Today's Hitter Breakdown: April 27th
Baseball is such a crazy game. I would not have guessed that Rizzo or Sanchez could have had the days that they did yesterday, but they did, and those who took them profited big time. Today is a new day and a new chance to grab the guy who is almost perfect from the plate or the guy who strikes out 17 on his way to an 8 IP win.
I think the most important thing for baseball is to find a strategy that works and to stick with it, and do not get cute trying to pick the “lucky” player who has a monster night. Just pick who you think has good matchups and eventually you will hit on one of those guys.
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freddie Freeman | 0.63 | 0.4 | 0.406 | 1.03 | Porcello – R | 11.08 | 0.294 |
| Lorenzo Cain | 1.324 | 0.431 | 0.398 | 1.03 | Kazmir – L | 16.2 | 0.4 |
| Carlos Santana | 1.022 | 0.375 | 0.482 | 1.03 | Santana – R | 2.48 | 0.321 |
| Ryan Howard | 0.879 | 0.35 | 0.312 | 0.97 | Marcum – R | 0 | 0.339 |
| Pedro Alvarez | 1.219 | 0.225 | 0.268 | 1.02 | Westbrook – R | 1.25 | 0.168 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | 0.961 | 0.407 | 0.423 | 1.04 | Francis – L | 8.44 | 0.269 |
| Nelson Cruz | 1.125 | 0.344 | 0.394 | 1.06 | Hernandez – L | 3.48 | 0.391 |
| Buster Posey | 1.262 | 0.288 | 0.348 | 0.97 | Stults – L | 4.7 | 0.286 |
| Wilin Rosario | 0.555 | 0.342 | 0.361 | 1.04 | Miley – L | 2.77 | 0.273 |
| Jacoby Ellsbury | 0.772 | 0.317 | 0.335 | 1.09 | Peacock – R | 7.5 | 0.344 |
- Freddie Freeman has a nice matchup with Porcello as he tries to get back into the groove after recovering from an injury. If you remember, Porcello gave up 9 ER to the Angels his last time out, and is clearly the Tigers’ worst pitcher. He hardly strikes anyone out so it will be a huge difference for the Braves than facing Anibal Sanchez.
- We get another chance at the Lorenzo Cain machine as last night’s game was rained out and they moved the starters a day. He still makes a solid play today against the inept Scott Kazmir.
- Carlos Santana is another good pick, especially at catcher. Santana has been one of the most productive players so far posting a .482 wOBA which is going to equal out to a lot of fantasy points.
- Ryan Howard seems to be getting it going as he hit a home run last night, and today he gets to face Marcum who he is 4 for 8 with 3 homers off of. He could definitely make it 2 days in a row here.
- I recommended Pedro Alvarez last night and it didn’t work out so well, even though he didn’t get blanked. In this game I think you can continue to ride his hot streak as he is facing the right handed Westbrook who he has owned in his career to a 11 for 19 mark with 2 homers and 1 strikeout. There appears to be pitchers which Alvarez crushes and those who he cannot hit, and Westbrook is one he crushes.
- Paul Goldschmidt is another good play. I like taking him every time he faces a left hander no matter where he is, but especially today against Francis. Francis is just plain bad and Goldy should be able to knock one out tonight.
- Nelson Cruz continues to deliver each and every day as he is quickly climbing to the top of the hitter charts for the year. He is raking against left handers right now and gets Pedro Hernandez who he hasn’t seen before. Cruz is locked in and his salary would have to have jumped super high for me to sit him today.
- Buster Posey is another guy who has started to get it going, and if he isn’t super expensive I’m going to find it hard to bench him. He is 5 for 9 against Stults, and even though Stults has been effective, Posey destroys left handers at an insane clip.
- Wilin Rosario has started out the year hitting right handers better than left, but I chalk that up to small sample size. Last year he hit the same amount of home runs but had 112 less at bats against left handers to hit those in. Against Miley in Chase Field he should have a good shot to homer again.
