Today's Hitter Breakdown: September 10th
Congrats to all of the grinders who had amazing showings this first weekend of football, and I am sad to miss the NFL kickoff party, as it sounded like an amazing time. I really enjoy having more than 1 sport going as switching gears keeps things fresh and interesting. There are still some huge baseball tournaments going on, and Tuesday is one of the biggest days for that.
With only a month left in the season, this year’s Park Factors should be very representative of how the parks this year have played. There are still some irregularities, however they should work themselves out in time.
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Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Wieters | 0.692 | 0.24 | 0.304 | 1.09 | Nova – R | 3.02 | 0.212 |
| Jason Kipnis | 0.707 | 0.338 | 0.359 | 1 | Guthrie – R | 4.19 | 0.274 |
| Will Venable | 0.762 | 0.314 | 0.351 | 1.04 | Cloyd – R | 3.57 | 0.272 |
| Brett Lawrie | 0.773 | 0.28 | 0.32 | 1.08 | Williams – R | 4.6 | 0.27 |
| Mark Trumbo | 0.724 | 0.276 | 0.322 | 1.08 | Buehrle – L | 3.88 | 0.259 |
| Joey Votto | 0.847 | 0.361 | 0.399 | 1.03 | Jackson – R | 4.91 | 0.328 |
| Gordon Beckham | 0.583 | 0.306 | 0.31 | 0.92 | Porcello – R | 4.76 | 0.3 |
| Austin Jackson | 0.81 | 0.338 | 0.339 | 0.92 | Johnson – R | 4.5 | 0.304 |
| Brandon Barnes | 0.825 | 0.324 | 0.287 | 0.95 | Saunders – L | 4.95 | 0.308 |
| Coco Crisp | 0.863 | 0.258 | 0.333 | 1.02 | Hendriks – R | 5.28 | 0.288 |
- Ivan Nova comes to Camden to take on the Orioles today and even thought he has been solid since returning to the rotation, he could have some trouble tonight. The Orioles destroy right handed pitching, and Nova was shaky last time out only pitching 4 innings. Nova’s strikeouts are down and even though Wieters has been somewhat garbage lately he makes a nice value catcher with upside with his 11 for 26 mark with 4 homers off of Nova.
- Jason Kipnis has not been producing recently like his monster June, but still makes a solid play against Guthrie. The Indians are hitting the ball well and Kipnis will have some solid protection tonight. Guthrie gives up hit after hit and treads on dangerous waters with his 1.4 WHIP and his .905 OPS allowed to lefties along with 17 homers. Kipnis himself is 5 for 8 off Guthrie so he sees him well also.
- I am not a believer in Tyler Cloyd yet, and his 1.5 WHIP indicates that when he is bad, he is really bad. I like Venable tonight as an against the grain option who may not be used very much. Venable steals, and hits for power, and tonight will be hitting in Citizens Bank which is much nicer for lefties than Petco is. As long as he is not too expensive I think he is a great GPP play.
- The Blue Jays are dangerous at home against right handers, as their entire team hits right handers well. Brett Lawrie is one of those guys, and he is actually better against righties than lefties. Williams does not go deep into games and usually gives up a few runs in the process. He may not last long tonight in one of the highest over/under games of the night. All of the Blue Jays are good plays but I like Lawrie for his low own % probability.
- Mark Trumbo smashes home runs and strikes out a lot, so what does that mean? It means he is a solid GPP play, and I like him tonight against Buehrle. Buehrle has been better at home, but he has still given up homers in the Rogers Centre and given up most of his homers to right handers. The Angels have been a real disappointment but you really do not need an offense when you use a cheap upside filler like Trumbo.
- I really like how Joey Votto has hit in the last couple of days, rebounding after receiving criticism on how he was performing. When Votto goes nuts you want him on your team because he will have that 5-5 3 RBI 3 run game that posts a ton of points. Votto’s price is still a little bargain right now and he faces a right hander in Jackson who is terrible away from Wrigley and has the potential to really implode.
- I really hope Porcello pitches well tonight, but I cannot like the prospects of that after his 8 ER game last time out where the Red Sox scored 20. Gordon Beckham is my favorite 2b play tonight as he will be cheap, he has a 10 for 23 history with a homer against Porcello and Beckham can only hit right handers well.
- Austin Jackson gets relief from Sale as he gets to face a guy named Erik Johnson tonight. To be honest I do not know much about him, but I do know that Vegas hates him as the Tigers are projected to score 5 runs away from home. Last time out he allowed 5 runs along with only one strikeout, so Tigers bats are in play today. Jackson’s splits are similar to Beckham’s as well as Jackson loves hitting against right handers.
- If you want to stack Astros, you get your chance tonight. Guys like Barnes, Carter, and Dominguez all have a solid matchup against Saunders. I will go with Barnes tonight as he has had a decent last week along with crushing left handers (crushing for an Astro) with a .308 average and a .838 OPS. Someone on Houston is going to homer against Saunders as he has allowed 20 to righties this season, it is just picking who.
