Week 2 NFL Betting Picks for Every Game
Hey, everyone! Welcome to SharpSide’s Weekly NFL Betting Breakdown. If you haven’t read this article before, I will be breaking down my favorite football bets for every single NFL game in the current week. That includes over/under totals, point spreads, and even some prop bets.
One thing you should know is that if you were to bet every single game and over/under total each week, you are almost guaranteed to end up in the red in the long run. Vegas lines are good and Vegas makes money for a reason, but my breakdown aims to help you with this. In my breakdown, I will provide a rating next to each bet to show my interest on each one. The rating will range from 1-10. A rating of 1 means there is a very small edge, in my opinion, and this is just the line that I would pick if I were forced to. A rating of 10 means it’s one of my favorite bets of the week and I think it has a huge edge.
Keep in mind when placing bets that you should never wager more than you can afford and no matter how good the odds are you will basically never find something that is a “sure thing,” unless you actually have a friend in the mob who is literally breaking some legs (if you do, you either need to report that person to the authorities immediately or you need to start feeding me those bets and never tell me the reason why for my own legal reasons!).
Week 1 Recap
Each week I’m going to be posting the results from the prior week, along with my overall record for the year. Win or lose, it’s important to track your results as you aim to improve as a bettor. Below are the results from Week 1 of the NFL season.
As expected, if you look at the overall winning percentage after picking every single game and over/under you are likely to end up somewhere around 50%. Las Vegas is very good at setting odds, and although there are certain lines that hold a decent edge due to public perception, many Vegas lines will carry no statistical advantage. As I suggested last week, if your goal is to make money, then you shouldn’t be betting on every game. Focus on lines you are most confident in.
As you can see, my winning percentage was nearly 60% on picks I made with a confidence rating of seven or higher, whereas I was down at 40% if my confidence rating was six or lower. It’s best to identify a few key plays and goes with those.
Now, let’s get started breaking down the lines for Week 2 of the NFL season.
Indianapolis Colts at Washington Redskins (-6)
Over/under: 47
My Pick: IND (+6) – rating 7/10
My Pick: Under 47 – rating 4/10
With the initial look at the Vegas line, it’s not surprising to see that Washington is a 6-point favorite. The line opened up at -4 and was quickly bet up to 6. The public’s perception of the Redskins after beating down the Arizona Cardinals is going to be high. Likewise, the Colts being beat handily by the Cincinnati Bengals at home is another part of the reason for this high line.If this line moves to 7, which is highly unlikely, then bet the bank, but as of right now I still have a pretty decent amount of interest in this line.
Indianapolis is a better team than the public perceives and Washington is worse. This is a clear case of a Week 1 overreaction on both sides and 6 points is too much to give here for the Redskins. Especially considering that this game is likely to be a fairly low-scoring and slow-paced.
As for the over/under, I expect the under to hit here because neither of these teams are really going to be bombing plays down the field and are likely to just settle for small gains throughout the entire game.
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-6)
Over/under: 44.5
My Pick: CAR (+6) – rating 2/10
My Pick: Under 44.5 – rating 7/10
This line started at -5 and hasn’t had a huge amount of movement. Atlanta is a much better team at home and although they did just lose to the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 1, they looked like the same team that we’ve seen in the past. Carolina, on the other hand, did not look fantastic on offense in Week 1, but neither did the Dallas Cowboys on the other side. The Panthers still managed to win the game by 8 points. I’m not a huge fan of either of these teams being better than the other, but 6 points is too much to give here and I won’t be surprised at all if Carolina wins the game outright.
This is likely to be a low-scoring game played at a slow pace. The bet I like much better is the under of 44.5. Both offenses are overrated and both defenses are underrated, plus both these teams play at a slow pace. My best guess for this game is a Falcons victory over the Panthers by a score of 17-14.
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (PK)
Over/under: 46
There’s one clear, big question here: is Aaron Rodgers some supernatural being that is able to heal from a knee injury immediately and play in this game? Currently, neither of these lines are up on the board at most sportsbooks because until we know whether Rodgers will play or not, the lines will change drastically. My picks entirely depend on whether Rodgers plays or not, and you can check my Twitter feed for an update on my thoughts. This will likely be an overreaction spot either way, and I’m guessing I’m going to be on Minnesota if Rodgers plays and on Green Bay if he doesn’t.
Los Angeles Chargers (-7.5) at Buffalo Bills
Over/under: 43
My Pick: BUF (+7.5) – rating 8/10
My Pick: Over 43 – rating 4/10
This line opened up at -9 for the Chargers and quickly got bet down to -7.5. Vegas obviously saw what happened to this Buffalo team on opening weekend and set the line too high. At this moment, I still think that this line is way too high. Buffalo is the home team here and I never like giving up 7.5 points for a team at home. The Bills are slightly above .500 against the spread at home, as are the Chargers on the road. Joey Bosa is likely to be out for this game and the public doesn’t realize how much that affects this Chargers defense.
With the lack of ability for the Chargers to get a pass rush without Bosa, I expect Josh Allen to be fine. By no means do I mean good, but I don’t expect him to Nathan Peterman himself and throw five picks. The Bills can likely run the ball this game and play conservatively, keeping it close enough to get the cover at home.
