Today's Hitter Breakdown: May 15th
A nice split day so everyone who works during the day can have some games to sweat and something to distract them from their work today. There is some rain projected, however at this time it is not bad enough to look like it will postpone some games. Make sure you check weather and lineups before making your teams.
As I mentioned before, Park Factors are now used from this season’s data as the fences were moved in at Safeco and Petco. They will be a bit fluid until we get a decent sample, so if the park factors seem a bit off, this is why.
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Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Jaso | 0.577 | 0.329 | 0.303 | 0.94 | Ogando – R | 3.09 | 0.263 |
| Mitch Moreland | 1.397 | 0.316 | 0.377 | 0.94 | Straily – R | 7.06 | 0.293 |
| Michael Saunders | 0.723 | 0.314 | 0.375 | 1.05 | Hughes – R | 4.43 | 0.256 |
| Buster Posey | 1.035 | 0.306 | 0.389 | 1.05 | Ortiz – R | 3.24 | 0.271 |
| Pablo Sandoval | 0.95 | 0.323 | 0.364 | 1.02 | Ortiz – R | 3.24 | 0.327 |
| Josh Hamilton | 0.863 | 0.264 | 0.265 | 0.96 | Davis – R | 5.86 | 0.227 |
| Alex Gordon | 1.165 | 0.381 | 0.369 | 0.96 | Enright – R | 11.37 | 0.268 |
| Freddie Freeman | 0.54 | 0.342 | 0.336 | 1.05 | Kennedy – R | 4.83 | 0.265 |
| Jean Segura | 1.436 | 0.393 | 0.426 | 0.94 | Rodriguez – L | 3.62 | 0.4 |
| Matt Kemp | 0.735 | 0.362 | 0.291 | 0.91 | Detwiler – L | 2.53 | 0.333 |
- John Jaso could make for a sneaky catcher play today. He hasn’t been good so far this year, however, has servicable power and has rocked Ogando before going 4 for 5 with a triple. He isn’t very expensive and could open the door for some better options.
- Mitch Moreland has the numbers this season of a top-tier player at a lower tier price. His home run totals are really nice and homers against right handers at a nice rate. Dan Straily has not been very effective so far and is extremely hittable right now.
- Michael Saunders is a gut pick today, as I think he has the ability to abuse the short porch in left in Yankee Stadium. He hasn’t been good in the last couple of days, however, his BABIP and wOBA are similar to those with big power. He is pretty cheap and has upside against Hughes.
- One thing that Buster Posey does well is homer against bad pitching, and Ramon Ortiz could serve up a couple for Buster. Ramon was better than I predicted last time out, but how often can this last for a guy who has never been that great?
- Pablo Sandoval homered last night and should be in for another one tonight against Ortiz. Like I noted above, Ortiz is just due for an implosion and the middle of the Giants lineup seems primed to help out.
- I am a bit concerned about this “illness” that has been plaguing Josh Hamilton, but I may find that his matchup will be too hard to pass up today. Wade Davis has gotten rocked a couple of times and Hamilton is 4 for 4 off of him with a home run. His price is so low that it is hard for me to say no to his 2 HR potential.
- Alex Gordon, Mr Doubles, is on a tear again this year and is now batting 3rd in the Royals order which should help him get some more RBIs. He is facing Barry Enright who has been terrible in his appearances this year and Alex Gordon should be all over him in this game.
- Freddie Freeman has been struggling, but gets a nice chance to change that at Chase Field against Kennedy. Freeman’s salary should be in the dumpster and Chase Field is one of the nicest parks to hit in and Kennedy has given up some homers this year.
- Jean Segura is trying to prove that his hot April is not a fluke. Segura is producing just as much as Carlos Gomez at this point and is not the top priced shortstop, however he is the shortstop who is producing the most. He has many ways of helping your fantasy team including stealing multiple bases.