- Liam Hendriks is back pitching for the Twins and pitching poorly. He has allowed 4 homers to lefties and given them a .870 OPS. Coco Crisp is really doing some good work with the bat and doing work against righties this year with a .852 OPS and 13 of his 18 homers. Crisp is a solid outfield play on a team who could score a lot against a bad pitcher.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billy Butler | 0.825 | 0.327 | 0.35 | 0.98 | McAllister – R | 3.97 | 0.275 |
| Desmond Jennings | 0.708 | 0.289 | 0.321 | 0.95 | Buchholz – R | 1.71 | 0.219 |
| Ben Zobrist | 0.899 | 0.308 | 0.342 | 0.95 | Buchholz – R | 1.71 | 0.297 |
| Daniel Nava | 0.861 | 0.343 | 0.366 | 0.95 | Price – L | 3.51 | 0.245 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 0.518 | 0.252 | 0.326 | 1.03 | Cingrani – L | 2.8 | 0.185 |
| Andrew Brown | 0.487 | 0.289 | 0.318 | 0.96 | Zimmermann – R | 3.3 | 0.254 |
| Ryan Zimmerman | 1.141 | 0.319 | 0.354 | 0.96 | Gee – R | 3.53 | 0.277 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 1.071 | 0.305 | 0.366 | 0.91 | Teheran – R | 3.01 | 0.243 |
| Andre Ethier | 0.606 | 0.314 | 0.341 | 0.96 | Cahill – R | 4.35 | 0.295 |
| Angel Pagan | 0.875 | 0.299 | 0.312 | 0.94 | De La Rosa – L | 3.31 | 0.276 |
- Billy Butler has lost his power stroke as he hasn’t had an extra-base hit since August 27th. Tonight he faces a guy in McAllister who has held right handers to a .696 OPS and in his previous meetings against the Royals, really dominated them. This matchup should be more comfortable for McAllister than his last 2, and I am expecting a good game from him.
- Desmond Jennings has been pretty bad in the last week, and bad against right handers this whole season. He faces Buchholz today who may not go very long, however Buchholz has pitched really well before going on the DL and if he is pulled early, the Red Sox can match up Jennings with a right handed reliever making his job even tougher to overcome his .657 OPS against righties.
- Ben Zobrist does not have some of the challenges that Jennings will face tonight, however I still do not like him against Buchholz. This game is a stay away from both parties for me until we know more about Buchholz and his return. I do not like Zobrist’s history against Buchholz either as he has only 4 hits on 34 at bats and a .397 OPS.
- I do not like the other side either, as the Red Sox are somewhat challenged at hitting left handers, and Price is a really good one. Daniel Nava should probably only hit left handed as he cannot hit lefties anyways. Nava’s 1 for 18 with 8 strikeouts BVP against Price is also not making anything better.
- Anthony Rizzo has been pretty bad lately amassing a pathetic .190 average and .667 OPS in August. His 6 homers were his saving grace, so when you look at his 0 homers in September you shouldn’t be surprised to see a .589 OPS. He has just been bad and has less success against left handers, one who he will face today in Cingrani. Its a huge risk to take anyone from the Cubs, so avoid Rizzo like the plague.
- Andrew Brown has hit a couple of homers for the Mets but the reality is he has not done much with the bat to warrant fantasy consideration. He faces Zimmermann in a low scoring game which could turn out to be a pitcher’s duel in a bad offense. If you want to look for a cheap guy with power upside, there are other better options out there.
- I feel like Ryan Zimmerman has these random huge games to get on everyone’s radar and then is unsatisfying for a while after that. I think he will be very unsatisfying to fantasy owners today against Gee who has been really good lately and has held him to 6 for 26 in their history. Gee has really dominated the Nationals and I think this game is very low scoring.
- I am not sure if Giancarlo Stanton is going to play tonight because of his foot, but if he does, do not use him. Miami is projected as one of the lowest scoring teams today, and Stanton has no one around him to give him any protection, so Teheran will refuse to give him anything to hit, as shown by his 0 for 7 history with 3 walks against Julio.
- It may be tempting to use Andre Ethier tonight against the right handed Cahill, but I am avoiding him. Ethier has been pretty bad recently, only being saved by last night’s homer. Ethier has had no success against Cahill either going 3 for 18 with a .422 OPS. He will most likely be batting in a nice spot in the order and be tempting, however I am just not seeing enough to make me believe right now.
- Angel Pagan helped the Giants greatly last night but the real story is the Giants offense is pathetic. They have not scored over 4 runs in any game this month that Pagan has played and are facing a guy in De La Rosa who is pretty consistent with going 6 innings and only allowing 2 runs. Pagan is 3 for 20 agaist De La Rosa with no homers and a .477 OPS so I would look elsewhere.