Primetime Parlay: Titans vs. Steelers Same Game Parlay Picks

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2024-06-18 12:31:55

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Last year, ScoresAndOdds’ ParlayIQ tool helped create a variety of fun same-game parlay tickets throughout the NFL season. Through thousands of simulations, the tool examines the potential value various betting lines offer on sports betting apps. Along with the simulations, we will examine stats, roster news, trends, player props, and betting odds across sports betting sites to find the best price for our same-game parlay ticket. For this article, we build a same-game parlay for the Tennessee Titans versus the Pittsburgh Steelers on Thursday Night Football.

Thursday Night Football will bring the clocks back ahead of this weekend with a matchup between two old-school-style football teams. The Titans and Steelers will love nothing more to run the football and play the shortest game in NFL history on Thursday night. With both teams attempting to remain in wild-card contention, we should be in for a slugfest. Let’s take a peek at betting odds on FanDuel Sportsbook before printing a ticket for tonight’s game.

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Titans vs. Steelers Same Game Parlay

The Steelers are 2.5-point favorites on FanDuel Sportsbook. 69% of money bet on the spread lines up with the Steelers per SAO, while only 49% of tickets do the same. This makes sense. Pittsburgh will be a hostile environment for a young quarterback. Even if the Steelers haven’t looked the part this season, sharper bettors seem to doubt a rookie quarterback’s ability to overcome this environment.

Further, bettors don’t seem to believe many points will be scored in tonight’s game. The implied game total of 36.5 points has seen far more action on the under with 93% of the money pouring in on a low-scoring affair. The Titans and Steelers do not run the football as much as we are accustomed to from these teams but this is more likely because of game scripts and less likely because of philosophical changes. The Steelers allow 4.5 yards per play against opposing rushers. Look for a heavy dose of Derrick Henry.

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The Steelers’ defense gets a lot of acclaim despite very suspect play in 2023. The Steelers’ defense is in the middle of the pack in scoring defense and only 11th in sack rate. T.J. Watt is still a superstar, though, and already boasts 8.5 sacks on the season. We won’t be shocked if Watt finishes the year as the sack leader.

In the meantime, neither offense scores many points. At peak conditions, the Titans want to run the football and minimize mistakes. The franchise is built around Derrick Henry even if DeAndre Hopkins — who will play tonight — scored three touchdowns from Will Levis against the Falcons. Without Ryan Tannehill, the job seems to be Levis’ to lose. If the Titans keep winning, Ryan Tannehill might have played his last snap for the Titans.

The Steelers’ defense, however, will get a boost back with Cameron Heyward returning from injured reserve. With a routine double-digit sack presence in the middle of the defense, Heyward will very much help with issues stopping the run. Unfortunately, the Steelers will be without Minkah Fitzpatrick on the back end of the defense. Can Will Levis take advantage?

This will be tough. For a rookie quarterback to go play in Pittsburgh in primetime, a special performance will be required to find a win on Thursday night. With both teams aiming to keep the ball out of their opponent’s hands, we might be in store for the shortest football game in history.

Regardless, let’s take a look at what ParlayIQ has to say about tonight’s game as we aim to come up with a fun same-game parlay ticket to sweat on Thursday night.

Same Game Parlay Picks for TNF

Henry Over 72.5 Rushing Yards
Warren Over 19.5 Receiving Yards
Henry Anytime Touchdown Scorer

Derrick Henry Over 72.5 Rushing Yards

We are letting the big dog eat, tonight. Oddly enough, ParlayIQ found Derrick Henry exceeding his rushing prop in less than 50% of simulations. Let’s come up with why.

The Steelers are way ahead, forcing the Titans to throw? I don’t know if I believe the Steelers can blow out any team this season. The offense doesn’t seem to have that capacity. The Steelers’ defense is too strong? While the return of Cameron Heyward worries me, the Steelers are allowing plenty of yardage to opposing backfields.

I think Mike Vrabel would love nothing more than to play this game close and pound the ball with Derrick Henry all game. I think Henry will get 20+ carries tonight and get over this rushing prop.

Jaylen Warren Over 19.5 Receiving Yards

I don’t have a lot of faith in any Steeler and the return of Diontae Johnson only makes things murkier.

Najee Harris has not been very effective and Jaylen Warren is clearly the better receiving option out of the backfield. Warren has at least four targets in five of the Steelers’ seven games and exceeded this number in five of the seven games. One of his failures was against San Francisco where Warren had 5 catches but nowhere to run.

I think that Warren is always a threat to break a long run on a reception. The Titans’ defense is very strong against the run — the Steelers might need to use Warren’s skillset more than that of Najee Harris.

Derrick Henry Anytime Touchdown Scorer

Finally, in what I think will be a slugfest I am going to go with the rare touchdown. Derrick Henry feels like as good a bet as anyone to find the endzone tonight and should if the Titans’ dream script comes to pass.

If we get Henry touching the football 20+ times, we can expect him to get most of the work in the redzone as well. With a rookie quarterback on the road, the Titans will do everything they can to give Henry the ball inside the ten-yard-line.

I am not in love with any other props even if ParlayIQ suggests a handful north of 55% of simulations. Instead, I want to build tonight’s ticket around the obvious workhorse in the Tennessee backfield.