Tuttle's Take: Week 6

Having qualified for countless live finals, Dan Gaspar (MrTuttle05) knows what it takes to win in DFS. In this space each week, he’ll guide you through the lineup building process for both cash games and tournaments by going in-depth and giving out his “Tuttle’s Take” for every game on the main slate.

Week 6

Arizona Cardinals @ Minnesota Vikings (-10.5) 43

Notes:

Tuttle’s Take:

The Vikings remain uninterested in running the ball and that’s unlikely to change regardless of if a questionable Dalvin Cook is able to suit up this week. Minnesota ranks 31st in rush attempts as QB Kirk Cousins shoulders the majority of the offensive workload, funneling targets to Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs. Thielen has been remarkable this season, topping 100-yards in every game and averaging a massive 27.8 DK points per game over that five-game stretch. He’s the most reliable/consistent fantasy asset this season and he’s finally starting to get priced like it – he’s WR2 on DK and WR4 on FD. Despite his consistency, Thielen will likely continue to be under-owned this week with the majority of owners spending up for Julio at the WR position. Thielen is a strong GPP option as a pivot off Julio and a fine secondary option in cash games.

Stefon Diggs has also been great this season, but is clearly Cousins second option. Diggs’ $400 discount from Thielen on FD isn’t enough for me to consider him as a play over Thielen in cash games and the $900 difference on DK doesn’t seem to be enough either. My exposure to Diggs will be limited to Cousins-Thielen-Diggs stacks or as a Cousins-Diggs stack hoping for a random (unlikely) Thielen down week.

DraftKings’ aggressive pricing puts David Johnson on the map in all formats. DJ seemingly continues to be underutilized, but he is averaging 22.5 touches in Rosen’s two starts. That’s strong opportunity for $5,900 against a defense that ranks 19th in rush DVOA. DJ’s $7,500 tag on FanDuel is an easy fade for me.

Notably, Ricky Seals-Jones has been Rosen’s favorite target through two starts. RSJ is tied with Larry Fitzgerald for the most targets over the last two weeks (10) and is seeing a massive share of air yards (33.9%) for a tight end. Seals-Jones is seeing an average depth of target of 16.5 over the last two weeks. That high aDOT is partly to blame for only converting 10 of his targets into two receptions, but the important note here is that RSJ is not only seeing targets, he’s seeing valuable targets. The Vikings rank 31st in DVOA defending the TE position this season a and with the Cardinals likely playing from behind this makes for a strong volume spot for RSJ. There are a lot of cheap options to roster at tight end this week, but RSJ is one of my favorites and he’ll likely see very low ownership.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Cleveland Browns (+1) 44.5

Notes:

Tuttle’s Take:

Prior to Week Five, there was some talk about Antonio Callaway’s workload being reduced, which is now irrelevant with Rashard Higgins out with a sprained MCL. The absence of Higgins is mostly negligible as he saw a 10.7% target share over the last two weeks with Baker Mayfield under center and the trio of Jarvis Landry, David Njoku, and Callaway should soak up the majority of Mayfield’s targets regardless of who lines up as WR3 for the Browns. While I don’t like the matchup here for Callaway, I do think he sees 5+ targets in this spot and there is some GPP value here for $4,900 on FanDuel and $4,000 on DraftKings.

Somewhat surprisingly Landry’s usage numbers have dropped with Baker at QB. Landry went from a 35.6% target share, 39.6% market share of air yards, and an 11.2 aDOT in Week’s 1-3 to a 25% target share, 19.8% market share of air yards, and a 7.3 aDOT the last two weeks. Landry’s price tag rose sharply after a strong Week 1 performance and there’s not a ton of meat on the bone here. I do think that we’ll see Landry’s usage numbers and aDOT rise in the upcoming weeks and am fine running him out in some GPP lineups.

Melvin Gordon continues to be the most valuable Chargers player to roster on a weekly basis. Gordon’s involvement as a receiver has really buoyed his fantasy value as he sits behind only Keenan Allen with a 22.5% market share. This isn’t only a tough spot for Gordon, but for the Chargers offense as a whole as Los Angeles will travel to Cleveland for a 1:00 EST start against a stout Browns defense that ranks second overall in DVOA this season. The Browns do rank 21st in DVOA in defending RB’s as pass catchers out of the backfield, but I still don’t see a ton of value in MG3’s price tag as he’s priced as RB2 on FanDuel and RB3 on DraftKings.

