Today's Hitter Breakdown: July 23rd
On this Tuesday of the last few qualifiers, we have a bunch of no name or bad pitchers throwing tonight, which should make for some high scores some would think, however Vegas has not set a team runs line higher than 4.5, so it is really going to be about matchups and picking the right team tonight. Also, be careful with the Giants/Reds doubleheader tonight as it appears it varies site to site which game is going to be used.
Park Factors are starting to get back to normal with a bigger sample size, and it will continue to move towards the actual number as we get more games and more data.
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Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desmond Jennings | 0.669 | 0.308 | 0.339 | 1.05 | Lester – L | 4.58 | 0.342 |
| JJ Hardy | 1.059 | 0.256 | 0.318 | 0.94 | Chen – L | 2.04 | 0.229 |
| Josh Reddick | 0.795 | 0.257 | 0.291 | 1.04 | Cosart – R | 0 | 0.226 |
| Josh Hamilton | 0.44 | 0.261 | 0.297 | 1.01 | Gibson – R | 6.45 | 0.248 |
| Albert Pujols | 0.732 | 0.248 | 0.321 | 1.04 | Gibson – R | 6.45 | 0.261 |
| Adam LaRoche | 0.154 | 0.292 | 0.344 | 0.94 | Cole – R | 3.89 | 0.25 |
| Conor Gillaspie | 1 | 0.282 | 0.302 | 1.01 | Porcello – R | 4.8 | 0.268 |
| Robinson Cano | 0.743 | 0.306 | 0.383 | 1.03 | Ogando – R | 2.93 | 0.316 |
| Hanley Ramirez | 1.363 | 0.398 | 0.488 | 1.07 | Redmond – R | 4.32 | 0.419 |
| Victor Martinez | 1.078 | 0.284 | 0.312 | 0.87 | Santiago – L | 3.3 | 0.258 |
- Desmond Jennings has been producing at a high rate for the entire month of July and is a big part of the Rays resurgence into the elite of the AL East. Jennings is posting multiple hit games about half the time and gets extra base hits and steals bags. He has a 8 for 22 history against Lester with a 1.073 OPS so if you are looking for someone with a solid matchup against Boston, Jennings is your guy.
- JJ Hardy was ice cold for a while there at the end of June and beginning of July, and his price dropped as such. Now he seems to have gotten it back together as he has hit 2 homers in the last 8 games and has 3 multiple hit games in the last 3. Hardy makes a really solid power shortstop option for a reduced price. His opponent Chen has been pitching well but is pitching well above his career averages.
- Finally Josh Reddick proves that he can still hit a long ball after the struggles he has been having this season. This could be the start of the hot streak, and Reddick gets to hit in Minute Maid against tonight against Cosart. Cosart had a very impressive major league debut, but he is not going to pitch shutouts every time out and one start does not make an ace. If you are looking to save a little bit in the outfield but still keep the homer potential, Reddick could be your guy.
- Josh Hamilton is becoming the ultimate risk/reward play as he very often goes 0/4 with 2 strikeouts, but then has a 2 homer game to make up for all of that. It looks like the Angels are going to be my team to target tonight as I have stacked against Gibson in the past and never been disappointed. If you can grab Hamilton at a low price, his potential alone makes him worth a roster spot. Be careful however, as he was scrated from yesterday’s lineup with a sore ankle.
- Albert Pujols has been a bit of a disappointment this year, but all that means is that he is completely affordable. His strength is really batting against right handers, and Gibson should be easy pickins for Pujols and the Angels lineup. 13 of Pujols 16 homers are off of right handers as well, and his average is higher at home as well.
- An under the radar play that makes a solid start tonight is Conor Gillaspie who gets to hit against Porcello. You never know what you will get from Porcello, but as a Tigers fan, it just feels like one of those nights where he just gets owned. Gillaspie’s homers have all come off right handers and he has a decent home run rate in the majors. In addition, Porcello is allowing a much higher OPS to left handers than right handers.
- I really like Robinson Cano tonight, as he gets to face Ogando who has just came off the DL. Ogando’s stats do not really favor Cano as much as one would hope, but Ogando is pitching his first game in a while and could be a bit rusty and leave one up there for Cano. Cano is usually pretty matchup proof and if you can afford him he is one of the top options at 2nd tonight.
- The train just keeps trucking on as Hanley Ramirez has gotten back on the hot streak. Homers in 2 of his last 4, multiple hit games in his last 3, and runs score in his last 4 since the all star break are pretty impressive numbers. Against Redmond, do not get cute and try to fate the hottest hitter right now.
