Today's Hitter Breakdown: July 8th
Hopefully everyone had an enlightening and fulfilling holiday weekend and is ready to get back to work. The DFS holiday is coming up soon for the all-star break when the grinders get a few days off to recharge the batteries. I am really hoping the weather in Cleveland holds off because that game is looking in serious danger and I like some matchups in that game.
Park Factors are starting to get back to normal with a bigger sample size, and it will continue to move towards the actual number as we get more games and more data.
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Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Beltre | 1.607 | 0.31 | 0.374 | 1.11 | Feldman – R | 3.43 | 0.305 |
| Victor Martinez | 0.923 | 0.254 | 0.287 | 1.06 | Kazmir – L | 4.86 | 0.2 |
| Jayson Werth | 0.923 | 0.354 | 0.346 | 1.12 | Lannan – L | 5.15 | 0.265 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 0.523 | 0.304 | 0.34 | 1 | Minor – L | 3.15 | 0.243 |
| Brian McCann | 1.48 | 0.315 | 0.396 | 0.91 | Slowey – R | 4.24 | 0.333 |
| Torii Hunter | 1.248 | 0.353 | 0.344 | 1.06 | Kazmir – L | 4.86 | 0.288 |
| Andre Ethier | 0.959 | 0.298 | 0.313 | 0.99 | Delgado – R | 3.67 | 0.279 |
| Carlos Gonzalez | 1.363 | 0.363 | 0.416 | 0.92 | Volquez – R | 5.26 | 0.326 |
| Ian Kinsler | 0.919 | 0.288 | 0.352 | 1.11 | Feldman – R | 3.43 | 0.289 |
| Andrelton Simmons | 1.068 | 0.257 | 0.282 | 1 | Slowey – R | 4.24 | 0.262 |
- Adrian Beltre has been on an absolute tear lately, connecting for 4 homers in his last 3 games. His price had dropped to where he was an extreme bargain, and unless it has risen to the top super quick, I see no reason to stop using him. He has always loved hitting against right handers, and now gets to bat against an old Texas pitcher in a hitters park.
- Victor Martinez makes a great play tonight as I love the Tigers offense against Kazmir. Martinez has a nice hitting streak going and is 8 for 16 off Kazmir in his career with a 1.342 OPS. Martinez does not have the numbers against left handers this year, but over the past 3 previous years he has really crushed them. Kazmir is a below average pitcher and should be victimized by this Tiger’s lineup.
- I still cannot believe how much money the Nationals gave Jayson Werth; I am not an executive though, so what do I know. Anyways, he makes a nice play tonight against Lannan who has been prone to give up a bunch of runs this year. Lannan really struggles with right handers, and although he is decent at keeping the ball in the park, Werth is a guy who can get multiple knocks and drive in a few for this Nats lineup which is heating up.
- I cannot believe how far Giancarlo Stanton salary has dropped on almost all of the sites. The guy is a top tier salary outfielder you can grab at a discount as a filler. Even in a bad offense I believe he will still hit homers and produce until he leaves Miami and immediately becomes a top tier salary guy. I am going to keep picking and choosing my spots to use him, and against the lefty Minor who has kind of struggled a bit lately I think he has a nice chance to homer.
- Brian McCann is probably the top slugging catcher in the game right now outside of Buster Posey. McCann is just on fire and he is slugging along with hitting for average. You never know what you will get out of Slowey who is taking over for the traded Nolasco, and I like McCann’s potential here against a guy like Slowey who can completely blow up.
- Torii Hunter is totally locked in at the plate right now, homering in both of his last 2 games and almost hitting for the cycle. Hunter is really helping this Tigers offense and makes a really solid play as he is one of the cheaper outfield options that is tearing the cover off the ball. I mentioned above about how average Kazmir is and that the Tigers could do some serious damage.
- Are we thinking that Andre Ethier is the one who gets traded with the emergence of Puig and the return of Crawford? It is a definite possibility, and Ethier is finally bringing the stick to the park which is increasing his value, and increasing his daily fantasy value as well. He has been so cheap for a long time it will take a lot to move his salary to the top. He has a nice 6 game hitting streak going with 3 of those being multi hit games and gets to face Delgado in a hitters park. Delgado has not gotten shelled, however he has struggled to keep the ball in the park surrendering 6 homers in 27 innings, so someone for the Dodgers is going yard tonight.
- Carlos Gonzalez was the cheapest he has been in a while last game when he hit his 24th homer of the season. Chances are he is still pretty cheap tonight against Volquez who he has gone 10 for 19 off of in his career and is not very good. The concern here is whether Gonzalez actually plays as he sprained his middle finger last game and is considered day-to-day. Monitor his status, as if he plays I am not too scared about the middle finger issue.
- You can always use Cano or Kipnis at 2nd right now, but if you are looking for a solid other option, grab Ian Kinsler. Finally he is looking like the hitter from last year as he is getting a little hitting streak going. The next thing we need is the power. His salary is really low and he faces the former Ranger in a hitter’s park. Cano’s matchup is solid but if you do not have enough money for him, plug Kinsler in.