The Browns rank second in pass DVOA and the only Chargers receiver seeing enough volume to warrant consideration is Keenan Allen. Allen leads LAC with a 26% target share and could see an increase in targets this week with the Browns better defensive backs playing on the boundary. Keenan has lined up in the slot 54.2% of the time this season and Browns slot cornerback TJ Carrie is their weakest link. You’re not playing Keenan Allen in cash games, but at low projected ownership he’s a guy that I’m expecting to be overweight on in GPP’s this week.

Chicago Bears @ Miami Dolphins (+3) 43

Notes:

Tuttle’s Take:

The Bears are coming off a bye week as they travel to Miami to take on the Dolphins in what is likely to be a slow paced defensive struggle. Chicago and Miami rank 30th and 32nd respectively in seconds-per-play and 1st and 5th in defensive DVOA. People may look to chase the Bears offense after Mitchell Trubisky put a six-touchdown stomping on the Bucs prior to their Week Five bye, but I would advise against it. I’m unlikely to roster any player in this game as I just don’t think there will be enough volume for any one player to put up a monster fantasy performance.

Carolina Panthers @ Washington Redskins (-1) 45

Notes:

Tuttle’s Take:

Christian McCaffrey leads the Panthers with a 25% target share and is one of the only true bell-cow backs remaining in the league. McCaffrey’s high volume makes him a weekly cash game option as the Panthers running back is averaging over 23 touches per week, including eight receptions. CMac’s involvement in the receiving game gives him one of the highest floors in the league and Carolina has shown that they’ll feed him the ball on the ground if working with the lead – McCaffrey had 28 Week 3 carries. This is a strong rushing matchup for the Panthers as Washington ranks 30th in rush DVOA on the year and has been much tougher against the pass with a pass DVOA ranking of 10. I expect CMac to continue to see high volume in this game and he can be considered a core play due to volume alone.

Outside of McCaffrey, Cam Newton continues to be the only other Panther worth considering in cash game. Greg Olsen may return this week and isn’t expected to be limited if he does. Olsen’s return would make Devin Funchess, who hasn’t been able to capitalize in Olsen’s absence, completely unplayable. While there can be value in being ahead of the curve in DFS, I would rather take a wait and see approach with Olsen as a 33-year-old coming off a repeat foot injury doesn’t inspire much confidence in me.

Chris Thompson continues to be the lone Washington player that can be considered in GPP’s. Unfortunately, Thompson’s usage is largely game-script dependent as he’s likely to only see an increased role if the Redskins are playing from behind. Thompson would see an uptick in value if Adrian Peterson’s litany of injuries prevented him from suiting up against the Panthers.

Indianapolis Colts @ New York Jets (-2.5) 45.5

Notes:

Tuttle’s Take:

The injuries to the Colts pass catchers continue to pile up as Eric Ebron has yet to practice this week and Jack Doyle and TY Hilton remain out. Erik Swoope would step into Ebron’s high volume role if the latter is unable to go this week against the Jets. Swoope caught a touchdown pass in Week 5 against the Patriots and would likely run a route on the majority of Luck’s dropbacks. Luck’s dependence on TE’s combined with Swoope’s price tag would make him one of the better options of the week if Ebron is indeed absent, but expected high ownership would make him a strong GPP fade.

Luck’s other pass catchers, including receiving back Nyheim Hines, are fringe secondary plays at their respective price tags. The problem is it’s tough to differentiate between guys like Chester Rogers and Ryan Grant and I wouldn’t feel comfortable taking a stand on either guy in cash games. Both guys saw increased volume last week as Luck threw the ball 59 times, but that number could be nearly halved in what’s expected to be more of a “grind it out” game against the Jets. Hines has earned playing time, but at the very least should see a small role reduction as Marlon Mack is expected back this week.

Quincy Enunwa fell off a cliff last week after establishing himself as Darnold’s favorite target over the first couple weeks of the season. Enunwa still leads the Jets with a 28.1% target share and has a slight edge over Robby Anderson with a 25.5% share of the Jets air yards. Enunwa has slowly been seeing more time out wide with Jermaine Kearse stealing slot snaps and it has seemingly hurt Enunwa’s value. Robby Anderson showed he’s still the deep threat on the Jets as he caught two touchdowns on deep balls and totaled 123 yards on just three receptions. Anderson didn’t see a volume spike and his Week 5 performance isn’t an indication of increased involvement in the Jets passing game. I don’t have any interest in the Jets passing game.

