Today's Hitter Breakdown: August 10th
With the PGA Championship going on, and football research to be done today, do not forget about baseball. We have a couple of early games which I passed on, and a few 4pm games which I included and then a bevy of later games. Not too much weather to be concerned about either.
Park Factors are starting to get back to normal with a bigger sample size, and it will continue to move towards the actual number as we get more games and more data.
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Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Upton | 1.654 | 0.325 | 0.368 | 0.93 | Eovaldi – R | 3.19 | 0.27 |
| Neil Walker | 1.121 | 0.298 | 0.339 | 0.98 | Nicasio – R | 5.05 | 0.276 |
| Matt Holliday | 0.899 | 0.306 | 0.353 | 0.9 | Villanueva – R | 4.16 | 0.282 |
| Pedro Alvarez | 0.675 | 0.287 | 0.335 | 0.98 | Nicasio – R | 5.05 | 0.247 |
| Shin-Soo Choo | 0.704 | 0.337 | 0.385 | 1.03 | Ross – R | 2.91 | 0.329 |
| Billy Butler | 0.988 | 0.32 | 0.348 | 0.93 | Doubront – L | 3.56 | 0.275 |
| Leonys Martin | 0.646 | 0.336 | 0.322 | 1.05 | Peacock – R | 7.25 | 0.293 |
| Chase Utley | 1.054 | 0.3 | 0.368 | 0.97 | Jordan – R | 3.76 | 0.308 |
| Stephen Drew | 1.093 | 0.324 | 0.338 | 1 | Guthrie – R | 3.96 | 0.278 |
| Joe Mauer | 0.54 | 0.38 | 0.372 | 0.99 | Rienzo – R | 1.39 | 0.319 |
- Justin Upton could be the hottest hitter on the planet right now. Remember back at the beginning of the season when he was doing exactly what he is doing now? Before his salary gets to Miguel Cabrera level, keep using him especially while the Braves are on this winning streak. Eovaldi has actually been worse against right handers than left giving up all 4 homers and a .783 OPS.
- I like Neil Walker as a cheap 2b option today as he is finally starting to get his bat on the ball. He is cheap everywhere and is finally putting some nice at bats together which is good news for him at Coors field today. Nicasio is pretty bad, and as noted below he usually struggles against left handed batters while Neil Walker does all of his damage against right handed pitchers.
- Again Matt Holliday gets to face a right hander, who he has hit all of his home runs off of this year. Villanueva started off the season hot, however has declined a little bit and has given up 9 homers against righties this year. I like Holliday even in Busch Stadium tonight.
- Pedro Alvarez gets a tantilizing matchup tonight against Nicasio in Coors Field. Nicasio has been total garbage in the last 2 starts. Although Nicasio has been ok against left handers this year he is not good against them in his career numbers and should be chased early by the Pirates lefties.
- Shin Soo Choo’s splits just keep getting more split. He is now at a 1.036 OPS vs right handers and .532 OPS against left handers. Luckily today he gets to face a right hander in Ross whose one weakness has been against right handers. Choo also gets to hit at home where he has a .957 OPS as well.
- Billy Butler hosts the Red Sox and Doubront today who should be a popular pick as a pitcher due to his left handed stats against the Royals. The one Royal who really does like hitting against left handers with a career .910 OPS and many home runs. Doubront has been good recently but if there is any chink in his armor it is right handers who have hit 7 homers against him this year and 20 in the previous years.
- Leonys Martin has been a very popular pick recently against right handers, and for very good reason. Martin is hitting at the top of the Rangers lineup which is high powered right now even without Cruz. Martin steals bases, crushes right handers at an .804 clip and has a really solid matchup against Peacock.
- If you do not like Walker and want to spend on 2nd base, go for Chase Utley who is hitting well in his last 7 days. Utley crushes right handers and Jordan has been ok but not spectacular recently.
- Guthrie is coming off a dominating performance against the Twins who put out a minor league lineup in their game. Guthrie will have to face the lefty heavy Red Sox tonight, and lefties are the ones that Guthrie cannot deal with. He has given up a .857 OPS with 15 homers against the left handers and Stephen Drew could be the hottest shortstop on the planet, now hitting after David Ortiz in the lineup. Drew does hit damage against right handers so it looks like a nice spot for him.
