Today's Hitter Breakdown: April 10th
Last night was pretty crazy with Houston knocking Maurer out in the first and tallying 16 runs. (What?!) That is what you get with baseball. Today we get a split schedule with some day games and some night games, so there should be some nice sweats all day long.
Last night was a bit frustrating as I had a lineup which was at the top of the BLB qualifier on DraftDay until a ways through the night games. If I choose different Yankees the result is different. Congrats to the_rick64 though on being the first qualifier, and time to get back at it today. This is the first day using this season’s numbers, so expect them to be a bit all over the place until some we can get a decent sample.
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Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denard Span | 0.791 | 0.263 | 0.356 | 1.02 | Floyd – R | 3 | 0.214 |
| Jose Bautista | 1.107 | 0.125 | 0.459 | 1.01 | Porcello – R | 5.06 | 0.25 |
| Maicer Izturis | 0.786 | 0.231 | 0.338 | 1.01 | Porcello – R | 5.06 | 0.222 |
| Evan Longoria | 0.917 | 0.526 | 0.415 | 1.05 | Holland – L | 2.57 | 0.667 |
| Robinson Cano | 0.83 | 0.2 | 0.338 | 1.03 | Myers – R | 12.6 | 0.25 |
| Jacoby Ellsbury | 0.683 | 0.276 | 0.343 | 1.09 | Arrieta – R | 9 | 0.412 |
| Mike Moustakas | 0.668 | 0.25 | 0.252 | 1.03 | Hendriks – R | 7.71 | 0.214 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | 1.141 | 0.5 | 0.455 | 1.04 | Sanchez – L | 5.4 | 0.167 |
| Alfonso Soriano | 0.553 | 0.333 | 0.214 | 1.01 | Lohse – R | 1.5 | 0.158 |
| Aaron Hill | 0.926 | 0.276 | 0.393 | 1.04 | Sanchez – L | 5.4 | 0.125 |
- Denard Span has my favorite stat of the day. He has a pretty significant sample against Gavin Floyd, and has done very well, 17-35 with 4 doubles. It appears Span just has Floyd’s number, and with the power bats hitting behind him, he could end up with a nice 2 hit 2 run day.
- Even with a BABIP of .125, Jose Bautista still manages a wOBA of .459. Granted, this is a small sample, but it is still something to take notice of. Here Bautista gets Porcello, who looked decent in spring training but pretty poor in his first game. Most of the Jays have nice splits against Porcello which could lead to some nice fantasy point opportunities for Jose.
- Maicer Izturis has had Porcello’s number going 8 for 13 off of him with home run (!). I like him as a bargain option today as he seems to have Porcello figured out.
- Evan Longoria numbers here are from a very small sample, however it is worth noting that he has been pretty hot to start the season and is a nice option against Holland who Longo has hit to the tune of 9/22 and 3 homers in his career.
- It has been a pretty disgusting tear that Robinson Cano has been on the last couple of days against Cleveland. Nothing seems to have changed in the 3 games, he is still at Progressive and still facing a pretty bad right hander. If he is still cheap on most sites, you have to roll with him.
- Jacoby Ellsbury has started out slow, but gets the perfect medicine to turn that around. Arrieta looked pretty bad last time out, and now has to face a rejuvenated Red Sox lineup with Ellsbury at the top. Jacoby is 2 for 5 off of Arrieta in his career, both of the hits being home runs.
- Mike Moustakas is pretty cheap all around the industry and if he gets hot has the ability to put up a 2 homer game. He got a knock last night, so maybe that will help him get it together. Today he gets Liam Hendriks who he is 5 for 6 off of. I think he finally goes deep today.
- Paul Goldschmidt will be a popular pick today because of how hard he crushes left handers. He gets to match up with Jonathan Sanchez today at Chase Field which is a fantasy players dream. Unless he is extremely expensive, he should be used.
- Alfonso Soriano is more of a BVP pick than anything today. Most of his numbers have been bad for the beginning of the season, and he hasn’t been hitting right handers, but he does have a lengthy history against Kyle Lohse, hitting him to the tune of a 1.079 OPS. He is 20 for 53 off of Lohse with only 6 strikeouts. The good thing about him is he should be pretty cheap due to his pathetic start.
