Today's Hitter Breakdown: April 24th
There is just something about split days in MLB that is just awesome. Each site brings a nice tournament to sweat in the daytime and then you get to do it all over again at night. The weather has really impacted the beginning of the season, but today looks ok.
I tried to include guys from both sets of games, but if I didn’t get someone that you are looking at and are curious about, feel free to post here and I will give you my thoughts. I try to pick guys who play almost every day, but make sure to check the starting lineups to be for sure that they are playing.
Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Napoli | 1.283 | 0.367 | 0.38 | 1.06 | Anderson -L | 5.95 | 0.188 |
| Nelson Cruz | 0.728 | 0.315 | 0.333 | 1 | Roth – L | 0 | 0.236 |
| David Murphy | 0.921 | 0.2 | 0.261 | 0.91 | Roth – L | 0 | 0.184 |
| Jay Bruce | 0.905 | 0.411 | 0.306 | 1.08 | Samardzija – R | 3.38 | 0.236 |
| Todd Helton | 0.729 | 0.294 | 0.33 | 1.21 | Hudson – R | 4.5 | 0.229 |
| Marlon Byrd | 0.575 | 0.351 | 0.301 | 0.92 | Lilly – L | 0 | 0.261 |
| Michael Young | 0.638 | 0.4 | 0.363 | 0.99 | Rodriguez – L | 0.56 | 0.231 |
| David Wright | 1.369 | 0.347 | 0.433 | 0.92 | Lilly – L | 0 | 0.167 |
| Ryan Braun | 1.129 | 0.328 | 0.397 | 0.97 | Volquez – R | 8.84 | 0.318 |
| Kendrys Morales | 0.756 | 0.281 | 0.336 | 0.94 | Harrell – R | 4.98 | 0.28 |
- Mike Napoli has just been destroying the ball recently, and now he plays Brett Anderson in Fenway. Anderson hasn’t exactly looked good in his first couple of starts, and Napoli owns a nice 1.471 OPS against Anderson in their limited history.
- Nelson Cruz has my second favorite BVP of the day, has he has 9 hits on 15 at bats and 3 home runs against Jerome Williams. Williams has never been dominant and will give up a few runs to Texas today as a bunch of Texas players have good BVPs.
- David Murphy struggles against lefties and hits against righties even if his stats do not say that right now. Jerome Williams gives him a good chance to do something nice as Texas should have a bunch of guys on early in this game.
UPDATE – Sorry about the changes, but Williams is not starting for the Angels, instead it is Michael Roth. While the BVP numbers are out the window, Cruz is still a good play. I don’t like Murphy against left handers so take another right hander from Texas, Beltre makes a solid play as does Andrus.
- Jay Bruce is the guy everyone talks about when talking hot/cold streaks. He has been pretty good and just hit his first home run a game before last. Samardzija is a good pitcher, but Bruce is a lefty in Great American, so if he connects on one he will homer.
- Todd Helton has my favorite BVP of the day. I am pretty sure that he is going to be on almost every roster. He has an absurd history against Hudson going 12 for 18 for a .667 batting average and a 1.825 OPS. Sure these stats are probably from a while ago, but it has to mean something right?
- Marlon Byrd is a guy who has been super cheap on most of the sites to begin the season, and actually has a decent matchup against Ted Lilly. We are going back in time with these names, but he has a decent history against Lilly and who knows what Ted will bring to the table here.
- Michael Young seems to be the forgotten third baseman that switched teams. He has had a pretty good start to the season with a .363 wOBA and gets to face Wandy Rodriguez at home. I am not a huge fan of Wandy and actually think the Phillies can score runs in this game.
- David Wright gets the play here as he is going to be the cog in the Mets lineup against Lilly. I am really skeptical as to what Lilly can do in this game and I think Wright will have a chance early to do some major damage.
- Ryan Braun disappointed last night, but he probably won’t disappoint again. He is 9 for 25 career against Volquez who has been terrible this year and has also stolen 5 bags. I like the speed the Brewers have and think the cheap Brewers are good upside plays too.
