Today's Hitter Breakdown: August 21st
A nice split slate today on this Wednesday so some picks from the early games will be featured here. Just to return to what I was talking about yesterday, Victorino hit right handed last night against the right handed Vogelsong as well and guess what, he hit a homer. Do you think he will forgo switch hitting when he can again? Probably not, but it is still something to think about if he continues to hit well from the right handed side of the plate.
Park Factors are starting to get back to normal with a bigger sample size, and it will continue to move towards the actual number as we get more games and more data.
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Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlon Byrd | 1.18 | 0.352 | 0.367 | 0.96 | Wood – L | 2.61 | 0.346 |
| Yadier Molina | 1.21 | 0.352 | 0.377 | 0.96 | Gorzelanny – L | 2.95 | 0.354 |
| Kyle Seager | 0.69 | 0.309 | 0.358 | 0.91 | Griffin – R | 3.76 | 0.311 |
| Dustin Pedroia | 0.657 | 0.317 | 0.341 | 0.95 | Zito – L | 5.34 | 0.331 |
| Chris Davis | 1.335 | 0.354 | 0.443 | 1.09 | Hellickson – R | 4.91 | 0.334 |
| Josh Hamilton | 0.89 | 0.264 | 0.303 | 0.99 | Masterson – R | 3.59 | 0.249 |
| Adam Lind | 1.215 | 0.319 | 0.358 | 1.02 | Warren – R | 3.57 | 0.294 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.891 | 0.29 | 0.374 | 1.04 | Arrieta – R | 4.91 | 0.308 |
| Neil Walker | 0.691 | 0.299 | 0.333 | 1 | Kennedy – R | 5.12 | 0.269 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.95 | Zito – L | 5.34 | 0 |
- I can not ignore what Marlon Byrd is doing anymore. His stats are actually very good against left handed batters as he is hitting them at a .346 clip and a .987 OPS. He has hit 4 homers in the last 7 days and is on fire right now. I imagine a lot of people will be high on Alex Wood but he is going to have to fade the hot bat of Byrd who is tearing it up for the Mets right now.
- If you have money to spend on a catcher, obviously Yadier Molina is the absolute top right now. He is absolutely on fire and is crushing left handed pitching on the season along with playing in Miller Park tonight. To reiterate how good Marlon Byrd has been this year, take a look at the stats of Byrd vs Molina up top, they are eerily similar for the season.
- I like Kyle Seager to homer tonight against Griffin, because something has to give with Griffin, either the long ball or his control. Griffin stopped his streak of allowing 2 homers in the last 2 games but he walked 6 and 5 respectively and only went 5 innings in the process. Griffin is a fly ball pitcher and if he tries to not walk people he is going to give up a jack, and possibly to Seager. If Morse is cheap as well I could see him jacking one too.
- I am not a fan of Barry Zito, not even pitching at home. I am not sure what he has to play for right now with the Giants being so bad, and I could see him getting lit up today against a very good Red Sox lineup. He was not good when he was put as a reliever and he has not been good as a starter either so I would expect a lot of Red Sox stacks tomorrow. Pedroia is just destroying left handers this year and in a blowout he can do everything.
- Here we go again, Chris Davis gets Hellickson at home today and Hellboy should be very, very afraid. In their careers, Davis has a nice BVP against Hellickson with a nice 10 for 24 and only one homer. He should be able to change that total today. Hellickson has a ERA north of 5 away from home and Davis loves hitting at Camden Yards, do not overthink this one too much.
- One of these times Josh Hamilton will come though, but I guess that’s what we have been saying for the entire season. At this point I am wondering if Hamilton will ever match his season last year when he looked like the best hitter on the planet. Against Masterson I do like his matchup though as Masterson struggles against lefties if he struggles against anyone and Hamilton’s success comes against right handers.
- The pride of Muncie, IN, Adam Lind, gets a chance to have another monster game tonight against Warren. Pettitte was scratched, probably for the best for the Yankees and youngster (relatively) Warren will take the hill. In relief he has been decent but has had trouble getting lefties out. Adam Lind does all of his damage against right handed pitching with a .901 OPS and should be able to abuse the short porch in right against Warren tonight.
- Bryce Harper is really cheap on all sites right now and he makes a very nice bargain play tonight. I would not use him against left handed pitching but against a right hander like Arrieta he is just too good of a hitter to pass up at this price. Harper bats toward the top of the lineup, and depending on the wind could be a very very good play today.
- Only one pick from the 6:40 game because I am not sure many sites will feature this one. If your site does, I love Neil Walker against Ian Kennedy today as walker is 6 for 12 with 2 homers, and hits right handers very well. Walker is another one of those switch hitters who I think should just give it up and hit with their better side. Kennedy has allowed 15 HR from lefties abd an .838 OPS while Walker has hit righties at a .812 OPS.
