgh Steelers -9.5, O/U 43.5
I have the Steelers D/ST and the Colts D/ST in fantasy, and I think I’m rolling with the Steelers against Detroit over the Colts against Jacksonville. Pittsburgh has looked much better as of late than at the start of the season, while the Lions have looked miserably lately after a somewhat-hopeful start. Big Ben may have a noodle arm, but he still has an elite corps of possession receivers and the best rookie running back in football in Najee Harris. Steelers by double-digits.
PICK: Steelers -9.5
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets -13, O/U 47.5
The Bills just dropped a stunner to the Jaguars over the weekend, after convincing everyone they were the class of the AFC. Well, maybe Buffalo will pull its collective head out of its rear and actually show up to the Meadowlands this coming weekend. Bills QB Josh Allen is 12-6 in divisional games in his four-year career, and he’s now 8-3 in November games. He needs to make up ground in the MVP race, so don’t be surprised to see the Jets fall in a landslide.
PICK: Bills -13
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Football Team +10.5, O/U 51.5
Coming off a well-timed bye week, Tom Brady and the defending-champion Buccaneers will head into the nation’s capital to ravage the team with no name. Tampa should have wideout Antonio Brown back in action after a two-game absence, and Washington may or may not have top running back Antonio Gibson at even 75 percent. Maybe you want to buy a point to avoid a heartbreaker, but methinks the Bucs can shiver DC’s timbers pretty heartily.
PICK: Buccaneers -9.5 (buy a point), UNDER 51.5
Late Games (4:00 p.m. Slate), ranked in order of confidence level
Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals -10, O/U 44.5
The Cardinals just keep reinforcing their identity as a powerhouse, even winning handily in San Francisco without MVP candidate QB Kyler Murray and perennial All-Pro receiver DeAndre Hopkins. Next man up! James Conner, the backup running back, gashed the Niners for 96 rushing yards, 77 receiving yards, and three total scores while the Cards D leveled San Fran’s running game (39 total yards on the ground). Sam Darnold may have gotten All-Pro running back Christian McCaffrey back last week, but he and the Panthers still looked awful against New England. Expect similar results this weekend.
PICK: Cardinals -10
Philadelphia Eagles at Denver Broncos -2.5, O/U 45
Early-week value alert! The Broncos just knocked off the Cowboys in Arlington, and they’re playing with supreme confidence again now that QB Teddy Bridgewater and wideout Jerry Jeudy are back in action. Meanwhile, Philly looks bad even when it wins, and Jalen Hurts is the biggest fantasy statistical mirage since Tim Tebow. Denver’s a contender, the Eagles are pretenders, and Mile High remains the hardest place to play in the second half of the season—especially when you’re trying to put Jordan Howard and Boston Scott into a running duel with Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams.
PICK: Broncos -2.5
Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers -4, O/U 49.5
Russell Wilson (finger) and Aaron Rodgers (COVID-19, cruddy human) should be back for this epic showdown, and it should be a good one. Wilson ranks No. 1 in the NFL this year with a 125.3 QB rating, while reigning MVP Rodgers sits sixth with a 105.7 rating. It’s far too early to pick against the spread for this game, but I tend to lean toward Green Bay at home with Wilson still kicking off rust. I’m all-in on the OVER though—49.5 seems super low in a Week 10 battle of future Hall of Fame quarterbacks.
PICK: OVER 49.5
Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Chargers -2.5, O/U 52.5
The Vikings have been tough-luck losers seemingly all friggin’ season, and I feel bad for them. I also feel bad that I’m leaning toward the Bolts in this one, after Chargers QB Justin Herbert righted the ship in Philly last week. LA passed for 365 yards against a meager Eagles secondary, and now it welcomes a Vikings D that surrenders 30.8 points per road game. Lock in the Bolts.
PICK: Chargers -2.5
Week 10 Primetime Picks
Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders +2.5, O/U 52.5
The Raiders have been mired with bad news this season. First, Jon Gruden resigned after his racist and hateful emails from over the years leaked. Then, Henry Ruggs got released after drunkenly killing a woman by crashing into her going 156 miles per hour. Now, it seems the Raiders are destined for a cataclysmic second half of the season, after a tough-luck Week 9 loss to the New York Giants that saw Vegas QB Derek Carr commit three turnovers. Kansas City is going to get things rocking again before we know it, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it was Sunday night on national television. Sorry, Raiders Nation—it’s just not your year.
PICK: Chiefs -2.5, OVER 52.5
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers +4, O/U 49.5
This should be a great Cali showdown. George Kittle’s back to full health for San Fran, LA’s defense is as good as ever, and both teams receiving corps feature massive playmakers. I’m leaning toward the Rams -4 as they are the better overall team, but I’m much more interested in the OVER on the total of 49.5. Sure, these teams haven’t hit 50 total points in a head-to-head matchup since December 2019, but these teams have also never matched up since Matthew Stafford joined the Rams. Stafford ranks second in the NFL with a 111.0 QB rating, and he has LA at fifth overall in scoring with an average of 29 points per game. The Niners will be playing catchup, so Jimmy G should be flinging the ball deep to Kittle and wideouts Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk. Grab the OVER here, but don’t parlay it with either team’s spread.
PICK: Rams -4 or OVER 49.5
Image Credit: Imagn