- I am trying to find reason to use guys like Matt Kemp and Hamilton who are struggling but are in positions where they could have a monster game. It seems really hard for me to pass these opportunities up due to their discounted salary and the pure upside they have proven over the course of their career. This is a spot for Kemp against a left hander that could be just that.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Ross | 0.932 | 0.321 | 0.322 | 0.92 | Hudson – R | 4.7 | 0.233 |
| B.J. Upton | 0.515 | 0.208 | 0.23 | 0.92 | Kennedy – R | 4.83 | 0.134 |
| Miguel Cabrera | 0.765 | 0.393 | 0.437 | 1.13 | Keuchel – L | 4.43 | 0.37 |
| Luke Scott | 0.443 | 0.273 | 0.386 | 1.03 | Lester – L | 2.73 | 0.462 |
| David Ortiz | 0.231 | 0.35 | 0.409 | 1.03 | Price – L | 4.78 | 0.226 |
| Michael Bourn | 0.467 | 0.366 | 0.372 | 1.08 | Hamels – L | 4.18 | 0.333 |
| Pedro Alvarez | 0.786 | 0.24 | 0.255 | 0.86 | Gallardo – R | 4.7 | 0.189 |
| Carlos Gomez | 0.955 | 0.432 | 0.444 | 0.94 | Rodriguez – L | 3.62 | 0.4 |
| Troy Tulowitzki | 0.505 | 0.309 | 0.421 | 0.99 | Samardzija – R | 3.7 | 0.333 |
| David Wright | 0.618 | 0.326 | 0.401 | 0.84 | Miller – R | 1.58 | 0.329 |
- Not only does Cody Ross struggle against right handers, he seems to have joined the struggle party against Tim Hudson as well going 4 for 23 with only singles and a .348 OPS in his appearances. I highly doubt he homers tonight as all the signs are pointing against it.
- B.J. Upton is doing nothing this year, just plain nothing. With his brother doing so well, it is almost like Atlanta is obligated to play him. Kennedy has been ok this year, but BJ is hitting a meager .134 against right handers this year, so I do not have any hopes for him.
- It is hard to justify using Miguel Cabrera today as he is basically the most expensive hitter on every site at this point, and you really need him to homer to make his value. He probably will not homer tonight, even in Comerica as he is facing a left hander who he just doesn’t homer off of. All 8 of his home runs this year are off right handers and 40 of his 44 last year were off right handers.
- Luke Scott has been playing a bit more recently for the Rays, but what I do not like to see is his 0-11 mark against Lester. Scott hasn’t been that great either when he has played this year going for a .443 OPS in his last 7 games.
- David Ortiz has really cooled after his monster start to the season even with last night’s homer. Ortiz is looking at David Price today who may have figured out what he has been doing wrong to start the season. Ortiz has a pretty poor history against Price with a .200 BA and a .613 OPS in 30 plate appearances so there are better options for your money out there.
- Michael Bourn is another guy with poor splits against the pitcher they are playing. Bourn does have a .296 average against Hamels, however he has no power off of him in their 29 meetings, and Hamels is a lefty so when he gets on stealing bags may be a bit more difficult.
- Pedro Alvarez does hit right handers at a much better rate than lefties, but hitting against Gallardo isn’t something that he likes to do. Alvarez is 0 for 15 against Gallardo in his career and most of the Pirates also have a pretty poor history against him.
- I am going to recommend not using Carlos Gomez today only for BVP reasons as everything else says use him, but it appears that Wandy Rodriguez has his number. Gomez is 4 for 29 with no power and 1 walk and 14 strikeouts, so what that tells me is that Gomez really has a hard time seeing the ball out of Rodriguez’s hand.
- As of the time this was written, the wind was projected to blow in at Wrigley for the game, so this will decrease the scoring in that game. Troy Tulowitzki has been really cold lately posting a .505 OPS in the last 7. Samardzija has also been solid this year and for the price today I would rather use Segura.
- David Wright has a bunch of things going against him today, the first of which is Busch stadium which has been murder to right handers this season. Second, he is facing Shelby Miller who as everyone knows is lights out, and his last 7 days have not been great. Leave him off your teams today.