Today's Hitter Breakdown: September 13th
Here comes a huge Friday in fantasy baseball, with FanDuel’s King of the Diamond headlining the tournaments tonight. Someone is going to have a lot of money in their account by the end of the night so lets look at the guys who have sweet matchups that will get you there.
With only a month left in the season, this year’s Park Factors should be very representative of how the parks this year have played. There are still some irregularities, however they should work themselves out in time.
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Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.453 | 0.307 | 0.38 | 0.96 | Kendrick – R | 4.51 | 0.306 |
| Chris Davis | 0.957 | 0.345 | 0.43 | 1.06 | Redmond – R | 4.4 | 0.331 |
| Adam Lind | 0.64 | 0.314 | 0.355 | 1.06 | Hammel – R | 5.11 | 0.293 |
| Nick Castellanos | 0.666 | 0.3 | 0.242 | 1.07 | Duffy – L | 1.85 | 0.333 |
| David Ortiz | 0.721 | 0.318 | 0.397 | 1.05 | Kuroda – R | 2.99 | 0.341 |
| AJ Pierzynski | 1.048 | 0.295 | 0.327 | 1.02 | Straily – R | 4.1 | 0.277 |
| Kelly Johnson | 0.2 | 0.284 | 0.324 | 1.02 | Correia – R | 4.3 | 0.222 |
| Matt Dominguez | 0.863 | 0.255 | 0.299 | 1.03 | Vargas – L | 3.76 | 0.243 |
| Carlos Gomez | 0.438 | 0.342 | 0.353 | 1.04 | Latos – R | 3.02 | 0.268 |
| Matt Carpenter | 1.007 | 0.356 | 0.377 | 1.02 | Iwakuma – R | 2.97 | 0.33 |
- Bryce Harper is back in the lineup and ready to hit. His last 7 OPS is based on the last 2 games where he was 1 for 4 in both. He faces Kendrick tonight who he has owned to a 8 for 20 mark and a 1.278 OPS in 20 at bats. Harper crushes right handed pitching and is always in play against a suspect righty like Kendrick.
- I am really loving Chris Davis’ matchup tonight. He faces a right hander in Redmond who has allowed a bunch of homers in his major league stint, and destroys said right handers. Davis is looking for 50 homers in a season and he should be able to deliver tonight in a hitter’s park like the Rogers Centre.
- I love Adam Lind tonight against Hammel. Lind loves destroying right handers and Hammel loves being destroyed by lefties allowing 13 homers and an .872 OPS against them. Hammel has not been good anywhere and Lind had destroyed right handers to a .878 OPS this year. Use frequently.
- We will see if Leyland really wants to use Nick Castellanos as the Tigers square off against Danny Duffy the lefty. Castellanos is still min price on a couple of sites, and if not min price, very cheap. He has a lot of talent and will be a regular major league contributor soon enough. I still like him today because I do not believe in Danny Duffy current start to the season as he has a 1.36 WHIP along with he only lasted 4 innings against the Tigers last time out.
- If you can afford David Ortiz tonight against Kuroda than go for it. Kuroda has not been pitching as well as previously and has allowed teams to knock him around recently. Ortiz is pummeling right handers this year to a 1.107 OPS, not to mention his 9 for 15 mark with a homer off of Kuroda equaling a 1.611 OPS. The Red Sox destroy right handers and Kuroda could be in for a rough one.
- A huge series is going down this weekend in Texas. The Rangers and the Athletics are going to be facing off for division supremacy, and this game is very important. I like AJ Pierzynski as your catcher option tonight against the righty Straily. Pierzynski has hit righties much better than lefties in his career even though his stats this season are a bit off. Straily is giving up lots of fly balls and is homer prone, so going to Texas is not going to be good for him at all, especially against a guy who has homered off him before.
- Here is a real BVP battle. Kelly Johnson has been struggling lately and not getting a lot of playing time. I think Maddon will look at his BVP against Correia and get him in. He is 9 for 25 with 5 homers off of Correia and a 1.429 OPS. He is going to be cheap, and if he is in, he makes a good punt play with solid homer potential even though he has been cold.
- Wait, the Astros are a decent offense? Yes, right now they are actually hitting it well scoring at least 6 runs in each game at Safeco. It does not get any harder tonight as they come home to a more hitter friendly park and get to hit against Vargas who they have knocked around this year. I like Matt Dominguez for his power potential but I could also see using LJ Hoes or Brandon Barnes as well.
- I can see a ton of people using Mat Latos tonight against the Brewers. It will not be a bad play but I would just consider maybe a fade play tonight as the Brewers do have Carlos Gomez in one of the most hitter friendly parks this year. Gomez loves hitting at Miller and hitting against Latos where he is 6 for 12 with a homer. The Brewers knocked around Kelly last night and I think they might be able to do it to Latos as well.
