Today's Hitter Breakdown: August 3rd
My apologies for no article yesterday, the Chelsea/Inter game got the best of me. I will try to make up for it with some good picks today. I have a couple of plays from the early games in case you are playing early today but also most from the night games. Good luck to everyone playing in the DFBC, it would be an incredible experience to be there and to be competing for the cool $200k first place prize.
Park Factors are starting to get back to normal with a bigger sample size, and it will continue to move towards the actual number as we get more games and more data.
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Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Davis | 0.946 | 0.358 | 0.441 | 1.08 | Ramirez – R | 7.71 | 0.337 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.844 | 0.327 | 0.37 | 0.88 | De La Rosa – L | 3.21 | 0.362 |
| Austin Jackson | 0.578 | 0.334 | 0.324 | 1.1 | Danks – L | 4.57 | 0.182 |
| Trevor Plouffe | 0.427 | 0.276 | 0.308 | 1.01 | Bedard – L | 4.28 | 0.356 |
| Curtis Granderson | 0.333 | 0.286 | 0.319 | 1.01 | Ross – R | 2.9 | 0.261 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.904 | 0.296 | 0.385 | 1.03 | Hand – R | 3.59 | 0.32 |
| Hanley Ramirez | 0.8 | 0.401 | 0.456 | 1.03 | Samardzija – R | 3.75 | 0.383 |
| Carlos Ruiz | 0.652 | 0.281 | 0.261 | 1 | Beachy – R | 17.18 | 0.212 |
| Chase Utley | 0.594 | 0.291 | 0.36 | 1 | Beachy – R | 17.18 | 0.291 |
| Chris Johnson | 1.202 | 0.43 | 0.37 | 1 | Lannan – L | 4.1 | 0.391 |
- All it took was a home trip for Chris Davis to get back on track and start homering again. He has 3 homers in the last 4 games and has a solid shot to do so again. The most impressive thing to me is that he has cut down his strikeouts showing that he is seeing the ball a lot better. Ramirez has struggled this year and has struggled in Safeco as well, making his trip to Camden someone to stack against.
- The impressive numbers for Andrew McCutchen against left handed pitchers just keeps getting better. He has a 1.103 OPS this year against left handed pitchers and hits against one today who has really struggled away from Coors Field in De La Rosa. The last time De La Rosa pitched away he gave up 5 ER to the Braves. He struggles against right handed batting so this looks like a great spot for Cutch.
- Austin Jackson has been average in the last couple weeks but with his home run last night it looks like he might be ready for a tear. Usually he hits much better against right handed pitchers, however he is facing a guy in Danks who he has had much success off in his career. He is 12 for 29 with 3 homers and a 1.278 OPS against Danks and also is a better hitter at home. The Tigers are rolling right now and he will have opportunites to score.
- Trevor Plouffe is the bargain pick of the day. He destroys left handed pitching and hits better at home than on the road. Bedard is worse against right handed bats and also struggles on the road, so the numbers are all in Plouffe’s favor today. Plouffe will not break the bank and does bring some solid home run power at 3rd.
- Curtis Granderson played a bit last night and I am expecting him to get the start today. If he does, it could be a big boost to the Yankees especially against Tyson Ross. Ross has been good this year but his weakness is the lefty and Granderson is a lefty with a lot of power. Grandy should be cheap most places just coming off the DL and makes a nice option.
- Bryce Harper really likes hitting against right handers, who he has hit 13 of his 15 homers against and currently has a 1.042 OPS against them. His numbers are eerily similar to Shin-Soo Choo numbers who is completely inept against left handed pitching so it is a good thing that he is hitting against the right handed Hand. Hand has really gotten owned by lefies this year surrendering a .929 OPS.
- Hanley Ramirez has really come back to Earth in the past month but in the shortstop pool he is the only one that I really like tonight. He is hitting right handers very well and gets to hit against Samardzija in Wrigley, where the shark has been poor this year. It is a bit concerning that he is against a pitcher who is pitching well, and you will have to pay for him but he looks like a solid option.
- Carlos Ruiz had a breakout year last year but has not really done much this year at all, being injured and all. He is still criminally underpriced at many sites and faces a guy in Beachy who he is 5 for 11 off with 1 homer. Beachy was absolute garbage in his first start and could run into problems today in Citizens Bank against some of the Phillies righties and Ruiz.
- Chase Utley has 5 hits in the last 4 games including 2 homers and looks to be getting it back together after a brutal stretch where the Phillies did nothing productive whatsoever. As noted above, Beachy had a very rough outing last time out and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Utley go deep tonight.