- I am really unimpressed with the matchup presented by the shortstop pool tonight so I am going to try to stack up the shortstop on some of my favorite hitting teams. I really like Atlanta to score a few runs, so I will go with Andrelton Simmons who has been hot lately posting a 1.068 OPS in his last 7. He has 4 multi hit games in the last 6 and has been hitting homers lately.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Santana | 0.717 | 0.301 | 0.359 | 1.02 | Scherzer – R | 3.09 | 0.267 |
| Alex Rios | 0.565 | 0.299 | 0.328 | 1.03 | Garza – R | 3.45 | 0.261 |
| Mike Napoli | 0.733 | 0.374 | 0.339 | 0.99 | Hernandez – R | 2.69 | 0.262 |
| Aramis Ramirez | 0.722 | 0.314 | 0.342 | 1.06 | Bailey – R | 3.57 | 0.295 |
| Buster Posey | 0.384 | 0.32 | 0.387 | 0.98 | Harvey – R | 2.27 | 0.293 |
| David Wright | 0.916 | 0.347 | 0.392 | 0.98 | Lincecum – R | 4.66 | 0.304 |
| Asdrubal Cabrera | 0.295 | 0.316 | 0.319 | 1.02 | Scherzer – R | 3.09 | 0.241 |
| Yoenis Cespedes | 0.497 | 0.254 | 0.307 | 0.92 | Locke – L | 2.12 | 0.266 |
| Logan Forsythe | 0.422 | 0.309 | 0.299 | 0.99 | Chatwood – R | 2.75 | 0.25 |
| Brandon Phillips | 0.644 | 0.278 | 0.315 | 1.06 | Lohse – R | 3.43 | 0.257 |
- Carlos Santana hit a homer yesterday, but I think today’s game in Cleveland goes more like the games Friday and Saturday than yesterday. Scherzer knows how to shut down Santana as evidenced by the 3 for 25 mark that Santana has against Max in their careers. Max is a good pitcher, and not many of the Indians have had success against him previously.
- Alex Rios has been pretty much garbage recently, only getting a few singles and really struggling to put the bat on the ball. It does not help that he is in a terrible offense in Chicago who is really struggling to score runs. Combine that with the fact that he is facing Matt Garza tonight who has been just dominant over his last 4 starts and I really do not like any White Sox players tonight.
- Mike Napoli has been a pretty big disappointment for hitting homers for the Red Sox this year, but they haven’t really needed him to be his best to do well. Napoli has also struggled in the last week and has a pretty high BABIP at .374 which is unsustainable, which scares me greatly about his long term prospects if he does not start to homer. Felix Hernandez is never a guy that I want to pick players against, so Napoli will be forgotten today.
- Aramis Ramirez is not a guy I am going to want to take today. He is facing Bailey who just got off throwing a no hitter, and Bailey completely dominates right handers. There is also reports of a knee issue for Ramirez, so that could possibly be why he has been struggling. There is just too much going against him today to make it a good play.
- I have a friendly wager with a buddy that the Giants would not make the playoffs this year, so this recent string of theirs has really been nice to watch for me. Buster Posey has really struggled in the last week, as he has no protection in the lineup, and the whole team just seems to be missing the ball. I do not think it turns around today, because the guy named Matt Harvey is coming to town and pitching in a pitchers park. I could see a monster line coming from Harvey tonight.
- David Wright tends to enjoy hitting against lefties and righties so that usually does not matter, but what matters to me is that Lincecum has had his number in the past. Lincecum has gotten Wright to strike out 12 times in 20 at bats, and even if they were before Lincecum starting sucking, I am still a bit nervous about using Wright today. This game looks like a pitcher’s duel.
- Oh man, it has been pretty brutal for Asdrubal Cabrera in the last week. He was having a great return but has hit a wall and now lacks a hit in the last 14 at bats. Against Scherzer is not where you want to turn things around, so it could be a long night for Asdrubal as he struggles against right handers as well.
- It has been a rough month for Yoenis Cespedes, as he is not producing how Oakland is used to. He has not homered since June 22nd, and the really interesting thing is that in the last 3 games that he has homered, they have all been 2 homer games. Locke is not the guy you want to homer as he has really done a nice job at keeping right handers in the park and limiting them to a .595 OPS.
- What has happened to the Padres? They looked legit when they were winning games and the offense was producing. It seems that they have all gone cold at the same time. Logan Forsythe is really struggling as well, and against Tyler Chatwood who has been solid this year I would not think to use the Padres hitters.
- Is Brandon Phillips 100% healthy? I doubt it as he has not hit up to par recently, or this season. The interesting stat to me is that he has stolen 45 bases in the last 3 years, but only has 1 stolen base up until today so I think there is something going on. He has never had much success against Lohse going 6 for 25 with a .539 OPS, and is struggling against right handers this year.