- Xander Bogaerts got his first start yesterday and it did not go as well as he would have hoped at the plate. I hope the Red Sox give him another shot tonight against Zito, as he should turn it around. Unfortunately he was against a right hander in Vogelsong last night who was not only right handed but pretty good, and I expect Zito to be the opposite.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alberto Callaspo | 0.703 | 0.256 | 0.305 | 0.91 | Iwakuma – R | 2.95 | 0.247 |
| Desmond Jennings | 0.65 | 0.306 | 0.327 | 0.98 | Chen – L | 3.23 | 0.323 |
| Brian Dozier | 0.546 | 0.278 | 0.319 | 1.07 | Sanchez – R | 2.5 | 0.217 |
| Dayan Viciedo | 0.833 | 0.281 | 0.301 | 0.94 | Guthrie – R | 4.15 | 0.244 |
| Alex Gordon | 0.29 | 0.311 | 0.319 | 1 | Rienzo – R | 3.7 | 0.244 |
| Matt Wieters | 0.874 | 0.244 | 0.31 | 1.09 | Hellickson – R | 4.91 | 0.214 |
| Jean Segura | 0.643 | 0.341 | 0.348 | 1.03 | Westbrook – R | 4.35 | 0.304 |
| Brian McCann | 0.6 | 0.276 | 0.37 | 0.9 | Niese – L | 4.25 | 0.224 |
| Yasiel Puig | 0.444 | 0.44 | 0.413 | 0.89 | Eovaldi – R | 3.96 | 0.345 |
| Josh Willingham | 0.922 | 0.274 | 0.338 | 1.07 | Sanchez – R | 2.5 | 0.218 |
- Alberto Callaspo had a couple of good games recently, but I really dislike him tonight against Iwakuma. Hisashi has been one of the league leaders in WHIP this year and even with a stretch with some pretty bad starts he has held his own recently. Callaspo has not been very good against right handers this year and only has an OPS of .653 against them.
- Welcome back Desmond Jennings, as he has had a couple of decent games since his return from the DL. Usually I would like him against Chen here but I am going to pass tonight as Chen has been pretty implosion proof even if he has not been good and Jennings is expensive along with a 2 for 15 history against Chen.
- Brian Dozier has been a pretty nice revelation this year hitting 12 homers and being a stalwart at the top of the Twins lineup. He has not been very good against right handed pitchers though only posting a .641 OPS and he has been even worse in the last week with a .546 OPS. He is 0 for 8 against Sanchez and I really do not like him against one of the Tigers better pitchers today.
- Dayan Viciedo last 7 OPS has been bolstered by a homer and a double, and if you take it back to the beginning of August, it’s a much more meager .414. Vicideo is pretty lost and faces a right hander in Guthrie who he is 1 for 13 off of with 7 strikeouts. This just seems like a terrible position.
- I am starting to believe in Alex Gordon struggles against right handed pitching, probably because he is struggling immensely right now. Gordon is one of the worst hitters in the last week, so unless he is really really cheap I would not use him tonight. The opposing pitcher is Rienzo who has also been pretty effective as well.
- With Matt Wieters really nice last couple of weeks he may look like a very solid option tonight however I would advise to think twice about using him. Wieters only has a .667 OPS against right handers this year and is doing his damage against left handed pitching. Wieters has always hit righties poorly and Hellickson is definitely right handed.
- Even though Westbrook has been absolute garbage in the last couple of starts, I still do not like the Brewers righties tonight. With all of his struggles he is still holding right handers to a .611 OPS on the season and Jean Segura has really been doing terrible since the all-star break. The 3 hit 2 steal games from Segura we were used to seeing just are not happening right now.
- Niese had a really nice start last time out, granted it was the Padres, however everything about the start was a positive. I would not want to use Brian McCann against him as McCann is completely lost against lefties this year averaging .224 with a .620 OPS. McCann has not done anything spectacular lately and has actually been pretty terriblein the last week other than 1 homer, so there are better catcher options.
- I am not going to say that Yasiel Puig is a terrible option today, however I am not going to be using him. His price is still really high and other than the homer last night he has not been doing much lately. His BABIP is still absurdly unsustainable at .440, and this regression appears to be completely normal. Yes, Eovaldi did get lit up in the last game but his previous starts had nothing like that and the 9 ER is not the norm for him.
- Just like with Dozier, Josh Willingham has a history of crushing left handed pitching, however they are against a good righty today in Sanchez. I am not a big fan of Willingham especially with his 2 for 16 mark with 7 strikeouts against Sanchez. The Tigers need a shutdown game and Sanchez should provide that.