Week 16 NFL Prop Bets: Three Predictions for Sunday
What kind of performances can we expect on Sunday from Jonathan Taylor, AJ Dillon, and Dalton Schultz? Follow along as our NFL betting expert, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite NFL prop bets for today – Sunday, December 24, 2023. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more football props, at ScoresandOdds.
Happy Christmas Eve! As Santa is beginning his trek around the globe delivering presents, the NFL community will be in front of their television consuming a full slate of football. This afternoon’s slate features 9 games, beginning with 6 contests in the 1:00pm ET window.
If looking to wager on the player prop market on Sunday we have three prop leans for today’s early action!
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Week 16 NFL Player Props for Sunday, December 24
- Jonathan Taylor OVER 69.5 Rushing Yards
- AJ Dillon UNDER 27.5 Rushing Yards
- Dalton Schultz OVER 30.5 Receiving Yards
Jonathan Taylor OVER 69.5 Rushing Yards (-120), FanDuel
During the first seven weeks of the season, with defensive tackle Grady Jarrett on the field, the Falcons’ run defense ranked 1st in EPA/play and 6th in success rate, but they have regressed to 6th in EPA/play and 17th in success rate since he landed on injured reserve. Since that point, Atlanta has allowed 101 rushing yards to Derrick Henry, 44 rushing yards to Alexander Mattison, 73 rushing yards to James Conner, 69 rushing yards to Alvin Kamara, 102 rushing yards to Rachaad White, and 87 rushing yards to Chuba Hubbard. Though Jonathan Taylor is returning from injury, he is returning from a thumb ailment, which should not be a huge negative factor for him in this spot. He is likely to have a lot of success on the ground in Week 16, especially with Zack Moss having been ruled out.
AJ Dillon UNDER 27.5 Rushing Yards (-110), FanDuel
On Friday, head coach Matt LaFleur commented to the media that he thinks AJ Dillon will be able to suit up on Sunday, even with his broken thumb, but he made no promises about workload. Even when Dillon has been healthy this year, he has not been a running back that has forced his way onto the field, posting the 8th-worst rushing yards over expected (RYOE) per attempt of any qualified player at his position this fall. Aaron Jones did not have an injury designation, meaning that he figures to get the lion’s hare of the opportunities in the Green Bay ground attack in Week 16. The under makes sense here for a player who is second in line for touches, not fully healthy, and playing a Carolina defense that ranks 7th in EPA/play and 7th in success rate since returning Yetur Gross-Matos and Jaycee Horn to the field in Week 13.
Dalton Schultz OVER 30.5 Receiving Yards (-115), BetMGM
Last weekend, Dalton Schultz played for the first time in nearly a month, but he showed few signs of rust, catching 4 passes for 58 receiving yards with backup quarterback Case Keenum throwing him the football. Schultz was tied for 2nd on the team in targets against the Titans in Week 15 and figures to be plenty involved again in Week 16 against a Browns defense that is dealing with a litany of injuries on the defensive side of the ball. Notably, Cleveland will be without linebacker Anthony Walker, who has been one of the better coverage options in the middle of the field this year. The Browns have allowed at least 5 catches or 35 receiving yards to each of the last three tight ends they have faced. Schultz should have plenty of chances to continue that trend on Sunday afternoon.
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