Today's Hitter Breakdown: Fri, July 18th

by Jon Schiller (Varncass) Last Updated 2014-07-18 19:01:53

Welcome to the Daily Batter Breakdown. Each day, with at least 8 games on the night slate, I’ll breakdown some of the best top tier hitters to target based on matchup. The biggest split taken into account will be left/right, but each player card will also show park factors, player salaries and then a description of why I’ll be targeting him. Be sure to check out the FAQ for more information on specific stats.

I hope everyone had a great all star break, but today it’s time to get back to the grind just like all of the players as well. Not a lot of good hitting situations it appears so it will be important to pick your spots as there are some very solid pitchers pitching today and a lot low over/unders.

		Brian McCann
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.209	0.590	2.84%	0.264
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.355	0.783	0.00%	0.341
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Leake – RIGHT			0.279	0.754	5.14%	0.335
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.087	1.040	$2,800		$7,200	$3,700		$5,000

Brian McCann

This game has one of the highest over/unders of the day and it might be mainly because of David Phelps pitching on the other side. No matter, the Yankees are still favored and McCann has a great history of hitting right handers very well. Leake has been decently solid this year but has been poor against lefties giving up 8 HR and an .857 OPS. McCann has started to hit a bit better lately and should be in a solid spot as a catcher today.

		Miguel Cabrera
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.331	0.936	4.55%	0.400
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.278	0.818	0.00%	0.334
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Bauer – RIGHT			0.269	0.762	7.81%	0.334
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.139	1.090	$4,900		$12,200	$6,100		$10,000

Miguel Cabrera

Cabrera has been a bit worse in June and July than earlier in the year but I’m expecting a big last half of the month of him here after he was able to get some relaxation and have some fun at the all star game. He has always crushed right handed pitching and even though its well under his career average, his .922 OPS against righties this year still is solid. Bauer has consistently given up 3-4 ER per start this year and has reverse splits being worse against right handers, with a .785 OPS against them.

		Gordon Beckham
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.205	0.600	2.50%	0.269
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.083	0.287	0.00%	0.13
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Feldman – RIGHT			0.241	0.670	6.32%	0.303
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.998	0.971	$2,500		$6,950	$3,600		$4,900

Gordon Beckham

Beckham has some strange reverse splits this year but I’m going with the last 3 years of his stats where he’s hit 25 HR off right handers compared to 6 for lefties. His OPS is almost .100 points higher against righties in his career, so facing Feldman today at home should be very good for the 2nd baseman. Feldman has had some really awful blowups this year and is usually pretty poor no matter who he is facing. I really like Beckham today for around minimum salary to do some damage against Feldman.

		Adrian Beltre
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.330	0.916	4.78%	0.395
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.370	1.117	7.41%	0.478
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Dickey – RIGHT			0.232	0.697	6.94%	0.312
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.118	1.060	$4,700		$10,700	$5,300		$9,100

Adrian Beltre

Beltre hasn’t had much protection in the lineup this year but he’s still managed a very very good year. He has a great matchup today against Dickey who has allowed a .760 OPS and 12 HR to right handers in almost the same amount of at bats that he’s given up 4 against lefties. Beltre really doesn’t care about handedness and has hit righties to a .912 OPS and 11 HRs this year. I really like this spot for the Rangers big righty bats.

		Jhonny Peralta
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.247	0.734	4.26%	0.324
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.409	1.053	4.55%	0.446
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Haren – RIGHT			0.287	0.783	3.60%	0.347
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.892	0.939	$3,300		$8,800	$3,600		$6,200

Jhonny Peralta

I have always targeted Haren this year and it has worked out well so far, especially lately. Haren’s WHIP and all of his other stats are awful in the last 2 games with 12 ER and 3 HR in 9 innings. He had one good start but is one of the safest pitchers you can target. I like the Cardinals righties especially Peralta who has been hitting well lately and has a nice HR % against right handed pitching. Haren has allowed a .809 OPS against right handers as well.

		David Peralta
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.359	0.918	3.26%	0.401
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.286	0.794	0.00%	0.343
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Jackson – RIGHT			0.308	0.841	10.36%	0.377
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.974	0.970	$3,300		$7,400	$3,700		$6,500

David Peralta

Peralta has been a godsend really for the Diamondbacks in the outfield after being converted from a pitcher. Peralta has hit .346 with a .880 OPS and 3 HR in 104 at bats and is still really cheap across the industry. Today he faces off against Jackson at Chase Field in a game which has one of the highest over/unders of the day. There should be some runs in this one and Jackson is the guy to allow them. Jackson has given up a .904 OPS to left handers, and has been generally terrible this year. Load up your D’Backs.

		Alex Rios
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.285	0.689	0.74%	0.301
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.267	0.757	3.33%	0.329
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Dickey – RIGHT			0.232	0.697	6.94%	0.312
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.118	1.060	$3,100		$9,750	$4,500		$7,300

Alex Rios

Rios has been really poor against right handers this year but I still like him today against Dickey who has struggled against other righties this year. Rios is much better against right handers than he has shown this year and I would expect some correction in his stats somewhat soon. The Rangers are even favored to win this game against the Jays and if they can snap out of the funk I think they should be a good source of value today.

		Rajai Davis
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.255	0.640	1.91%	0.286
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.471	1.147	0.00%	0.484
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Bauer – RIGHT			0.269	0.762	7.81%	0.334
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.139	1.090	$3,300		$8,400	$4,100		$7,500

Rajai Davis

I mentioned above how Bauer has been actually worse against right handed pitching, well, that should help Davis here. Davis is known for his destruction of left handed pitching, but is also useful against right handed pitching despite a .256 average because of his propensity to steal bases against right handers. Bauer hasn’t been great at picking anyone off and I can see Davis running wild against Bauer in this one.

		Matt Joyce
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.283	0.816	2.65%	0.354
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.308	0.913	7.69%	0.386
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Gibson – RIGHT			0.303	0.773	7.82%	0.346
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.020	1.019	$3,300		$7,700	$3,900		$6,500

Matt Joyce

I have targeted Kyle Gibson a bunch of times this year but I have only hit one of his blowups once. I’m still doing it because it’s almost a guarantee to grab a homer when he is awful. Gibson has allowed a .720 OPS to lefties and Joyce being a righty specialist has hit .807 OPS against them and with 6 HR this year. He’s cheap and has power and I like him today in GPPs.

		Jay Bruce
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.241	0.717	2.05%	0.315
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.276	0.921	10.34%	0.396
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Phelps – RIGHT			0.235	0.702	9.27%	0.320
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.087	1.040	$3,500		$9,350	$4,500		$7,600

Jay Bruce

I really like Bruce today even though he hasn’t had the kind of season that he would like. This game has one of the highest over/unders and with the short porch in Yankee stadium it makes it better for a pull hitter like Bruce. Bruce is cheap and has a solid matchup here.