Today's Hitter Breakdown: June 28th
Today has a very interesting dynamic as there are a couple of stud pitchers going but a lot of scrubs. You have the ability to gamble on a bad pitcher and take some great hitters, or do you take the stud pitchers and go for value hitters against bad pitchers? There are also some weather concerns, so monitoring those to the last minute is going to be paramount for the qualifiers.
Park Factors are starting to get back to normal with a bigger sample size, and it will continue to move towards the actual number as we get more games and more data.
Wondering what some of the stats below represent? Check out this popup Batter Breakdown FAQ Page
Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ichiro Suzuki | 0.961 | 0.296 | 0.3 | 1.08 | McFarland – L | 4.14 | 0.353 |
| Colby Rasmus | 0.642 | 0.324 | 0.339 | 1.08 | Webster – R | 11.25 | 0.246 |
| Brandon Phillips | 0.531 | 0.277 | 0.319 | 0.97 | Perez – L | 3.65 | 0.276 |
| Alejandro De Aza | 0.583 | 0.307 | 0.307 | 0.95 | Carrasco – R | 7.78 | 0.237 |
| Pedro Alvarez | 1.705 | 0.29 | 0.346 | 0.9 | Hellweg – R | 0 | 0.278 |
| Jason Heyward | 0.704 | 0.247 | 0.304 | 0.93 | Delgado – R | 4.5 | 0.233 |
| Michael Cuddyer | 1.32 | 0.391 | 0.424 | 1.09 | Zito – L | 4.4 | 0.345 |
| Wilin Rosario | 1.042 | 0.314 | 0.339 | 1.09 | Zito – L | 4.4 | 0.292 |
| Hanley Ramirez | 1.337 | 0.38 | 0.464 | 0.94 | Lannan – L | 5.84 | 0.211 |
| J.B. Shuck | 1.139 | 0.326 | 0.326 | 1.07 | Norris – R | 3.6 | 0.294 |
- Ichiro Suzuki has been really good lately, with a nice 7 game hit streak and even homering twice in his last 3 games. The best part of his game this year is that he has learned to hit lefties really well, and has impressive numbers against them. McFarland is going to get his first major league start, and got roughed up last time in long relief, and has allowed 3 homers against lefties this season.
- I really like Colby Rasmus today, even though he has not been hot in his last few games. Rasmus has the type of power where he can get hot when the situation calls for it, and in Fenway against Webster today it definitely seems like an awesome position as Webster has allowed a 1.637!! OPS in his limited history against lefties this year.
- Brandon Phillips should be back from the paternity list tonight, and gets a solid matchup to boot. It is also Phillips birthday, so throw out the last few days stats because his head has to be back into the right spot. I am not sold on Perez as a starter, and Phillips has always crushed left handers.
- Alejandro De Aza could be a nice GPP play, as I do not believe that many people will use him just because of his lack of success in the immediate past. He has decent home run power, and is facing Carrasco, who is not only completely awful, but is even worse against left handers. I like De Aza’s potential leading off against him.
- Pedro Alvarez is the hottest hitter on the planet right now, and he is not only hitting for power he is hitting for average which tells me he is really locked in. He faces Hellweg, who gets his first major league start. Hellweg is a nice prospect, but Alvarez is crushing right handers and should be able to get the best of the rookie here.
- Jason Heyward is pretty cheap everywhere and always brings home run power to the park. He went through a rough patch but did homer 2 games ago and looks like he may be starting to heat up. I always like to play guys when they start their hot streak, and Delgado is a perfect pitcher for Heyward to continue his surge.
- It is really hard to ignore what Michael Cuddyer is doing right now. He has a monster hit streak going, and in his last 4 games he has multiple hit games. He now gets to play at Coors and against Zito who is absolutely awful on the road. How high is his ceiling? I cannot even guess.
- Wilin Rosario as well has been getting multiple hits in his last 4 games, and gets the same matchup against Zito today. I am still waiting for the power he showed against lefties last year to come out, and this could be the perfect opportunity. On certain sites he will be really expensive along with Cuddyer, but there are a ton of cheap pitchers out there to gamble on to afford these guys.
- Hanley Ramirez got a day off yesterday, and if nothing is wrong with him injury wise, he should be an absolute monster today. He is just crushing the ball since he has been back and gets to face Lannan who he has killed in the past going 10 for 23 with a homer. I do not trust lannan whatsover, and the Dodgers destroy left handers on paper.