- Chris Johnson is UNCONSCIOUS right now at the plate, going for multi hit games in his last 8 games. He is racking up huge fantasy points every time out and last I checked his salary had not quite caught up to it. If you can still find him at a bargain, fill him in and do not be sad about it because he is the closest thing you can get to a guarantee right now.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nelson Cruz | 0.956 | 0.306 | 0.361 | 0.97 | Parker – R | 4.07 | 0.268 |
| Jason Heyward | 1.067 | 0.256 | 0.323 | 1.06 | Lannan – L | 4.1 | 0.235 |
| Todd Helton | 0.629 | 0.296 | 0.318 | 0.89 | Liriano – L | 2.16 | 0.302 |
| Alex Rios | 0.44 | 0.308 | 0.326 | 1.1 | Scherzer – R | 3.01 | 0.265 |
| David Ortiz | 0.887 | 0.331 | 0.414 | 1.06 | Corbin – L | 2.24 | 0.273 |
| Pablo Sandoval | 0.829 | 0.294 | 0.316 | 0.95 | Price – L | 3.57 | 0.289 |
| Carlos Quentin | 0.594 | 0.297 | 0.371 | 0.89 | Nova – R | 3.4 | 0.272 |
| Matt Carpenter | 0.244 | 0.338 | 0.373 | 1.03 | Cingrani – L | 2.9 | 0.307 |
| Coco Crisp | 0.301 | 0.256 | 0.315 | 0.91 | Garza – R | 2.95 | 0.268 |
| Desmond Jennings | 0.361 | 0.303 | 0.327 | 0.95 | Lincecum – R | 4.6 | 0.227 |
- Nelson Cruz gets the uncomfortable fate of having to think about being suspended in a day or 2. Even with how much he is to deny it, I am sure that it has to have some effect. Cruz has to face Jarrod Parker who he has really struggled against in the past going 0 for 14 with 6 strikeouts. Aside from Parker’s terrible last start, he has been good for a while and has been solid against right handers all season.
- Jason Heyward has been rejuvenated in the leadoff role for the Braves, but before you plug him in, I am not having a good feeling about his chances today against Lannan. Lannan has been effective this year, and has always been better against left handed batters. Heyward has also struggled against lefty pitchers hitting for lower power and average. Just be careful as this is not the best matchup for Heyward.
- After one hiccup, Liriano has been fantastic in his last 2 starts. The move to sign him by the Pirates looks like a good gamble now as he has only allowed left handers to hit at a .331 OPS and righties even to hit at a meager .630 OPS. He is dominant at home not allowing a homer yet, so Todd Helton looks like a terrible option along with all of the other lefties on Colorado. In fact, I would avoid the entire team hitting at PNC, this one could be ugly.
- Alex Rios is just one of the many White Sox that has garbage numbers against Max Scherzer. Rios is 3 for 27 with 8 KO, Ramirez 3 for 33 with 3 KO, De Aza 4 for 20 with 8 KO, and the list goes on. Scherzer is at home and the White Sox have been downright embarrassing, trying to get the 2nd worst record in baseball. Scherzer could rack up the KOs pretty easily here.
- To get the most out of David Ortiz’s salary, you want to use him against a bad right handed pitcher. Corbin does not fit that bill. While Oritz has been hot lately, he still only has a .752 OPS against lefties on the season and Corbin is holding lefties to a .471 OPS only allowing 2 homers all year and no homers at all in the last 3 games. To get max value out of his monster salary, you should use Ortiz on a different day.
- Pablo Sandoval has the misfortune of hitting in the middle of a terrible Giants lineup that is struggling to score runs. Price has had some struggles but should only have to worry about Posey and Sandoval, and not even Sandoval really as he has been just average lately. The Panda has not homered since July 11th and only has 1 homer since coming off the DL, so that is not much of a threat nowadays.
- Ivan Nova must have learned how to pitch when he was in the minors as he has been very solid for the Yankees since returning. He is going deep into games and striking guys out. I am not a fan of Carlos Quentin as Quentin usually does most of his damage against lefties and Nova has been good. Quentin usually does not have too much upside hitting in this Padres lineupm especially with his knee issue right now that he has held him out a few games.
- Matt Carpenter is ice cold right now and is not worth his inflated salary. He is really struggling to put the ball in play and has to face a lefty in Cingrani who has only allowed a .565 OPS and 1 homer to lefties this year. The Cardinals have managed to score a ton of runs in the last 2 games and Carpenter has not had a hit in either game.
- Coco Crisp has to face Garza tonight which does not bode well for him. Although Crisp does hit righties better than left, he is in more of a pitchers park against a guy who has been lights out in the past 8 games whether being with Texas or Chicago. Back on July 3rd, Garza held Crisp to 1 hit on 4 at bats and completely limited the Oakland offense. Crisp has been really struggling lately and I expect that to continue.
- Desmond Jennings had a time in June and July when he was doing a ton of good things with the bat and was making value almost every night. Lately however he has been struggling, making it 9 games in a row with at least 1 strikeout and multiple games with 2 or 3. He has not had a multiple hit games since July 20th and none of his hits are going for extra bases. He is hitting .227 with a .675 OPS against right handers and his matchup against Lincecum leaves much to be desired as Tim has gotten back to his big strikeout ways.