Week 13 NFL Prop Bets: Three Predictions for Sunday
What kind of performances can we expect on Sunday afternoon from De’Von Achane, Derrick Henry, and Trey McBride? Follow along as our NFL betting expert, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite NFL prop bets and DFS pick’em predictions for today – Sunday, December 3, 2023. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more football props, at ScoresandOdds.
Week 13 of the NFL regular season features an 11-game Sunday slate beginning with seven contests at 1:00 p.m. ET, followed by three mid-afternoon games before everyone gets to settle in for Sunday Night Football.
By Sunday morning, sides and totals are mostly stripped of their value, meaning that bettors are often best suited turning to the player prop market for their last-minute bets ahead of kickoff! If choosing to wager on the player prop market this afternoon, we have three prop leans for this afternoon’s matchups!
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Week 13 NFL Player Props for Sunday
- De’Von Achane u45.5 Rushing Yards
- Derrick Henry 100+ Rushing Yards
- Trey McBride More Than 48.5 Receiving Yards
De’Von Achane u45.5 Rushing Yards (-115), PointsBet
Since Week 6, the Commanders defense ranks 5th-best in rush EPA/play and 3rd-best in rush success rate. During that stretch, they have had games in which they did not play up to their standard, but they have also held D’Andre Swift to 57 rushing yards and they kept Saquon Barkley to 3.6 yards per carry outside of one long run that went for 36 yards. On Sunday, the Dolphins offensive line is a complete wild card, with Terron Armstead, Kendall Lamm, Lester Cotton, and Robert Jones each being limited at practice on Friday. De’Von Achane has not made it through a full football game since October 8th against the Giants and is likely to be eased back into action in Week 13 after pump-faking us all with a one-carry performance against the Raiders in his first attempt to return to the field. There are a lot of ways that this could go under.
Derrick Henry 100+ Rushing Yards (+425), Bet365
Derrick Henry is obviously not the wrecking ball that he used to be in the run game, but he is still quite serviceable for the Titans and unquestionably is going to receive the bulk of the rushing attempts on Sunday against the Colts. Since cornerback JuJu Brents, one of the Colts’ better run defenders, last played in Week 7, Indianapolis’ defense ranks 31st in rush EPA/play and 32nd in success rate. Henry has at least 76 rushing yards in seven consecutive home games and at least 100 rushing yards four times in that span. If looking for a longer-shot ticket on Sunday afternoon, this is great value in a great matchup.
NFL DFS Pick’em
Trey McBride More Than 48.5 Receiving Yards, PrizePicks
Linebacker Kwon Alexander last played in Week 10 for the Steelers before ending up on Injured Reserve with an Achilles injury. Alexander ranked 17th out of 78 linebackers this season in coverage grade per PFF, and his absence has created a vacuum in the middle of the field for Pittsburgh’s defense. In Week 10, the Steelers allowed 64 receiving yards to Luke Musgrave. In Week 11, Pittsburgh allowed 56 receiving yards to David Njoku. Last weekend, the Steelers allowed Tanner Hudson to catch four passes on five targets. Simply, this defense is being gashed by tight ends right now, which makes McBride an appealing option in Week 13 despite his injury designation heading into the weekend.
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