- Matt Carpenter has become one of the best hitting 2nd baseman in the league this year. All he does is get out there and get on base with a little power. Carpenter hits righties at a .900 OPS and hits at home a 1.001 OPS and .373 average. He is a great, high floor, double up option tonight against Iwakuma who has lost the luster of his early year success.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Seager | 0.25 | 0.301 | 0.35 | 0.91 | Wainwright – R | 3.03 | 0.289 |
| Alex Gordon | 1.025 | 0.313 | 0.332 | 0.99 | Verlander – R | 3.64 | 0.245 |
| Alfonso Soriano | 0.77 | 0.28 | 0.334 | 1.07 | Lackey – R | 3.48 | 0.231 |
| Logan Morrison | 0.481 | 0.286 | 0.321 | 0.96 | Niese – L | 3.86 | 0.2 |
| Jimmy Rollins | 1.126 | 0.279 | 0.29 | 0.96 | Strasburg – R | 2.96 | 0.246 |
| Trevor Plouffe | 0.612 | 0.288 | 0.307 | 0.99 | Archer – R | 3.19 | 0.229 |
| Josh Hamilton | 1.007 | 0.292 | 0.318 | 1.08 | Keuchel – L | 4.99 | 0.195 |
| Ryan Ludwick | 0.583 | 0.317 | 0.308 | 1.04 | Lohse – R | 3.59 | 0.27 |
| Michael Cuddyer | 1.136 | 0.38 | 0.403 | 0.99 | McCarthy – R | 4.66 | 0.351 |
| Hunter Pence | 1.224 | 0.317 | 0.353 | 0.92 | Kershaw – L | 1.92 | 0.329 |
- This has been a miserable last couple of weeks for Kyle Seager especially against right handers as he has really dropped his average and not done much with the bat at all. I do not trust him here against Wainwright at home who is looking to continue the momentum of his solid start last time against Pittsburgh.
- Much has been made about Verlander’s struggles, and, while they are somewhat concerning, one guy he has really kept in check even this year is Alex Gordon. Gordon is struggling against right handers with a .245 average and .684 OPS this year and in his history against JV only has a .206 average and .651 OPS with 2 homers.
- Here we are again, debating Alfonso Soriano, I guess I just cannot let him go. He faces Lackey tonight and their BVP together is brutal for Alfonso going 5 for 35 with 8 strikeouts and a .402 OPS. Lackey has done well against most all of the Yankees and I actually like him in this game more than I do the Yankees offense. Soriano is pretty poor against right handers, so I am avoiding.
- Logan Morrison couldn’t hit his way out of a paper bag right now. He is ice cold and now has to face a lefty in Niese who aside from a beating at the hands of Cleveland (who beats any lefty), has been very good. Morrison cannot hit left handers, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he did not even start this game.
- A really cheap shortstop punt, Jimmy Rollins, is a good option sometimes, but not tonight. He faces Strasburg, who the Nationals have not shut down yet, and his history against Strasburg is pretty bad. He has gone 2 for 18 against him with 7 strikeouts, and the Phillies offense is inept right now.
- While you cannot really be sure what you are going to get from Chris Archer, you can be sure that you are going to get a guy who has a hard time hitting right handers from Trevor Plouffe. Plouffe is struggling to get any extra base hit right now and his .229 average and .657 OPS against right handers is not going to help anything today.
- Call me crazy, but even after Josh Hamilton recent surge I still find it hard to trust him. Hamilton is hitting lefties a little better but still does not have the history to back up that it will continue. Keuchel is a terrible pitcher and an Angels stack is in order, but Hamilton could be the guy I leave off.
- Ryan Ludwick just is not doing much with the bat right now. The positive is he gets to hit in Miller Park, but the downside is that he has to hit against a guy who is pretty familiar with him in Lohse, and has never allowed Ludwick to do anything, holding him to 3 for 24 with 7 strikeouts, so I am not too high on his prospects today.
- It appears to me as if McCarthy has figured out how to pitch again. He faces Michael Cuddyer today and the Rockies, and Cuddyer has been one of the best hitters in the majors all year long. His salary is high and I am a bit low on him today. McCarthy has held him to 4 for 23 in their careers and Cuddyer does most of his damage in Coors.
- We will try this again. I am going to recommend sitting Pence today even with his monster last couple of weeks. If he can put together a good game against Kershaw who he is 2 for 35 against with 7 strikeouts, I will throw in the towel and say he is matchup proof, but until then, he stays down here.