Today's Hitter Breakdown: August 23rd
Here goes a giant night in fantasy baseball. I think there might be a good distribution of players owned across the board tonight as there are some really balanced matchups. One thing to keep an eye on is my Victorino saga where I have been following his quest at hitting only right handed due to an injury. I am really interested in his matchup tonight as he has a pathetic BVP against Nolasco hitting left handed so I want to know what he can do right handed this time.
Park Factors are starting to get back to normal with a bigger sample size, and it will continue to move towards the actual number as we get more games and more data.
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Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Wieters | 1.107 | 0.241 | 0.31 | 1.09 | Straily – R | 4.22 | 0.217 |
| Jay Bruce | 0.452 | 0.334 | 0.344 | 1.04 | Gallardo – R | 4.68 | 0.273 |
| Troy Tulowitzki | 1.179 | 0.332 | 0.407 | 0.89 | Koehler – R | 4.66 | 0.318 |
| Bryce Harper | 1.004 | 0.295 | 0.377 | 1 | Davis – R | 5.43 | 0.302 |
| Matt Dominguez | 1.114 | 0.246 | 0.291 | 1.03 | Redmond – R | 3.32 | 0.239 |
| Adam Lind | 1.177 | 0.32 | 0.359 | 1.07 | Lyles – R | 5.59 | 0.296 |
| Kyle Seager | 0.687 | 0.306 | 0.354 | 0.95 | Richards – R | 4.24 | 0.306 |
| Carl Crawford | 0.668 | 0.327 | 0.331 | 0.97 | Lackey – R | 3.22 | 0.306 |
| Stephen Drew | 0.621 | 0.312 | 0.328 | 0.97 | Nolasco – R | 3.6 | 0.274 |
| Austin Jackson | 0.755 | 0.328 | 0.329 | 0.96 | Matsuzaka – R | 0 | 0.298 |
- Yes, Matt Wieters is usually better against left handers but he can still homer against anyone, and the BVP proves it. He has a perfect OPS against Straily as he has 2 homers in 2 at bats and a walk in their 3 meetings. Wieters is hot right now and should be a nice catcher play tonight.
- You never know what you are going to get from Gallardo this year as he can get lit up or give you a 0 ER outing. He’s already had his 0 ER outing last time out so in Great American against some powerful lefties he is sure to get lit up. Jay Bruce has the best BVP of the bunch with 13 for 34 with 3 homers for a 1.280 OPS. He is cold, so he should be cheap but can turn it around at any time.
- I am not really sure what to make of Koehler this year, however Troy Tulowitzki is another story as he is hitting right handers at a .977 OPS. If you can afford him, he is the best shortstop right now with a solid OPS in his last 7. Koehler is strange and has been worse at Marlins park this year and been worse against right handers giving up most of his homers against them, and Tulo is hot.
- Bryce Harper is back, and he is hitting. His price was a bit low earlier but it is rising, and it will continue to rise as he will feast on those right handed pitchers. I love him tonight against Wade Davis who just is not very good this year and is giving up a .955 OPS to lefties in 254 at bats. Roll with the Nationals tonight.
- Yes, I am recommending an Astro. Guys like Grossman, Carter, and Castro have been solid plays at times this season, and I think that Matt Dominguez can be a solid play as well, as the guy does have 17 homers on the season with 3 in the last 6 days. He is hitting well against right handers and Redmond has been pitching above his ability so far. If Dominguez is cheap, do not be so quick to dismiss him.
- I love Adam Lind tonight, in fact, I love all of the power hitters from the Jays tonight, but I feature Lind because he is hot and facing a terrible right hander. Peacock’s OPS of 1.034 against left handers pretty much says it all and I would like Lind tonight at first base instead of Encarnacion as he is most likely much cheaper.
- Even with Kyle Seager recent cold streak it does not scare me away from using him against a right hander, especially one that he is 6 for 11 against. Richards had a good run, but had a bad start last time out and the Mariners have really good stats against right handed pitching. There should be plenty of opportunities for Seager to do damage tonight.
- Carl Crawford has a long history against Lackey with their time together in the AL with their different teams, and Crawford has gotten the best of Lackey with a 21 for 45 mark with 2 homers and 5 stolen bases. I refuse to believe that Crawford is not a valuable fantasy player anymore and am a big fan of him tonight against the righty tonight.
- On the other side of the ball, Stephen Drew has a great history against Nolasco with his 11 for 21 mark with 3 homers. Drew has really done some damage with that 1.736 OPS. He gets to reunite with Nolasco, and even with his good recent history I am still not a believer in Nolasco. I think the Red Sox could make a sneaky good stack play tonight and Drew should be a big part of it.
