Utilizing NFL DFS Sims for Week 11 DraftKings Lineups
NFL DFS Sims has arrived in the form of SimLabs. You can learn more about how to utilize SimLabs by reading our DFS Sims FAQ.
Where an optimizer generates lineups via user customization and the user grades the lineups, SimLabs simulates the field and rates the lineups for the user.
Every week, we’ll take a late look at the SimLabs output and briefly discuss any takeaways. For Week 11, I ran the default settings for large field contests with a low results range and we got a lot of clumping.
One option is to raise the results range to make lineups more unique. Instead, I decided to play with it. I raised the simulation weight to high, the ownership weight to medium, the upside weight to medium, and the correlation weight to medium. I’m looking more for lineups that make sense instead of the best point-per-dollar combinations.
The first takeaway was that the exposure trickled even more to the top in the Texans and Cardinals. Next, that the Texans and Cardinals are overwhelmingly the stacks that SimLabs is spitting out. Then, that QB exposure was not really spread out after C.J. Stroud and Kyler Murray, while RB was very spread out. And last, there are plenty of DSTs to play.
All simple stuff.
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So Many Stacks
There are about a dozen stacks I wanna play, but I only play 20 lineups. I fully expected to see the sims exposure spread out for stacks.
This wasn’t the case. The sims are greatly favoring the Cardinals-Texans game and saying to go heavy on both sides of the field. And this isn’t crazy.
This game has the highest total on the slate (48.5), there’s a lot of value on both sides, and the game is just barely competitive enough to look like it could shoot out. Stroud and Murray are projected to go around 10% owned because of the spread-out ownership, so it won’t cost a crippling amount of lineups to go overweight. But it will cost a lot of lineups.
If this were the only game with a total in the 50’s with no other game over 48, I get the over-exposure, if not an onslaught. But the Lions-Bears game is right behind this game with a 47.5 total, and the Lions have a similar higher implied total (27.50) than the Texans (27.25).
Of the 150 lineups we ran, 2.67% had Jared Goff, 0.67% had Justin Fields, and 3.33% had D.J. Moore, while Amon-Ra St. Brown was in 11.33%. Goff’s ~8% pOWN% is just a hair below Stroud and Murray’s and the SimLabs exposure to St. Brown is right about his ~12% pOWN%.
And we haven’t discussed the best offense in football with the highest total on the slate (30.00), yet. Tyreek Hill is expensive, so his exposure was only 11.33%, Jaylen Waddle only 3.33%, and zero lineups had Tua Tagovailoa.
It’s the Niners stack that comes in third with Brock Purdy at 15.33% exposure as the best point-per-dollar QB on the slate, followed by Goff, Murray, and Sam Howell. Deebo Samuel pops huge in the sims at 30.67% exposure. Beware, though, Samuel is $900 cheaper than Brandon Aiyuk, but Aiyuk projects better at lower ownership.
Anyway, getting to my point: with so many ways to go, the primary takeaway shouldn’t be to triple the field on Cardinals and Texans. The primary takeaway is that we should be taking some stands on a few stacks versus trying to cover all of our bases, splitting exposure to 10 or 12 stacks. Stack the Cardinals, Texans, Dolphins, Commanders, Lions, Bears, Cowboys, Niners. Hell, the Chargers and Jaguars are very much in play too. Just don’t try to stack all of them.
All simple stuff, right?
RB is Not Good
Over $7,000, salaries are pretty efficient at RB. It sucks because there are a lot of blowouts on this slate.
First, off, we just play Devin Singletary at $5,300, but how much? He’s projected for ~31% ownership and the sims are slightly underweight on him at 25.33%. This is about as low as I would feel comfortable going, and there is an argument toward hitting the lock button because value is really hard to come by at the position.
The next best RB per dollar is James Conner and the sims were most-exposed to him at 30.67% than any other RB.
And, then, things get weird. 26.67% of lineups were exposed to Josh Jacobs, despite being a 13.5-point underdog. 20.67% of lineups were exposed to Christian McCaffrey, who is the 3.45 median point higher-projected than the next RB, but is $9,300. Then, we get to another underdog in Aaron Jones and the decently priced Travis Etienne both at 16.00%. Breece Hall feels like the best per-dollar play in the $6,000 range, but he’s a 9.0-point dog, and the sims are only on him in 11.33% of lineups.
I wish I could rank five RBs for you, all things considered, but I’s still confused at this point and the sims aren’t really taking big stands. Sure, SimLabs has us spending down in most cases, but has us spending up in a lot of places, too.
This is not simple stuff.
17.21%
We had the Cowboys DST at 17.5% ownership, but only 7.33% of SimLabs has the Cowboys DST at 17.5% ownership, but only 7.33% of SimLabs lineups were exposed to them. They flopped for the price.
The Commanders, an inferior defense, are in the same spot as a huge favorite against the Little Giants at 17.21% pOWN%, but for only $3,600. This is a palatable salary for the spot, but DST is so damn random.
It’s reasonable to want to play this defense in a vacuum, but we don’t play DFS in a vacuum. We live in a world of salary cap, a great DFS mind likes to say, and ownership is a cost.
The sims have us exposed to the Commanders in 10.67% of lineups and that might be the sweet spot. Underweight, but not totally fading. But, Lord, this ownership is a heavy load.
Not playing the 17.21%-owned DST feels like the simple stuff. Especially over $3,000. Feel free to tell me what you think in the RG NFL Discord channel. DST should be fairly mindless, but the discussion around how to approach the roster slot brings about interesting concepts.
It’s in the Syllabus
Visit our SimLabs Discord channel to read the discussions people are having about their experience and raise any questions. That said, the SimLabs FAQ is extraordinarily fantastic. A lot of questions can be answered by the FAQ. Please consult it, but feel free to post your questions. Especially the one that you think might seem stupid. We’re all in this together.