- Joe Mauer garbage last 7 days have lowered his salary a bit, but he is still a guy who puts good swings on the ball and finds ways to do positive things in at bats. Rienzo has been good, but can he keep this up? I do not think so, as he had a 4.06 average in the minors, so he is pitching above his abilities right now.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raul Ibanez | 0.571 | 0.273 | 0.347 | 0.95 | Gorzelanny – L | 2.78 | 0.252 |
| Ben Zobrist | 0.619 | 0.312 | 0.336 | 0.98 | Greinke – R | 3.4 | 0.291 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.617 | 0.285 | 0.38 | 0.97 | Lee – L | 3.13 | 0.179 |
| Kyle Seager | 0.443 | 0.322 | 0.364 | 0.95 | Gorzelanny – L | 2.78 | 0.238 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | 1.08 | 0.337 | 0.402 | 0.98 | Wheeler – R | 3.73 | 0.302 |
| Mike Moustakas | 0.831 | 0.246 | 0.29 | 1 | Doubront – L | 3.56 | 0.19 |
| Will Venable | 1.156 | 0.284 | 0.328 | 1.03 | Cingrani – L | 3.05 | 0.289 |
| Jean Segura | 0.597 | 0.341 | 0.353 | 0.95 | Iwakuma – R | 2.75 | 0.305 |
| Jason Kipnis | 0.829 | 0.352 | 0.372 | 1.02 | Wilson – L | 3.49 | 0.308 |
| Junior Lake | 0.536 | 0.4 | 0.368 | 0.9 | Wacha – R | 4.58 | 0.254 |
- Is the ridiculous homer streak for Ibanez over? I think so as he has not hit one as he hasn’t homered since July 12th and he is not doing much of anything right now. The Mariners hit well against righties but not lefties, so even against a guy like Gorzelanny I am going to fade them.
- I am not a big fan of Ben Zobrist today as he has to face Greinke who outdueled Wainright at Busch last time out. Greinke appears to have the big game stuff that he was scared of before, and has some numbers against the Rays from his time in the AL. He has dominated Zobrist giving up only 4 hits on 20 at bats and 8 strikeouts. Zobrist is not exactly hitting well right now so I am not a fan tonight.
- Bryce Harper has had a pretty pedestrian last week or so with a .617 OPS, so he is not exactly tearing the cover off the ball right now. Harper is really bad against left handers and even though Lee has been able to be scored on, it will not be Harper today with his meager .179 avg and .556 OPs against lefties.
- My man Kyle Seager has had a rought week, and has not hit left handers well at all this season. He faces Gorzelanny today who has been pretty effective in his time in the majors. As noted with Ibanez, the Mariners struggle against lefties so opportunites to do well should be rare for Kyle today.
- I think Zack Wheeler is in a good position for a nice game tonight against the D’Backs in Chase. A lot of the good bats on Arizona are right handed including Paul Goldschmidt, and Wheeler has actually been good against right handers this year holding them to a .633 OPS and less home runs than lefties. Wheeler should be able to keep Goldy in the park tonight.
- Mike Moustakas is the exact opposite as Billy Butler today as he is a lefty facing Doubront who cannot hit left handers. Moustakas even though he has been hitting well lately has a .548 OPS against left handers and Doubront has been good. I would really not like to have anyone but Butler on Kansas City today.
- The Padres do some good damage against right handed pitching just like the Mariners, however they are in for Cingrani today, a lefty who has been very good against lefties this year. Will Venable has some interesting stats and has been hitting well, but I am a bigger fan of Cingrani today than anyone on San Diego. Even though Venable hits lefties for average, he does not have much power against them and should be able to be held down today.
- Iwakuma has definitely figured out what was going on with him earlier and is back to his low WHIP ways. The Brewers are a total mess, and their explosion last night was only due to how much Saunders is just garbage against right handed batters. Jean Segura has been cold recently and I do not like anyone on the Brewers tonight, especially Segura.
- The Indians are almost in free fall mode right now after dropping the series to the Tigers and then another home game to the Angels. You have to wonder about their mental status, and even though Jason Kipnis has been ok recently, I like Wilson in the lefty/lefty matchup. Kipnis is better this year against lefties however he still would rather hit against a right hander and Wilson has done better against lefties.
- The hot hitting Junior Lake has cooled a bit in the last week with a .536 OPS and the damage he has done has mostly been against left handers who he will not get to face today. He will face the right handed Wacha who is a great prospect and should be able to hold the Cubs to very little hits.