- If Victor Martinez can go 4 for 5 against Sale, I am wondering what he can do against Santiago. Martinez is one of the hottest hitters in his own right, so like I have said before, I am going to keep using him until he is the top priced catcher on the board, as he is rarely disappointing nowadays.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Votto | 0.74 | 0.379 | 0.401 | 0.96 | Zito – L | 4.88 | 0.27 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 0.922 | 0.268 | 0.336 | 1.01 | Corbin – L | 2.35 | 0.209 |
| Kelly Johnson | 1.417 | 0.286 | 0.342 | 1.07 | Lester – L | 4.58 | 0.319 |
| Billy Butler | 0.661 | 0.312 | 0.338 | 0.94 | Hammel – R | 5.24 | 0.277 |
| Austin Jackson | 0.364 | 0.341 | 0.327 | 0.87 | Santiago – L | 3.3 | 0.149 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.733 | 0.313 | 0.291 | 1.02 | Parker – R | 3.95 | 0.278 |
| Justin Upton | 0.544 | 0.312 | 0.348 | 0.97 | Torres – R | 0.79 | 0.256 |
| Miguel Montero | 0.62 | 0.27 | 0.289 | 1.01 | Wood – L | 2.79 | 0.202 |
| Gerardo Parra | 0.404 | 0.32 | 0.33 | 1.01 | Wood – L | 2.79 | 0.235 |
| A.J. Pierzynski | 0.588 | 0.303 | 0.326 | 1.03 | Hughes – R | 4.57 | 0.3 |
- Joey Votto scares me tonight against Zito because of 2 things, he is hitting in AT&T park and Zito is a master there, so if you believe in those home/road splits for Zito, it may be a very poor decision to load up on the Reds lefties in Game #1. Make sure that you know which game is going to be included on whatever site you are using as well because Votto will get a bump facing Surkamp in the late game.
- Making today’s avoids list was one of the tougher things for me to do. There are a lot of good options out there and hardly any stud pitchers, but the best pitcher is against the Cubs at home. Rizzo is not hitting lefties very well and Corbin has been stellar at home and brutal against left handed batters. Rizzo is the one sure thing I want to avoid.
- Kelly Johnson has been hot recently, but those at bats have been against right handed batters. Johnson is killing righties this year, but he does not have a homer against a lefty yet. I would exercise caution tonight on using him against Lester as usually he is an upside play due to homer potential, but I am not sure how good the chance is that he hits one tonight.
- I am not a fan of using Billy Butler against right handed pitchers, although sometimes it does warrant use. I am not sure today does as Butler seems to be entering into a struggle streak. The KC offense is pretty miserable right now, holding Butler’s ceiling back, and with all of the other awesome options out there today, you can find a better one.
- Austin Jackson did manage to get a double last game, but it was off of right handed Troncoso in the 9th inning, not the lefty Sale, so Jackson’s struggles against left handed pitching continue. Santiago is also left handed and I want Jackson to prove to me he can do damage other than just a single against a lefty before I will trot him out in my lineups.
- With Parker looking like one of the top pitching options tonight, again it looks like time to never consider any Astros bats. Usually Altuve is a good filler option at 2nd base, but Parker has been decent lately and really has not allowed right handers to do much all year. There just is not anything to like about Houston.
- Justin Upton looked like he was going to start hitting a hot streak again, but then had a couple of 0 for 4’s in his last 2 games. I am not a bit fan, and was impressed at what Carlos Torres was able to do. Torres has also pitched well against the Braves when he has seen them last, so I am not high on Atlanta today, as they have been struggling to score runs a bit lately.
- It has been a while since I have trash talked Miguel Montero, however now appears to be a good time. He has been terribly disappointing this year, posting a .649 OPS on the season, and even worse a .514 OPS against left handers. Bring Travis Wood into the equation, who is allowing only a .417 OPS against lefties, and it would be better if Nieves was to play instead of Montero.
- Gerardo Parra has not been as bad as Montero across the whole season, but recently he has been worse, as he has a ton of oh-fers in the last couple of weeks. Parra is also struggling against lefties and as noted above Wood completely dominates them. Leave these 2 off of everything.
- I imagine that A.J. Pierzynski will be a popular pick today, but I am not feeling it. Texas has been struggling to score runs and Pierzynski has been struggling to help out. He is only 3 for 15 against Hughes with no extra base hits, and Hughes has very good numbers off the Texas hitters in their careers. This just makes me nervous.