Today's Hitter Breakdown: May 8th
I think that MLB is hoping that summer comes quickly because these weather issues are really putting a burden on the games and causing a ton of postponements. There are a lot of weather issues tonight so hopefully the games that get postponed get postponed early. Also, not to be forgotten, congrats to Cal for winning his DFBC seat last night!
As I mentioned before, Park Factors are now used from this season’s data as the fences were moved in at Safeco and Petco. They will be a bit fluid until we get a decent sample, so if the park factors seem a bit off, this is why.
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Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Jaso | 0.871 | 0.333 | 0.327 | 1.11 | Masterson – R | 3.64 | 0.263 |
| Robinson Cano | 0.786 | 0.314 | 0.399 | 1 | Nicasio – R | 4.91 | 0.384 |
| Dexter Fowler | 0.467 | 0.324 | 0.414 | 1 | Phelps – R | 5.56 | 0.276 |
| Lance Berkman | 0.669 | 0.352 | 0.385 | 1.09 | Lohse – R | 3.16 | 0.306 |
| Carlos Gomez | 1.108 | 0.42 | 0.447 | 1.12 | Holland – L | 2.74 | 0.378 |
| Carlos Pena | 0.9 | 0.329 | 0.318 | 1.04 | Blanton – R | 5.97 | 0.231 |
| Carlos Gonzalez | 1.278 | 0.369 | 0.423 | 1 | Phelps – R | 5.56 | 0.276 |
| Manny Machado | 1.167 | 0.351 | 0.378 | 1 | Mendoza – R | 7 | 0.347 |
| Brandon Moss | 0.594 | 0.403 | 0.37 | 1.11 | Masterson – R | 3.64 | 0.295 |
| Ryan Roberts | 0.824 | 0.3 | 0.299 | 0.95 | Romero – L | 3.6 | 0.382 |
- John Jaso could be a nice catcher sleeper tonight. He only plays against right handers, and Oakland has a chance to put up some runs even though they have been in a slump. Masterson struggles against lefties and Oakland has a few that they will trot out there. It doesn’t hurt that of Jaso’s 9 at bats career against Masterson, 2 have gone deep.
- Robinson Cano is the top option at 2nd base today. He is in Coors against the right handed Nicasio who hasn’t been that great this year. The Yankees have a ton of left handed bats who match up well with Nicasio so there will be plenty of chances for Cano to score.
- Dexter Fowler has returned to the lineup and now he gets Phelps in Coors. Phelps started out nice in his last start but imploded, and could do the same here. Fowler brings tons of power to the table and has hit most of his home runs against right handers this year.
- Make sure that you check and see if Lance Berkman is in the lineup today, as he may be a pinch hitter due to having nowhere to play in the field. Berkman has nice splits against Lohse going 9 for 31 with 4 homers, and is one of the only left handers in the Texas lineup so Washington will be tempted to play him.
- Carlos Gomez is one of the best hitters in the majors right now, and I’m going to keep playing him until his salary is up there with the others. The thing that concerns me is that Holland has been very good so far, but the Milwaukee lineup is full of righties and Holland had an issue with giving up homers to right handers last year.
- Yes, I do think it is good to use some Houston players today. They have their over/under set at 4, and are not even too big of dogs today even against the Angels. That tells me that Vegas hates Blanton as much as I do, and I may take a flier on Carlos Pena today. Pena has a nice history against Blanton going 5 for 10 and should be pretty cheap everywhere.
- If you are going to play Dexter Fowler, you might as well stack him up with Carlos Gonzalez as he is on fire right now and is a must play on Colorado’s lineup. Cargo is going to be expensive, but he is feasting on average pitching, and Phelps should be very scared, especially in Coors.
- Manny Machado has some interesting reverse splits this year where all of his power is coming off of right handers, and he is hitting them better. He should have a really nice game and a chance for some RBIs against Mendoza, who is pretty terrible and a nice pitcher to mini-stack against.
- This is a perfect spot for Brandon Moss to break out of his slump. He gets to face Masterson in Progressive field which isn’t a good thing for Masterson. Moss’ power comes solely against right handers, and he has homered once in 5 at bats against Masterson, so I expect him to go deep today.