Isaiah Crowell had a monster Week 5 carrying the ball 15 times for 219 yards and a touchdown. Like Anderson, Crowell’s massive week wasn’t due to any sort of increased opportunity, it was just a result of running pure (literally). Crowell and Bilal Powell remain in a timeshare and neither can be relied upon for fantasy production while the other is healthy.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) 53

Notes:

Tuttle’s Take:

Just when you start thinking Antonio Brown is dust he responds with a six reception, 101 yard, two touchdown, 31.1 DK point performance. Despite the emergence of Juju, AB84 is still the guy in Pittsburgh as he leads the Steelers in target share (30.7%) and market share of air yards (38.7%). There are better high priced receiving plays than Brown this week (Julio/Thielen), but AB can be used as a pivot off the higher owned options in GPPs. Juju’s price has skyrocketed to the point where it’s tough to justify playing him over AB in any format.

James Conner took advantage of the “Atlanta Falcons funnels targets to running backs” narrative in Week 5 as he caught four balls for 75 yards and further carried the ball 21 times for 110 yards. Conner doesn’t get as a good of a matchup as the Falcons funnel, but the Bengals do rank 23rd in rush DVOA and 26th against RBs as receivers. Conner won’t be nearly as heavily owned as last week, but gets a good matchup and should continue to shoulder the Steelers RB duties while Le’Veon Bell is out. Conner makes for a strong pivot off of Christian McCaffrey and can be considered a secondary option.

Week 5 pregame comments from Marvin Lewis had me worried that Joe Mixon wouldn’t get a full workload. Mixon went on to play 47-of-60 offensive snaps and carried the ball 22 times. As a result, Mixon’s price jumped to $7,500 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Mixon should once again get a heavy workload in Week 6 against a middling Steelers defense. The increased tag makes Mixon more of a secondary option, but there should be enough volume for him to pay off his tag in a big way if he’s efficient.

We’re now five games into the season for the Bengals and Tyler Boyd has the same market share (23.1%) as A.J. Green. Green’s 12.3 aDOT keeps him as Cinci’s top dog in terms of weighted opportunity weighting (.615), but there’s still a significant price gap between Boyd and Green across the industry. From a point-per-dollar perspective option, Boyd remains a better option than Green who is priced as WR4 on DK and WR3 on FD.

C.J. Uzomah was only targeted twice last week, but converted those targets into two receptions and 43 yards. Uzomah was clearly the Bengals pass-catching tight end as he was on the field for 55-of-60 offensive snaps and ran a route on 28 of Andy Dalton’s 36 dropbacks. Uzomah is underpriced across the industry for that type of role and is an excellent pivot off the chalky (if Ebron is out) Erick Swoope.

Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans (-10) 41

Notes:

Tuttle’s Take:

I have yet to roster a Bills player this season and that will continue in Week 6.

Lamar Miller is expected back in a home matchup where the Texans are 10-point favorites. If Miller is ever going to have any fantasy relevance, this is the week. The Bills are a middling run matchup as they rank 14th in rush DVOA, but the main thing is that the volume should be there for Miller. When healthy, Miller has dominated running back duties and he should see 80% of the RB touches again this week for the Texans. I’m not sure if I’ll be able to man up and roster Miller as he seemingly underperforms in these spots more often than not, but he’s theoretically a very strong play for his price this week.

Tre’Davious White has been spectacular this season and will likely line up across from DeAndre Hopkins on the majority of snaps. That should funnel targets to the likes of Will Fuller and Keke Coutee, the latter of which as the more attractive price tag. Coutee has seen 22 targets over his first two games in the NFL and the Texans have looked to get him involved in the offense with a couple carries per game as well. Coaches talked very highly of Coutee in the preseason and he seems to be a relatively safe bet for consistent volume moving forward. Coutee is my favorite Texans pass catcher on a point-per-dollar standpoint this week, although my exposure will likely be limited to GPPs.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) 57.5

Notes:

Tuttle’s Take:

Here it is. The highest total of the week and likely the game that’s the heaviest owned in DFS. Jameis Winston will start for the Bucs at QB against a Falcons team that has been ravaged by injuries and also ranks 28th in pass DVOA. Winston’s $5,800 price tag on DraftKings makes him the primary cash game option there whereas his $7,400 tag on FanDuel puts him in play alongside Andy Dalton at $7,500.

The biggest injury situation to monitor in this game is the status of OJ Howard who surprisingly returned to practice in a limited fashion on Wednesday. Howard’s absence would result in a huge boost in value for Cameron Brate whereas Brate would be relegated to GPP only if Howard does suit up.

