Today's Hitter Breakdown: June 25th
I apologize for getting this up so late, but better late than never. We have some really hot weather, a lot of wind, and although most of the games have rain concerns, none look to be in imminent danger except for possibly the Mets/White Sox. It’s getting late to qualify for some of the big tournaments out there, so it’s time to put together a smart lineup tonight.
Park Factors are starting to get back to normal with a bigger sample size, and it will continue to move towards the actual number as we get more games and more data.
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Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Longoria | 1.067 | 0.343 | 0.393 | 0.99 | Buehrle – L | 4.6 | 0.354 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.752 | 0.319 | 0.35 | 0.89 | Saunders – L | 4.48 | 0.3 |
| Oswaldo Arcia | 1.107 | 0.34 | 0.357 | 0.99 | Fernandez – R | 3.05 | 0.274 |
| Joe Mauer | 1.226 | 0.399 | 0.395 | 0.99 | Fernandez – R | 3.05 | 0.317 |
| Billy Butler | 0.57 | 0.313 | 0.339 | 0.96 | Medlen – R | 2.96 | 0.281 |
| Chase Utley | 0.385 | 0.275 | 0.338 | 1.03 | Marquis – R | 3.59 | 0.299 |
| Hanley Ramirez | 1.542 | 0.375 | 0.452 | 0.94 | Kickham – L | 15.43 | 0.154 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | 1.326 | 0.337 | 0.406 | 0.92 | Gonzalez – L | 3.34 | 0.282 |
| Jean Segura | 0.983 | 0.353 | 0.385 | 1.06 | Jackson – R | 5.49 | 0.323 |
| BJ Upton | 0.665 | 0.23 | 0.263 | 0.96 | Santana – R | 2.64 | 0.176 |
- Evan Longoria has been one of the best hitters recently, especially the ones manning the hot corner. Today he gets a solid matchup against Mark Buehrle, who has been a bit worse on the road than at the Rogers Centre. Buehrle has been good lately, but I think a regression is coming because he has allowed hits, just not runs. Longoria has been scorching, and is destroying left handed pitching this year.
- There was a point last year when Andrew McCutchen was a plug-n-play option against left handers, even at a high price. He still hits well against them but has not had the at bats to put up solid numbers. He gets a really sweet shot at it today against Saunders, who even though he is solid at home, really struggles against right handed pitching giving up a .872 OPS and all 10 homers against them. You can find McCutchen at a great value tonight.
- One guy you should not discount tonight is Oswaldo Arcia. He is on a heater right now posting a 1.107 OPS in the last 7 days while homering twice. Arcia really brings the bat against right handers, having a .881 OPS on the year, and 5 of his 6 homers are against them. Fernandez is decent, but this Twins lineup is really clicking right now.
- Joe Mauer is another Twin having a really solid last couple of weeks. When he is seeing the ball like he is right now he is almost unstoppable at the plate, even if he doesn’t bring too much power. Jose Fernandez numbers are all really good, especially in Marlins Park, but I like the Twins as sleeper picks tonight.
- One game I am very interested in seeing tonight is the Royals/Braves. Both teams have a few power lefties, and right now it looks like a 20mph wind straight out to left field. If one of the righties, most likely Billy Butler, gets a hold of a decent ball out to the pull field, he could turn a fly ball into a homer. Most of the Royals have been cold, especially Butler, but he has a nice opportunity to homer tonight.
- Chase Utley is back, and even though the numbers do not show it, he did homer last night. He may be getting back into the swing of things and has a really nice history against Marquis. He has 31 at bats with 14 hits, so he obviously sees Marquis’ pitches well. Marquis is having a solid season, but his name never inspires fantasy confidence.
- With all the ado about Puig, Hanley Ramirez return is getting a bit overshadowed. His 1.542 OPS in the last 7 days is very impressive, and the .154 average against left handers is nothing to worry about as it is only 13 at bats. Last year, Hanley was all over left handers crushing them to an .849 OPS. Michael Kickham’s first start did not go very well, and I do not have any confidence that this start will go any better with the lefty killers the Dodgers boast in this lineup.
- Against a left hander, it is always hard to discount Paul Goldschmidt. He makes a solid option tonight as he is red hot and facing Gio Gonzalez who has had his issues against right handers this year. Goldschmidt’s success is mainly due to his improving against righties but he can still rake against lefties.
- Every time you think Jean Segura is going into a slump, he pulls right out of it and continues to keep his average top 5 and one of the stop base stealers in the league. Segura has a ton of ways to make you fantasy points, and stealing multiple bags is one way. Edwin Jackson is one of the easier pitchers to steal on, and he has been pretty pretty terrible this year all the way around.