- Ryan Roberts has feasted this season on left handed pitching, so it is lucky that Romero is on the hill today. Romero pitched better than I thought he would last game, but in my opinion he is still prime to get lit up. Ryan Roberts is a nice cheap option if you can find him at 2nd or 3rd tonight.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerardo Parra | 0.819 | 0.349 | 0.357 | 0.99 | Kershaw – L | 1.66 | 0.194 |
| Miguel Montero | 0.686 | 0.23 | 0.254 | 0.99 | Kershaw – L | 1.66 | 0.25 |
| David Wright | 1.444 | 0.329 | 0.418 | 0.96 | Peavy – R | 3.38 | 0.358 |
| Jayson Werth | 0 | 0.293 | 0.312 | 0.91 | Sanchez – R | 1.82 | 0.282 |
| Adam LaRoche | 1.024 | 0.213 | 0.255 | 0.89 | Sanchez – R | 1.82 | 0.164 |
| Andre Ethier | 0.623 | 0.286 | 0.309 | 0.99 | Miley – L | 3.06 | 0.25 |
| Michael Young | 0.804 | 0.394 | 0.36 | 0.96 | Zito – L | 3.06 | 0.337 |
| Jeff Keppinger | 0.308 | 0.21 | 0.209 | 0.96 | Hefner – R | 4.34 | 0.186 |
| Sean Rodriguez | 0.481 | 0.314 | 0.329 | 0.95 | Romero – L | 3.6 | 0.3 |
| Matt Wieters | 0.721 | 0.259 | 0.299 | 1 | Mendoza – R | 7 | 0.213 |
- Gerardo Parra has been garbage against left handers this season, so I am not sure if he is even going to be starting, but don’t even think about playing him. Kershaw is pitching for the Dodgers and Arizona will be lucky to surpass 3 runs today.
- Not only does Miguel Montero have a terrible matchup against Clayton Kershaw, but he has been awful so far this season. A bad matchup and a cold player doesn’t usually equal anything close to success.
- This pick is a bit risky, but I think that Wright’s salary is too much to take tonight with Peavy on the mound. Wright has been scorching, but does own a 2 for 14 career mark against Peavy with no homers. I am going to fade him today and let Peavy go to work.
- The rainout last night just gave me another chance to echo Jayson Werth terrible BVP splits against Sanchez. If you didn’t see, he is 5 for 30 with 19 strikeouts. The Nationals are striking out a ton, and it looks like Werth may lead the charge tonight.
- If Werth is leading the charge, Adam LaRoche won’t be too far behind. For his Career, LaRoche is 6 for 30 with 9 strikeouts which isn’t as bad as Werth, but LaRoche has just been totally inept this year, and this doesn’t look like a spot where he will change that.
- The Dodgers/Diamondbacks game has the look of a pitcher’s duel so I do not want to take any hitters from this game, especially not Andre Ethier. He may be cheap, but he just isn’t producing right now, and he struggles against left handers. Leave him at home one this one.
- Michael Young is in the battle of the olds today. He faces Barry Zito who he has appeared against 91 times in his career. While Young is cheap and has been playing well, in his 91 plate appearances, he only has 1 home run and 6 walks, and most of his hits are singles. This year, he seems to have lost his home run stroke as well, so if you are looking for someone to homer, I would look elsewhere.
- Jeff Keppinger has been embarrassing this year for the White Sox. He isn’t hitting at all and in many games he has been occupying the 2 hole in the lineup. He’s really been terrible against right handers, and Hefner should be brimming with confidence after his last outing. I just don’t see any reason to try Keppinger here.
- Sean Rodriguez will most likely play tonight as Romero is left handed, but he has 16 at bats against Ricky with only 1 hit. Rodriguez hasn’t been good lately, so I won’t be falling into that trap tonight.
- Either something needs to be done about Matt Wieters left handed swing, or he needs to just stop being a switch hitter. He just isn’t as good from the left side as he is from the right, and with his recent struggles overall, I am going to pass on taking him here even against Mendoza. He only has a .621 OPS batting from the left side in 75 at bats this year, and .715 last year through the whole year.