The Falcons weakness is the middle of the field, but outside of potentially Brate, the Bucs aren’t suited to exploit the middle of the field. For whatever reason, Adam Humphries continues to man the slot for the Bucs, which limits both Chris Godwin and DeSean Jackson’s time on the field. This keeps Godwin and Jackson from being considered cash game options, while both are strong GPP plays. Mike Evans has only lined up in the slot on 15% of his snaps which means he’ll be left to battle the Falcons boundary corners Robert Alford and Desmond Trufant. Evans has the highest combination of floor and upside out of all the Bucs receiving options, but is still best left for GPPs.

Julio Jones is the guy receiving the most opportunity on the team with the highest implied total on the slate. Julio leads the league with a .77 weighted opportunity rating and gets a tremendous matchup against a Tampa Bay defense that ranks dead last in pass DVOA. Julio tops all WR/CB matchup charts as the trio of Carlton Davis, M.J. Stewart and Brent Grimes attempt to slow #11 down. Jones is averaging 19.5 DK points per game this season in receptions + yardage alone – with those numbers, any touchdown scored is just a cherry on top. JJ will rightfully be heavily owned this week and is a core play.

I rank the remaining Falcons pass catchers as follows: Mohamed Sanu, Calvin Ridley, and Austin Hooper. Sanu and Hooper are both cash game considerations for me whereas Ridley is GPP only.

It’s looking like Devonta Freeman may miss yet another week of action after being active in Week 5. Ito Smith is here to stay for the Falcons, but Freeman’s absence would mean a lion’s share of running back duties for Tevin Coleman who is down to $5,400 on DraftKings and $6,300 on FanDuel. A lack of strong value options this week would lead to Coleman being a core play if Freeman is in fact inactive.

Seattle Seahawks @ Oakland Raiders (+3) 47.5

Notes:

Tuttle’s Take:

This is the most interesting game of the week to me. There are a handful of guys I have interest in for GPP’s, but no options are “cheap” enough to invest in for cash games.

I ashamedly played Doug Baldwin in cash games last week and was saddled with his one catch for one-yard performance. Perhaps more concerning than his one catch was the fact he was only targeted one time, with Tyler Lockett stealing the show catching three balls for 101 yards and a touchdown. To be fair, Russell Wilson did only throw the ball 21 times despite the offense putting up 31 points. I do think we have to worry about Baldwin’s effectiveness playing with a knee injury, but this seems like a good bounce-back spot against 33-year old Leon Hall. Lockett does have more big play upside over Baldwin and I have interest in stacking Wilson-Baldwin-Lockett in GPPs.

Chris Carson led the Seahawks’ backfield with 20 carries, but saw nearly equal time on the field as Mike Davis. It’s best to be cautious with this backfield moving forward, but Carson is still cheap enough where I wouldn’t fight you if you wanted to use him in GPPs.

Amari Cooper’s weekly fantasy production is hilarious. Starting with Week 1, Cooper’s DK points: 2.8, 24.6, 3.7, 29.8, 2.0. Based on the odd/even week trend, this should be a smash spot for Cooper, right? Cooper’s inconsistency will keep him out of cash game consideration moving forward, but his upside makes him a weekly GPP option and I like running him back with Seattle players for a “sneaky” game stack.

Los Angeles Rams @ Denver Broncos (+7) 52.5

Notes:

Tuttle’s Take:

Both Cooper Kupp and Brandin Cooks are currently in the concussion protocol, but seem likely to play against the Broncos. If one, or neither, are active, Josh Reynolds jumps into the conversation as a decent value option getting snaps for a potent offense. Boundary receivers are the way to attack this Denver defense with Chris Harris manning the slot, which means Cooks and Robert Woods would be the receivers to target in this matchup. Woods has the higher weighted opportunity rating (.621) and is cheaper than Cooks – if choosing between the two, Woods would be the guy I roster. Both are viable GPP options.

Isaiah Crowell ran wild against the Broncos last week and the Broncos rank 26th in rush DVOA five weeks into the season. DraftKings (over)adjusted accordingly and hiked Gurley’s price to $10,000 and Gurley is also RB1 on FanDuel where he’s $9,500. Gurley isn’t fitting my optimal cash game construction early in the week on DraftKings (he’s easy to fit on FanDuel), but I’m also not going to tell you to fade him on either site. I will say Gurley’s fantasy production has relied heavily on touchdowns as he’s totaled 9 touchdowns over the first five weeks. An exorbitant price tag combined with an over-reliance on touchdowns for fantasy production means I’ll be underweight on Gurley in GPPs.