- With Dice-K starting for the Mets against the Tigers, a lot can be thought. He wasn’t horrible in AAA, but his performance and reports do not give you anything to be excited about. I think this says more about Austin Jackson than it does about Dice-K, as Jackson is more of a streaky hitter than you might imagine. A-Jax when he is hitting is a BABIP monster and he can find the gaps anywhere. He has some solid power and has always hit right handers very well. If you like the Tigers against Dice-K, Jackson is a guy you can’t leave off.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aramis Ramirez | 1.02 | 0.294 | 0.342 | 0.95 | Bailey – R | 3.68 | 0.281 |
| Adam Dunn | 0.846 | 0.262 | 0.327 | 1 | Perez – L | 3.48 | 0.22 |
| Leonys Martin | 0.644 | 0.336 | 0.319 | 1 | Sale – L | 2.78 | 0.247 |
| Mike Moustakas | 0.697 | 0.252 | 0.29 | 1 | Gonzalez – L | 3.38 | 0.191 |
| Justin Upton | 1.067 | 0.324 | 0.37 | 1.02 | Wainwright- R | 2.66 | 0.266 |
| Josh Hamilton | 0.94 | 0.266 | 0.304 | 0.95 | Hernandez – R | 2.62 | 0.251 |
| Pablo Sandoval | 1.101 | 0.29 | 0.309 | 1 | Morton – R | 3.67 | 0.27 |
| Neil Walker | 0.938 | 0.286 | 0.351 | 0.95 | Bumgarner – L | 2.82 | 0.143 |
| Chase Utley | 0.735 | 0.296 | 0.363 | 1.06 | Miley – L | 3.56 | 0.216 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 1.178 | 0.31 | 0.362 | 0.89 | Chacin – R | 3.24 | 0.24 |
- Aramis Ramirez has been pretty good in the last few days, hitting a couple of homers, but I do not like him today. The man with the terrible name for a pitcher has some really good stats against the Ramirez in his career holding him to 5 for 20 with a .635 OPS and this Brewers lineup is pretty pathetic. Ramirez is a good hitter but he is not great and he cannot do it himself against a guy who has held righties to a .571 OPS.
- I am not too big of a fan of Adam Dunn tonight against Perez, who has been solid this year as Dunn only has 5 homers all year against left handed pitching and Perez only has allowed 2. Dunn has changed things up in his swing to put it in play more often and it is helping out his average, but it appears he is still striking out a ridiculous amount of times. More singles and less homers for Dunn = angry fantasy customers.
- Everyone’s favorite Rangers value play, Leonys Martin, travels to Chicago to take on the lefty crushing ways of Chris Sale today. Sale has held lefties to a .379 OPS and 0 homers, and has allowed lefties to steal on him one time this whole season. Martin is a bit worse against left handers and does not hit homers against them. I would not use him today.
- Gio Gonzalez seems to have righted the ship after his disastrous start against the Tigers and takes on the Royals today who were not a good offense really even while winning. Gonzalez is good against lefties giving up a .466 OPS and the Royals have a lot of them including Mike Moustakas who hits lefties at a meager .547 OPS.
- Justin Upton returned from his back issue last night to smash a homer so that does not seem to bother him, however Wainwright could. Wainwright has really dominated the Braves that he has met before, and without the services of Heyward, the lineup does not look so intimidating. Justin Upton strength is clearly more left handed pitching, so I would avoid him today as he is also 0 for 10 against Wainwright.
- I am resenting Josh Hamilton and the Angels because they could not get it done against the Indians pitching this week. They now go to Safeco to hit against one of the best pitchers in the game, so who is to say they can get it done here? Hamilton is just terrible, and even though he hits right handers well, his 8 for 56 mark with only 1 homer against Hernandez is not what you want to see when picking him.
- Aside from a 4 hit game last week, Pablo Sandoval has been terrible. He has doubled a couple of times, but he is still homerless and he looks like he has eaten something fierce while not playing, probably to make him feel better about how terrible the Giants are. Charlie Morton has actually been decent and is going deep into games, and has a good history against Sandoval holding him to 4 hits on 19 at bats. I do not think Sandoval brings much upside here.
- Just do not use Neil Walker tonight. I expect the Pirates will probably sit him, but in case they don’t, do not be fooled. He has a .490 OPS agianst left handers, and in general cannot hit them. Bumgarner has been very very good and gives no reason to believe that the right handed light hitting Walker can do any damage against him.
- I am not a big fan of Chase Utley tonight with his .216 average against left handers on the season. Miley has been great recently, only givingup more than 2 ER twice in his last 9 starts, and those were only 3 and 4. He has picked 8 innings 3 times and 7 innings 3 times as well so there is no reason to believe that Utley will get the chance to hit against the relievers.
- I am going to stay away from Giancarlo Stanton tonight even though he has been heating up with 3 homers in the last 6 games, and the reason is really Chacin. Jhoulys has been dominant away from Coors field, only allowing 2 home runs away all season in 63 innings and posting a sparkling 2.14 ERA away from the hitter’s park. He has been good against right handers as well holding them to a .617 OPS. Stanton hits better against lefties and has no team to back him up.