- If you are looking for a cheap option which could pay off his salary, J.B. Shuck could be that guy. He does not bring much home run power, but in the last 5 games he has had 4 multiple hit games and 3 multiple run games. It appears that the Angels offense is heating up, and if he is batting at the top he is a nice option.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Napoli | 0.701 | 0.377 | 0.344 | 1.04 | Johnson – R | 4.6 | 0.267 |
| Lorenzo Cain | 0.25 | 0.324 | 0.309 | 1.02 | Walters – R | 4.88 | 0.277 |
| Michael Bourn | 0.717 | 0.395 | 0.322 | 0.95 | Quintana – L | 3.83 | 0.288 |
| Starlin Castro | 0.64 | 0.281 | 0.261 | 0.89 | Iwakuma – R | 2.26 | 0.258 |
| Raul Ibanez | 1.293 | 0.245 | 0.35 | 1.03 | Wood – L | 2.85 | 0.214 |
| Ryan Zimmerman | 1.067 | 0.329 | 0.354 | 0.93 | Harvey – R | 2.05 | 0.262 |
| Ryan Howard | 0.824 | 0.352 | 0.333 | 0.99 | Capuano – L | 4.09 | 0.173 |
| Yoenis Cespedes | 0.703 | 0.244 | 0.314 | 0.97 | Miller – R | 2.35 | 0.203 |
| Evan Longoria | 0.789 | 0.34 | 0.389 | 0.99 | Scherzer – R | 3.05 | 0.277 |
| Carlos Santana | 0.478 | 0.318 | 0.354 | 0.87 | Quintana – L | 3.83 | 0.281 |
- Mike Napoli OPS has dropped every single month, and now has a terrible OPS in June, and is getting replaced in lineups by Mike Carp. He has 1 extra base hit in June, and is not really playing very well. He faces Josh Johnson who looks like he has just regained his previous form. I am not a big fan of Napoli today and I think his upside is a bit limited.
- Lorenzo Cain has been terrible recently to say the least. With his double pinch hitting yesterday, he broke a string of 8 games with 2 hits and 0 extra base hits. Cain faces PJ Walters today who is not that great, but I still do not like his potential here.
- Michael Bourn has been completely average in his past few games, and now he has to face 2 lefties in the same day. His career stats are a bit worse against lefties than righties, and in the late game, Quintana usually holds the other team to 2-4 runs. At 8.5 this game is one of the lower over under games of the night as well.
- Starlin Castro has had 2 multi hit games in his last 2, but with the way he has struggled this year, I still do not trust him. The Cubs have been getting good hitting from their left handers recently powering them to a triad of wins. I think that ends here as Iwakuma should be able to shut them down.
- Even though Raul Ibanez has been crushing the ball recently, I am concerned with him facing off against Travis Wood. Wood has been very good this year and has been a rock in the Cubs rotation. He has only given up 3 extra base hits in 77 at bats against left handed batting and owns a .449 OPS against them with only 1 home run. I think Wood can keep Ibanez in the park tonight.
- Throw out how good Ryan Zimmerman has been recently, because it does not really matter right now. He faces off against Harvey today so the best chance he has at doing something special would be against the Mets bullpen. Harvey is back just dominating teams and not allowing runs, and as the Nationals seem to struggle to score runs for some reason, I really do not want to use Zimmerman today.
- Ryan Howard does not have a hit in his last 3 games, and managed to go 0 for 6 with 3 strikeouts two days ago. I can never justify using him against a left hander, especially in Dodger Stadium. Even though he is cheap and has home run power, I really think he struggles greatly tonight.
- Yoenis Cespedes has had 1 big game with 2 home runs in the last couple of week, which has boosted his numbers. Other than that he has been really below average, especially against righties. Unfortunately for him, he has to face one of the best up and comers who is having a great season in Shelby Miller. While Miller has been vulnerable in 2 of the last 3 starts, he still owns a nice .178 avg and .553 OPS against righties making this a tough one for Cespedes.
- Evan Longoria is having a nice season, and has made my favorite plays multiple times this year. Longo has to face Scherzer, however who is trying to get the Tigers pitching back on track after that embarrassing show against the Angels. Scherzer has been very solid and has a great chance at shutting the Rays down today, and Longoria has never really had success against him either.
- Carlos Santana has really been struggling lately with a .478 OPS in his last 7. Santana does hit better against lefties usually, but I am not a big fan of his tonight as Quintana hardly allows the other team to go nuts. Santana may be a popular pick but I am going to fade him as he has not really been good since his incredible April.