Aqib Talib is hurt and Marcus Peters has been #bad so far this year, which has led to the Rams allowing more points than expected to start the season. Still, I don’t have a whole lot of interest in this Broncos offense that is giving snaps to three running backs. Any fantasy value from the Broncos will need to be found in the receiving game. Denver is likely to be playing from behind, which should lead to strong volume. Like Denver, the Rams best cornerback (currently) is manning the slot, which is bad news for Emmanuel Sanders. As I’m not interested in investing heavily in the Broncos offense, Courtland Sutton would be the guy I would take a flier on in GPPs over Demaryius Thomas as Sutton is only $3,500 on DK and $4,800 on FD. Sutton has an ankle injury worth monitoring leading up to kickoff.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Dallas Cowboys (+3) 41

Notes:

Tuttle’s Take:

Ezekiel Elliott is popping in early week optimals on DraftKings due to his $7,000 price tag, but I’m just not sure I can do it. The individual volume should continue to be there for Elliott who leads the Cowboys with a 28% target share, but I’m concerned the overall play volume for the Cowboys won’t be there. Pace of play projects to be slow in this matchup and the Cowboys 19-point implied total seems almost generous with how poor the offense has been this season. I’ll consider Elliott as a secondary option for now, but I’m unlikely to have any shares come Sunday if value like Tevin Coleman opens up.

T.J. Yeldon certainly benefited from Corey Grant’s early game injury, but Yeldon proceeded to play 77-of-83 offensive snaps for the Jags, carrying the ball 10 times and converting 10 targets into eight receptions. The Jaguars signed Jamaal Charles, but I would expect Yeldon to shoulder the vast majority of the running back workload once again this week. I don’t feel comfortable listing Yeldon as a “core” option, but he’s playable in all formats.

Austin Seferian-Jenkins also left Week 5’s game early, which lead to nine targets for Niles Paul. Paul would stick out as a fine tight end value option most weeks, but we have a plethora of cheap TE options this week where Paul feels unnecessary.

I’m not interested in any wide receivers in this game.

Baltimore Ravens @ Tennessee Titans (+2.5) 41

Notes:

Tuttle’s Take:

I was a bit under-researched last week as I was away for a family vacation, but I was shocked when I saw Taywan Taylor’s ownership. Regardless of how thin the Titans wide receiving corps is, coaches have shown known indication of wanting to get Taylor more involved in the offense. Taylor was fifth in the team in routes run last week, totaling just 25-of-54 snaps and running a route on 15 of Mariota’s 30 dropbacks. Taylor’s athleticism will allow him to break big plays, but he’s unplayable in cash games until he sees his volume trend up.

Corey Davis remains the sole playable Titans pass catcher as he’s dominated targets with a 30.4% target share and 43.7% market share of air yards. Davis ranks sixth in the league in weighted opportunity rating and is a weekly play based on volume alone. He’s a GPP only option this week.

John Harbaugh remains committed to a backfield split between Javorius Allen and Alex Collins, which makes both guys unplayable for the foreseeable future. Michael Crabtree and John Brown remain the only playable Ravens and neither stand out in this matchup. Crabtree leads the team in targets, but Brown puts him to shame with a 44.6%-to-20.7% market share of air yards and Brown is clearly the more attractive fantasy option. Brown’s deep targets make him a weekly GPP option for as long as he remains reasonably priced.

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About the Author

  • Dan Gaspar (MrTuttle05)

  • Since his addition to the RotoGrinders community, MrTuttle has been continually climbing the Grinders leaderboards and is currently ranked in Top 150 overall. He has qualified for countless live finals as well and has proven himself to be one of the best high-stakes DFS players in the industry. You can find him on Twitter @MrTuttle05.

Comments

  • rimbo90

    Probably a stupid question Dan, but when you say “core play” does that refer to someone you would have in like 50%+ of your lineups if you’re multi entering some gpps? Or what does it mean exactly.

  • acdawg712

    Quick ? – For the 2nd table for each game, it looks like the items all say ‘Allowed’ under ‘Offensive Target Identity” and ‘Target %’ under ‘Defensive Target Identity’. Can you just confirm whether it’s a labeling, actual numbers, or I am stupid issue?

  • willtendo

    Thanks!

  • MrTuttle05

    • 244

      RG Overall Ranking

    • 2016 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

    • 2017 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    Hey rimbo! Core play means a guy that will be in my cash lineup and will also have heavy exposure to in GPP’s.

  • rimbo90

    Thanks man.

  • jjaayyzz

    Hey Dan, you mentioned that Todd Gurley is easy to fit on FD, which implies there are a lot of value plays. What are some cash game core value pieces that you see in play on FD ?

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