- Aaron Hill gets Sanchez in this game and should be hitting near Goldschmidt. These 2 could combine for some nice fantasy point combos in Chase Field. Hill’s L/R splits will even out as the season goes on as the sample gets bigger.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Reynolds | 1.208 | 0.214 | 0.486 | 1.03 | Nova – R | 7.71 | 0.333 |
| JJ Hardy | 0.803 | 0.211 | 0.341 | 1.06 | Dempster – R | 5.4 | 0.105 |
| David Murphy | 0.548 | 0.158 | 0.259 | 1.1 | Moore – R | 0 | 0.2 |
| Prince Fielder | 0.764 | 0.235 | 0.351 | 1.03 | Buehrle – L | 10.13 | 0.429 |
| Andre Ethier | 0.976 | 0.364 | 0.372 | 0.89 | Stults – L | 0 | 0.375 |
| Carlos Quentin | 0.902 | 0.286 | 0.396 | 0.97 | Billingsley – R | 0 | 0.429 |
| Dayan Viciedo | 0.666 | 0.1 | 0.266 | 0.97 | Zimmermann -R | 1.5 | 0.158 |
| Dexter Fowler | 0.975 | 0.316 | 0.467 | 0.85 | Zito – L | 0 | 0.167 |
| Drew Stubbs | 0.32 | 0.286 | 0.141 | 0.9 | Nova – R | 7.71 | 0.133 |
| Desmond Jennings | 0.637 | 0.25 | 0.297 | 1.05 | Holland – L | 2.57 | 0.5 |
- Mark Reynolds is your prototypical boom or bust guy, and I like him to bust here. He has solid numbers on the season so far but is super up and down and has posted a pretty poor BVP against Nova (3 for 15 with 0 HRs). If he isn’t smashing homers, he really isn’t filling up the fantasy box score.
- JJ Hardy has been garbage this season against right handers, and he gets Dempster today who was ok in his first start. The real alarming numbers here is the 2 for 27 in Hardy’s career against Dempster with 7 strikeouts. Ouch.
- When David Murphy was platooning, he excelled at hitting right handers. I was using him because he was cheap the last couple of days and he has killed me by being ice cold. Now he gets to face a pretty solid left hander. With the way Murphy has been swinging it, 0-4 with 3Ks is not out of the question.
- Prince Fielder hasn’t been tearing the cover off the ball yet, and I don’t think it’s a good time to expect a 2 homer game out of him. The Tigers are against Buehrle today and from my many Tigers games watched, they struggle against left handers. If Buehrle brings decent stuff to the mound, he should be able to post a decent stat line.
- Andre Ethier again gets to face a left hander, and it is a matchup I don’t like to take. He is hitting .375 this year against lefties, but I will go with his career numbers which say he is much worse. Stults was effective in getting the Mets out last time, and should be able to contain Ethier in Petco.
- Carlos Quentin would be matched up against Billingsley in this, who is solid when he is healthy. Unfortunately we don’t know exactly what to think about Billingsley here, and similarly, Quentin appears to be injured as well. I wouldn’t even bother looking at Quentin here, just ignore him.
- Dayan Viciedo is pretty terrible against right handers, and he may get the day off to put Dunn in the outfield against Zimmermann. Just ignore him as well if he is in, because he is extremely cold to start the season and has a poor matchup against another righty.
- Dexter Fowler has had a pretty nice start to the season, but most of his success has came hitting left handed. Here he will be switched around and face Barry Zito who was pretty effective in his first start. Fowler’s numbers against Zito are poor, 5 for 23 with .612 OPS and he has to hit at AT&T which is a miserable batting park.
- Drew Stubbs has been ice cold to start the season, and now gets Ivan Nova at Progressive. I never understood why Cleveland would want Stubbs to hit at Progressive, and I think it is a terrible fit for them. Stubbs’ OPS to start the year is around .320 and his BABIP is still at .286 so we cannot expect too much of an improvement later on.
- Desmond Jennings has also had a pretty cold start to the year, and with Holland on tap it could continue. Jennings has struggled against Holland in the past going 3 for 14 with 6 strikeouts.