- Jacoby Ellsbury has really been filling up the stat sheet each game. Leading off against Brad Peacock is also a fantasy goldmine as Peacock should probably still be in AAA. Ellsbury is also stealing bases frequently as he has 4 SB in the last 6 games.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Bautista | 0.713 | 0.146 | 0.325 | 0.98 | Sabathia – L | 3.34 | 0.333 |
| Adam Dunn | 0.721 | 0.095 | 0.212 | 1.07 | Moore – L | 1.04 | 0 |
| Michael Morse | 0.408 | 0.25 | 0.331 | 0.93 | Blanton – R | 7.84 | 0.246 |
| Josh Hamilton | 0.599 | 0.283 | 0.276 | 0.92 | Hernandez – R | 2.08 | 0.233 |
| Howie Kendrick | 1.023 | 0.328 | 0.343 | 0.93 | Hernandez – R | 2.08 | 0.274 |
| Yadier Molina | 0.762 | 0.3 | 0.339 | 0.99 | Burnett – R | 2.79 | 0.274 |
| Carlos Gonzalez | 0.31 | 0.345 | 0.404 | 1.06 | Miley – L | 2.77 | 0.391 |
| Carlos Pena | 0.366 | 0.25 | 0.285 | 1.09 | Doubront – L | 4.32 | 0.217 |
| JP Arencibia | 1.096 | 0.341 | 0.383 | 0.98 | Sabathia – L | 3.34 | 0.167 |
| Joe Mauer | 0.583 | 0.414 | 0.405 | 1.02 | Holland – L | 3.25 | 0.4 |
- Jose Bautista hasn’t started this year off the way he wanted I am sure, as he is being overshadowed by Encarnacion at this point. He has to face Sabathia who he is 1 for 19 off of with 8 strikeouts. I don’t like this at all especially with him struggling.
- Adam Dunn to me is a walking joke, as he has yet to get a hit off of a left hander this year. Dunn strikes out more than teenagers with acne and inch thick glasses and is just all around pathetic unless he hits a home run. He is facing Matt Moore who has been stellar this season, so his home run chances are slim.
- Oh how the mighty have fallen. Michael Morse started off the season on fire and has significantly cooled. Joe Blanton isn’t a terrible matchup, but Morse doesn’t know how to swing the bat right now as evidenced by his .408 OPS in the last 7. I would rather roll with Endy Chavez to be honest.
- We are still waiting for Josh Hamilton to get it together. Maybe it’s me remembering his 4 home run game from last year and not wanting to miss out on something like that this year. That is probably a poor decision and I’m going to sit him today against King Felix in Safeco has he is 8 for 48 career with 16 punchouts.
- Howie Kendrick I’m sitting too as most of the Angels have poor stats against Felix (not surprising). The only one who has been good was Trout in his insane season last year, and he isn’t matching it this year. I’m going to avoid all Angels today unless it’s impossible.
- Yadier Molina got on my nerves as I had him everywhere yesterday and he didn’t even get to face Sanchez as that bum got thrown out before Molina could jack one. Here he plays AJ Burnett who is pitching pretty well so far this season, and Molina’s BVP at 3 for 15 says avoid.
- Carlos Gonzalez still has respectable season numbers even after going hitless in 3 games. He s a good hitter but is really expensive and in a big slump. I’ll pass.
- Carlos Pena seems to have made a home hitting under the Mendoza Line. The problem is, he doesn’t bring any fielding prowess either. At this point, he is basically Adam Dunn. I don’t like him against Doubront even though he is in Fenway as he is ice cold right now and facing a left hander.
- J.P. Arencibia is putting up some nice numbers to the season and makes for a good value catcher on most nights, except this one. He should struggle as he is against Sabathia who has owned him so far in his career. Arencibia is 2 for 16 off Sabathia, and not many Jays have good stats against CC so runs may be at a premium in this game.
- Joe Mauer has returned to earth after a scorching last week. This week, his OPS is sitting at .583 as he hasn’t done much in the last couple of games. He is going to get hot again, but I’ll sit him today against Holland who has been solid to start the season.