Today's Hitter Breakdown: April 12th
At the end of the night tonight, someone will be $50k richer thanks to the DraftKings $150k walk-off. Good luck to all who are playing tonight and I am really looking forward to seeing if a stack wins it or if a traditional lineup can come through and win.
There are some solid pitchers going today and some teams you really want to avoid, and other teams you really want to target. I have a feeling that a lot of the Walk-off entries will be the same, and we could have a tie for first.
Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Beltran | 0.656 | 0.227 | 0.275 | 0.99 | Lohse – R | 1.5 | 0.227 |
| Alex Avila | 0.812 | 0.167 | 0.289 | 0.96 | Colon – R | 4.5 | 0.25 |
| Prince Fielder | 1.111 | 0.318 | 0.405 | 0.96 | Colon – R | 4.5 | 0.211 |
| Daniel Murphy | 1.119 | 0.296 | 0.417 | 1.02 | Worley – R | 7.2 | 0.318 |
| Lucas Duda | 1.063 | 0.333 | 0.501 | 1.02 | Worley – R | 7.2 | 0.294 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 0.584 | 0.278 | 0.271 | 0.97 | Lannan – L | 3.86 | 0.154 |
| Shin-Soo Choo | 1.307 | 0.417 | 0.506 | 0.92 | Burnett – R | 3.27 | 0.435 |
| Matt Kemp | 0.673 | 0.217 | 0.224 | 1.04 | Corbin – L | 3 | 0.267 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.96 | 0.391 | 0.498 | 1.02 | Teheran – R | 9 | 0.44 |
| Evan Longoria | 0.797 | 0.417 | 0.362 | 1.06 | Doubront – L | 5.4 | 0.4 |
- Carlos Beltran hasn’t had the start to the season that he wanted, but it really looks like he could turn it around today. Beltran has owned Kyle Lohse in his career to the tune of .564 batting average and 1.673 OPS. This isn’t a small sample either as he is 22 for 39 with 4 home runs.
- Alex Avila has a terrible BABIP at the start of the season, so look for that to improve. Most of the Tigers have good numbers against Colon so Avila should have some RBI opportunities. Avila himself is 4 for 5 with 2 home runs against Colon, so a pretty solid performance could be in store.
- Prince Fielder has no splits against Colon, but that doesn’t worry me. O.co plays a bit better for left handers than right handers is why I give the bump to Fielder over Cabrera, but I really like all the Tigers today, especially Fielder who should be able to go yard against Colon.
- Daniel Murphy has a pretty crazy BVP against Worley, getting hits in 10 of his 15 at bats. He has been hot lately and faces Worley who may get lit up in this game.
- Lucas Duda also is 5 for 10 off of Worley, and has been hot to start the season. As you can probably tell, I am not too high on Minnesota in this game and I think the Mets could put up some bombs even at Target Field.
- Giancarlo Stanton doesn’t have anyone to hit near in Miami, and has struggled because of it. He still possesses freakish power however and if he can get a pitch he can still knock one out of the park. John Lannan is just the type of guy who could help him get back on track, as Stanton is yet to strikeout against Lannan in 11 at bats. Stanton’s price should be about as low as you will see it.
- Shin-Soo Choo has been on a tear to start the season, and it looks like changing teams has really reinvigorated him. He doesn’t have good stats against Burnett in his career, and he’s in PNC, however he is just so locked in against right handers right now he can hit anyone.
- Matt Kemp has just been ice cold to start the season, but he was heated up last night after Quentin charged the mound on Greinke. I think a fire has been lit under Kemp and he get a nice matchup against a lefty in Chase field.
- Bryce Harper has been money against right handers this year, and here he gets Julio Teheran another touted rookie who didn’t have that good of an opener. I think Teheran struggles again against some nice left handed bats in Washington.
- Evan Longoria is playing in the most hitter friendly matchup of the day, and matches up with Doubront in this game. Longoria may be the best 3b option out there today.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Markakis | 1.006 | 0.344 | 0.356 | 1.09 | Sabathia – L | 3 | 0.25 |
| Alexei Ramirez | 0.64 | 0.308 | 0.351 | 0.9 | Masterson – R | 0.69 | 0.333 |
| Miguel Montero | 0.724 | 0.333 | 0.35 | 1.06 | Kershaw – L | 0 | 0.667 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | 1.176 | 0.435 | 0.435 | 1.04 | Kershaw – L | 0 | 0.25 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.634 | 0.25 | 0.321 | 0.88 | Leake – R | 6 | 0.3 |
| Yoenis Cespedes | 0.672 | 0.182 | 0.271 | 0.9 | Scherzer – R | 7.2 | 0.192 |
| Chris Heisey | 0.52 | 0.211 | 0.219 | 0.88 | Burnett – R | 3.27 | 0.053 |
| Kendrys Morales | 1.292 | 0.321 | 0.385 | 0.85 | Darvish – R | 1.98 | 0.353 |
| Elvis Andrus | 0.51 | 0.276 | 0.306 | 0.93 | Iwakuma – R | 2.57 | 0.286 |
| Mike Moustakas | 0.569 | 0.222 | 0.239 | 1.03 | JA Happ – L | 0 | 0.2 |
- Nick Markakis has been pretty solid for Baltimore to start the season, but I don’t like his matchup here. Sabathia just got done picking apart the Tigers and now comes home to face the Orioles. Markakis is 13 for 53 off Sabathia with a .647 OPS in those 53 opportunities.
- Masterson has been oddly effective this year so far, which is bad news for Alexei Ramirez. Alexei has had 37 at bats against Masterson, and has only managed 6 hits off of him in his career. Add that into Progressive field making it hard on righties and Ramirez just doesn’t have a good matchup.
- Miguel Montero gets the unfortunate experience of hitting against the best pitcher in baseball right now in Clayton Kershaw. Add that into Montero being 4 for 20 against Kershaw with 9 strikeouts, and it is obvious there are better options at catcher.
- I can almost be certain this will be the only time that Paul Goldschmidt appears in the hitters to avoid list against a left hander. His salary is going to be very high on sites and his BVP against Kershaw is bad (1-11 5KO).
- The Pirates have been extremely terrible at hitting so far, and the fact that PNC Park is hard to hit in isn’t making anything any better. Andrew McCutchen is a star, but he has limited opportunites in such a bad offense. His history versus Leake doesn’t give us much hope either, 6 for 30 with 8KO and a .573 OPS.
- Yoenis Cespedes has struggled a bit at the beginning of this season, and it will continue here against Scherzer. Max struggled a bit in his first start, but really has the stuff to confound Yoenis.
- I think the numbers say it all about Chris Heisey today. He has been garbage against right handers, and is facing a decent one in an impossible park to hit in for right handers.
- Darvish has been striking people out at a really nice rate this year, and Kendrys Morales will probably be there to assist in his K rate. Morales has 13 at bats with 0 hits and 8 strikeouts in his career against Darvish.
- The shortstop position is pretty hard to find a sure thing, and it’s a good spot to look for value especially with Elvus Andrus at Safeco against Iwakuma today. Andrus is one of the most expensive SS anywhere, and he has only managed 2 hits in 9 at bats against Hisashi.
- Mike Moustakas gets flipped from the targets to the avoids, as he faces JA Happ who actually looks like Toronto’s best pitcher at this point. Moustakas is inept against left handers and should struggle again here.