- Kendrys Morales is still a good hitter (especially against right handers) even though he went to Seattle, and he is underpriced as such. This Seattle offense is nothing to sleep on, and Morales can really punish right handed pitching, especially when it is a Houston pitcher playing. He has been hot the last couple of games also.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Kipnis | 0.585 | 0.229 | 0.203 | 1.07 | Quintana – L | 2.55 | 0.182 |
| Josh Reddick | 0.604 | 0.167 | 0.227 | 1.09 | Lester – L | 1.73 | 0.091 |
| Evan Longoria | 0.977 | 0.319 | 0.372 | 0.91 | Pettitte – L | 2.01 | 0.278 |
| Miguel Montero | 0.396 | 0.24 | 0.265 | 0.86 | Bumgarner – L | 2.05 | 0.267 |
| Matt Holliday | 0.611 | 0.307 | 0.36 | 0.97 | Strasburg – R | 2.96 | 0.22 |
| Matt Kemp | 0.721 | 0.34 | 0.249 | 0.92 | Harvey – R | 0.93 | 0.171 |
| Howie Kendrick | 0.586 | 0.31 | 0.301 | 1 | Darvish – R | 2.03 | 0.245 |
| Starlin Castro | 0.576 | 0.333 | 0.326 | 0.97 | Latos – R | 2.73 | 0.328 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.683 | 0.276 | 0.332 | 0.99 | Halladay – R | 6.04 | 0.273 |
| Austin Jackson | 0.395 | 0.343 | 0.327 | 1.01 | Davis – R | 2.25 | 0.319 |
- Jason Kipnis is just trash against left handers and Jose Quintana should be able to beat up this Indians lineup. Kipnis hasn’t been doing very well, and I don’t think this is a high upside situation for him.
- I could say the same about Josh Reddick as he has been horrible to start the season. Reddick is also bad against lefties and has to face Lester who has been really good to start this season. Stay away.
- Evan Longoria is pretty cheap still, considering he is one of the best 3b options out there, but today looks like a pass for me. He is playing in what should be a pitchers duel between Pettitte and Cobb and his lifetime splits against Pettitte are 2 for 18 with 10 strikeouts.
- Miguel Montero is another guy who has been super cold in the last week. I tried to get him going when he had a nice matchup, but he did nothing, so I am not expecting him to do anything when he has a bad matchup. He gets Bumgarner in AT&T who he is 3 for 15 lifetime off of with a .467 OPS.
- Matt Holliday is a guy who is a pretty good option no matter what, however the Cardinals haven’t exactly been scoring runs lately. Holliday in addition has to face Strasburg who can really shut him down.
- I figured Matt Kemp would homer last night as he had a nice chance to, but instead he just got 2 hits with a double. He has been awful against right handers this year, and has to face the most locked in righty right now in Matt Harvey. Kemp is cheap, but I wouldn’t take him here.
- Howie Kendrick certainly played over his head last night hitting 2 home runs, so don’t expect that again from him. This time, he gets Yu Darvish who he doesn’t have a hit off of in 12 at bats. Stay away from him and his bloated salary tonight.
- Starlin Castro is a guy who everyone expects to be at the top of the shortstop pool but all he has done so far is disappoint. He gets to bat in Great American Ballpark, but when you look at the stats, its not as good for right handers as left, and Latos has been solid this year. He will be at the top of the shortstop salaries and there are better options.
- I am waiting for Andrew McCutchen to break out and be the must play that he was last year, however that hasn’t happened yet and it’s most likely due to the Pirates slow start. I am not sure what you will get out of Halladay these days but what I do know is that McCutchen hasn’t had any success against him going 1 for 10 with 4 KOs.
- Austin Jackson has been ice cold recently as shown by his extremely low OPS in the last 7 days. He is more streaky of a hitter than people realize, and today against Wade Davis is not the best opportunity for him to break out of his slump.