- BJ Upton makes a really nice play tonight for a really low salary if he plays. He has hit 7 homers this year off right handed pitching, and surprisingly, Ervin Santana struggles this year have come off of right handed pitching as he is giving up over .100 points of OPS more against righties than lefties. Not only are the reverse splits in effect today, but the 20 mph wind will also be blowing out to left at Kauffman so all he needs to do is float one up there.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jhonny Peralta | 0.877 | 0.404 | 0.375 | 1.09 | Wilson – L | 3.61 | 0.406 |
| JP Arencibia | 1.009 | 0.264 | 0.302 | 0.99 | Moore – L | 4.13 | 0.277 |
| Matt Wieters | 0.474 | 0.241 | 0.295 | 1.08 | Masterson – R | 3.48 | 0.217 |
| Kendrys Morales | 0.606 | 0.311 | 0.335 | 0.89 | Locke – L | 2.01 | 0.316 |
| Pedro Alvarez | 1.521 | 0.276 | 0.344 | 0.98 | Saunders – L | 4.48 | 0.179 |
| Carlos Quentin | 1.053 | 0.287 | 0.37 | 0.89 | Kendrick – R | 3.56 | 0.277 |
| Starlin Castro | 0.235 | 0.275 | 0.257 | 1.04 | Lohse – R | 3.68 | 0.25 |
| Elvis Andrus | 0.476 | 0.281 | 0.259 | 0.97 | Kuroda – R | 2.78 | 0.25 |
| Hunter Pence | 0.717 | 0.314 | 0.354 | 0.94 | Fife – R | 3.25 | 0.264 |
| Jimmy Rollins | 0.569 | 0.296 | 0.305 | 1.03 | Marquis – R | 3.59 | 0.265 |
- Jhonny Peralta may look like a really good play tonight but I am going to say fade him. He does have a really solid average against lefties this ear, but in the last 3 years he was pretty bad against them only hitting .232. His .404 BABIP is really concerning me too as it is way too high to be sustainable, meaning his average should fall a bit this year. He also is 1 for 19 in his career against CJ Wilson with 10 strikeouts.
- JP Arencibia is another guy who might be super popular that concerns me. He is a nice homer prone GPP play, but he only has 2 homers against lefties this year and only has 4 away from the Rogers Centre. Matt Moore got the win last time and could possibly be righting the ship. I would say fade JP today.
- Matt Wieters did homer last night, but other than that, his last 7 days have been a mess. He has always been worse hitting from the left side where he will be hitting from tonight, and he faces Masterson who continues to have a solid season. Their history of matchups goes to Masterson as well, with Wieters hitting at a .572 OPS and a .211 batting average in 19 at bats.
- What Locke is doing this year is incredible. He has not allowed a homer against a left handed batter and is basically not allowing any batters to do much of anything. He has started 8 games on the road and not given up a single home run in any of those 8 games. Kendrys Morales is pretty cold right now, and the numbers are way against him today.
- Pedro Alvarez is red hot right now, and could be a popular pick today but I would argue against using him for 3 reasons. First, his salary is most likely raised to the point where he is hardly a bargain at 3rd, 2nd he is facing a left hander who he cannot hit only having a .554 OPS on the year, and is playing at Safeco, where Saunders has been lights out this year.
- When they moved the fences in at Petco, it appears that it has assisted left handers greatly but really did not effect right handers at all. Quentin has always been a bit worse against right handers than left handers, and Kendrick has been good but not great this year. Call it a gut pick but I think that Quentin has a rough one today.
- Starlin Castro has been absolutely awful recently. It just does not appear that he can do anything with the bat, and it does not matter the handedness of the pitcher. Castro has only 5 hits in 20 at bats with no extra base hits against Lohse in their careers, and in the pathetic Cubs lineup his upside is so low.
- I cannot believe that Elvis Andrus price is still just below mid price for shortstops. He is completely awful this year and has a poor matchup against Kuroda. His numbers are horrid and he is not producing in any way fantasy-wise.
- Hunter Pence has been the bright spot in this terrible Giants lineup who are looking for any sort of a spark. He is struggling just a bit with only a .717 OPS in the last 7 days, and the Giants have not scored over 4 runs in any of those games. He faces Fife who has been strangely effective, especially at home in his short amount of starts this year. Today does not look like a Giants breakout.
- I am making the shortstop plays really easy today as a few of the regulars are either garbage or have bad matchups. I am not excited about Jimmy Rollins today as he is really struggling as of late and has to face Jason Marquis who is having his best season in a while. Rollins has a bad big sample BVP against Marquis as well going 7 for 46 with a .438 OPS. Rollins also had most of those at bats when Marquis was bad.