Today's Hitter Breakdown: July 2nd
There are some really crazy weather concerns today, and some games seem to be in real danger of being completed. Make sure you really check the weather before game time as a couple of these plays could be affected. It is another big Tuesday in Daily Fantasy, so these are the hitters who could have monster games to help you get over that GPP hump today.
Park Factors are starting to get back to normal with a bigger sample size, and it will continue to move towards the actual number as we get more games and more data.
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Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Quentin | 0.918 | 0.291 | 0.371 | 1.11 | Lackey – R | 2.99 | 0.288 |
| Austin Jackson | 0.712 | 0.348 | 0.345 | 1.07 | Wang – R | 5.24 | 0.311 |
| Victor Martinez | 0.679 | 0.24 | 0.275 | 1.11 | Wang – R | 5.24 | 0.241 |
| Dustin Pedroia | 1.231 | 0.356 | 0.368 | 1.11 | Erlin – L | 3.6 | 0.345 |
| Starling Marte | 1.36 | 0.357 | 0.351 | 0.92 | Pettibone – R | 4.17 | 0.261 |
| Jason Kipnis | 1.801 | 0.357 | 0.391 | 0.98 | Mendoza – R | 4.16 | 0.286 |
| Wil Myers | 0.787 | 0.368 | 0.345 | 1.09 | Bedard – L | 4.44 | 0.294 |
| Hanley Ramirez | 1.439 | 0.383 | 0.475 | 0.98 | Oswalt – R | 7.36 | 0.44 |
| Nelson Cruz | 0.891 | 0.3 | 0.365 | 1.04 | Saunders – L | 4.98 | 0.243 |
| Adam LaRoche | 0.98 | 0.31 | 0.336 | 0.96 | Peralta – R | 5.58 | 0.274 |
- * Carlos Quentin gets to return to Fenway Park today and gets to face his favorite pitcher, John Lackey. Quentin has been solid in June, posting good numbers as the Padres make a resurgence. Usually I am not a big BVP fan of small sample sizes, but Quentin has one that I just cannot ignore. He is 8 for 13 off Lackey with 4 home runs and 2 other extra base hits, which amounts to a 2.436 OPS and is too much for me to ignore.
- I am high on this Tigers team today as they get to face Chien Ming Wang in the Rogers Centre. Austin Jackson is a guy that some may look over, but I think he makes a really nice GPP play today. He has always hit right handers for better average than lefties, and his career OPS is higher against righties than lefties. Jackson also only steals bases against right handers. He should have plenty of opportunities to get on base and score runs with the likes of Fielder and Cabrera hitting behind him.
- Yes, Fielder and Cabrera make awesome plays today against Wang, but I am featuring the other couple of guys on the Tigers who could be primed for monster games. Victor Martinez has not been the best with the bat lately, but he does bring power without the price. He is really cheap on a lot of sites and will get to hit left handed against Wang who has been owned by left handers in his starts this season. I am looking for the Tigers to put up a bunch of runs as they really need a win and these 2 can do it at a cheaper price than the big boys.
- Dustin Pedroia has been red hot recently and that is always a good time to use him. While he might be really expensive, he faces Erlin who I am not convinced is a consistent good starter. Pedroia has always hit left handers well and should be a great play at 2nd base today.
- Starling Marte is one of the reasons that the Pirates are on this huge win streak. He is a dynamic outfielder with a ton of ways to help out a club. I would much rather have him against a left hander, but at this point I do not think it matters much. He has been crushing lefties and righties alike in the last couple of weeks and now faces Pettibone who is not exactly an ace. Marte has hit very well at PNC as well so I am not worried about the park.
- Jason Kipnis has been unconscious in June, raising his OPS from .750 to .917 which is a huge jump, especially since he had such a large sample size to go with. He has had 1 game without a hit since June 4th, and is driving in runs at a ridiculous rate. He is also scoring runs, walking, and hitting for power. He is probably close to max salary but is completely worth it, especially against right handers and Mendoza who is due to get lit up.
- Wil Myers has not started off the year like Puig, but he still brings the ability to put up monster fantasy scores at a lower price. He has came alive in the last week and a half, and has the chance to really do some damage, especially against Bedard in Minute Maid. Bedard has given up 11 of his 12 homers to right handers, and Myers should have a nice chance at homering tonight for a cheaper price.
- Wait, Roy Oswalt is pitching in Coors tonight? This cannot be good for him. The Dodgers have found a bit of an offense led by Puig and Hanley Ramirez, and I love Hanley at shortstop today. He was 11 for 30 with 3 homers off Oswalt when he was a good pitcher. Now he is terrible, and pitching in Coors field. I expect a lot of Dodgers stacks tonight, and I think it would be wise to at least include a couple.
- Saunders is well known in the fantasy circles of having some crazy home/road splits. With how bad he had been on the road, and entering a hitter’s park at Rangers Stadium makes the Rangers hitters really attractive today. Nelson Cruz has been struggling a bit against lefties recently, but bring in Saunders who has allowed right handers to hit all 13 homers and a .926 OPS against him, and I think we have the potion to cure Cruz’ ailments.
- With Harper’s return, it looks like the Nationals have finally figured out how to score some runs. This bodes well for Adam LaRoche who has actually been hitting well in the past week. LaRoche should get even more opportunites to do good fantasy things with Harper in front of him, and his price should be one of the lower first basemen out there. LaRoche likes right handers better than left and has a nice .835 OPS against them compared to a .642 against righties.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Markakis | 0.517 | 0.293 | 0.321 | 0.92 | Danks – L | 4.68 | 0.259 |
| Albert Pujols | 0.472 | 0.247 | 0.319 | 1.01 | Lynn – R | 3.52 | 0.263 |
| Jean Segura | 0.508 | 0.347 | 0.37 | 0.97 | Strasburg – R | 2.41 | 0.313 |
| Ryan Howard | 0.053 | 0.35 | 0.329 | 0.92 | Cumpton – R | 3.6 | 0.299 |
| Carlos Gonzalez | 0.669 | 0.35 | 0.408 | 1.12 | Kershaw – L | 2.08 | 0.316 |
| Adam Jones | 0.472 | 0.323 | 0.343 | 1.01 | Danks – L | 4.68 | 0.247 |
| Jeff Keppinger | 1.116 | 0.265 | 0.25 | 1.01 | Hammel – R | 5.09 | 0.253 |
| Mitch Moreland | 0.451 | 0.301 | 0.354 | 0.99 | Saunders – L | 4.98 | 0.277 |
| Jhonny Peralta | 0.382 | 0.385 | 0.358 | 1.07 | Wang – R | 5.24 | 0.284 |
| Pablo Sandoval | 0.178 | 0.284 | 0.308 | 0.97 | Bailey – R | 3.88 | 0.256 |
- I would not use Nick Markakis today, even though the Baltimore hitters may look juicy against Danks. Markakis has 0 homers against lefties this year, and has always struggled against them. In Danks’ career he has held Markakis to a .680 OPS over 29 at bats, and Markakis is scuffling a bit right now. There are much better comps than Markakis today.
- Albert Pujols gets to face the Cardinals today, which should be extremely interesting. I say the Cardinals win this matchup, as Pujols has been garbage over the last 7 days. He is slumping a bit and Lynn has held righties to a .541 OPS this season. It will be at Angel Stadium so you won’t have the crowd reaction, but you have to believe the Cardinals will be on their toes for this matchup.
- Jean Segura is cooling off, only posting a .508 OPS in the last 7. He has been struggling, not getting on base and not stealing bases like he was before. Against Strasburg is not the best time to change that around, and with Segura’s high price tag, I think you can find better value at shortstop today.
- With most of the Phillies hitting the ball well, you have Ryan Howard interminged around them who is the rally killer and is ending innings. He has been completely terrible recently, and it does not help him today that he is facing a left hander, and a good one at that. Howard’s trouble hitting lefties is well documented and Locke has been really good all around this year. Even with how cheap Howard is I still do not like him today.
- Am I really recommending avoiding Carlos Gonzalez in Coors today? Yes I am. He struggles when Tulo is out as he does not have that protection in the lineup, and is has shown by his .669 OPS and dropping stats recently. Not only that, but CarGo has to face Kershaw in Coors today who has owned him in the past holding him to 5 hits on 23 at bats with 11 strikeouts. A hitter like this is going to have the chance to go deep always, but for his price, this is way too risky for me today.
- Adam Jones would rather face a right hander than a left hander, and that mantra will ring true today as well. He is a trap play to me as he has consistently had reverse splits throughout his career. US Cellular field has been tough on people this year, and Jones has really struggled against Danks going 1 for 24 with a .122 OPS in their 24 at bats together. This is one of those plays that looks good until you really check out the numbers.
- I read somewhere before the season that Jeff Keppinger was a perfect fit for the White Sox. I do not remember where it was, but I would not say that at all right now. He has been terrible this entire season, and really is not bringing anything to the table for them. He has 7 extra base hits total on the year and has only walked 9 times. Hammel is not that great of a pitcher but he should be able to dominate Keppinger.
- If you are going to stack Rangers, think long and hard about leaving Mitch Moreland off the roster. He only has 1 home run against left handers this year and Saunders has not allowed lefties to hit a single homer this year off of him. Moreland is really struggling and appears to have lost his power stroke, only posting a .451 OPS in the last 7 days. Moreland had a terrible June and appears to be carrying it into July.
- If you are going to stack Tigers, I would think long and hard about sitting Jhonny Peralta. Peralta’s BABIP was way too high earlier in the year, signaling a regression. His numbers this year were way above his career averages, so we all knew that this was coming. He has hit only a .382 OPS in his last 7 and has really not been a part of the Tigers offense in a while. There are a few better shortstop options out there with higher ceilings today.
- I would normally think this as a good spot for Pablo Sandoval, but with the way he is hitting right now, I am fairly wary of using him at all. Bailey is not as good aganist left handers as right handers, but Pablo still only has a .691 OPS hitting from the left side this year. The left side is where he is most dangerous from, but his 1 hit in his last 21 at bats is very concerning to me.