As for the over, the Chargers have a good offense that can put up points in droves. Although the Chargers defense is stout, I expect both teams to put up more than 21 points here.
Houston Texans (-2) at Tennessee Titans
Over/under: 45
My Pick: HOU (-2) – rating 7/10
My Pick: Over 45 – rating 7/10
This is one of the games where I expect that people are reacting way too much to last week. Deshaun Watson didn’t do anything fantastic in Week 1 like everyone was expecting him to do this season, but that was mostly the cause of him going against the best coach in the NFL in Bill Belichick. This week is a whole lot different going up against a team that just allowed 27 points to the Miami Dolphins. Last year, both these teams were in the middle of the pack in DVOA in both offense and defense, as ranked by FootballOutsiders, but Houston has made drastic strides with Watson being back. Tennessee should be better with the addition of Dion Lewis.
I’m expecting a rout here for the Texans and a high-scoring game with it. The Titans have hit the over 62.5% of the time at home since 2016. Hammer the over and the Texans here.
Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4)
Over/under: 52.5
My Pick: PIT (-4) – rating 2/10
My Pick: Under 52.5 – rating 9/10
The over/under for this game opened up at 49.5 and was quickly bet up to 52.5 due to the massive amount of points put up by Kansas City in the first game. This isn’t surprising, as the public is quick to overact to one-week occurrences, and this week especially so with it being the first week of the season. But KC is not this good on offense and the Steelers were a top 10 defense according to DVOA last year. Pittsburgh is much better at home and, although they do tend to be high-scoring games, 52.5 is way too high for almost any team and especially for one as good on defense as the Steelers.
Kansas City’s secondary is one of the worst in the league, and with an inexperienced QB like Patrick Mahomes, I don’t expect him to repeat what he did last week against a Los Angeles Chargers defense that lacked Joey Bosa. I think this game likely ends in the 27-17 range with the Steelers coming out on top.
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (-3)
Over/under: 43
My Pick: MIA (+3) – rating 7/10
My Pick: Over 43 – rating 8/10
This is another classic overreaction spot. The line for this game started out as a pick’em, but then the New York Jets absolutely destroyed the Detroit Lions in Matt Patricia’s first game. Sam Darnold may have looked good in his first start, but I don’t expect him to keep up the same great stuff every game going forward.
Both these teams were well below average in DVOA last year and both teams have made some significant changes on the the offensive front. Considering the amount of points both teams went for in Week 1 (granted a lot of the Jets points came off turnovers), I expect this game to be a shootout. I suggest hammering the over here and taking the free 3 points with Miami as I think Vegas had this right in the beginning as a pick’em.
Philadelphia Eagles (-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Over/under: 44
My Pick: PHI (-3) – rating 5/10
My Pick: Under 44 – rating 5/10
I have a little bit of interest in this one, mostly because of what happened Week 1 with both of these teams. Tampa Bay obviously put a clinic on the New Orleans Saints and put up more points than I ever thought was possible by a Ryan Fitzpatrick team (and I’m a huge Fitz fan). Philadelphia pulled out a win, but didn’t look impressive at all in it. This line probably should be closer to -5 for the Eagles, considering how good they are, but with the Bucs doing so well Week 1 people are likely to think that they are better than they are.
Tampa Bay just happened to run so efficiently (Fitzpatrick had a 156.3 QB rating) that I expect huge regression. Eat the points with the Eagles and take the under because of the slow pace that Philadelphia is likely to run at.
Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints (-9)
Over/under: 49
My Pick: NO (-9) – rating 3/10
My Pick: Over 49 – rating 2/10
We all saw what happened Week 1 for New Orleans, who is clearly one of the best teams in the league. Don’t overact to a one-week sample size. I know that this is a huge point spread and that Cleveland is a much better team than they have been in the past, but since the beginning of 2016, the Browns are 5-11 against the spread on the road. The Saints are a great home team and vastly better than Cleveland. I don’t generally like taking teams who are this big of a favorite, which is why the low rating, but the Saints are a much better team and I’m willing to eat the points.
As for the over, the Browns have a drastically improved offense. With both these offenses playing in a dome, I expect this game to be high scoring.
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-13)
Over/under: 45
My Pick: ARI (+13) – rating 9/10
My Pick: Over 45 – rating 7/10
There’s not a chance in hell I’m eating 13 points, even with a team as good as the Los Angeles Rams. I’m mostly disregarding any against-the-spread numbers here for each team, as they are much different than in prior years, but this is clearly a situation where people are overacting to the Week 1 loss that the Arizona Cardinals had. This line opened up at -11 and even that might have been too high.
The Cardinals are not nearly this bad of a team and still have a few decent offensive weapons. Sam Bradford is not a terrible QB when healthy. I know people say that a lot, but that’s cause it’s true.
Take the giant amount of points here and the over knowing that Arizona isn’t going to get shut down again and points are going to be scored.
Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers (-6)
Over/under: 48
My Pick: DET (+6) – rating 7/10
My Pick: Under 48 – rating 5/10
You’re probably sick of hearing this, but this is another overreaction spot here. Everyone saw Detroit get hammered in Week 1 against the New York Jets, but this is still a team that people expected to possibly get a playoff spot. Everyone is overhyped on Jimmy Garappolo because of what he did at the end of last season. He is a good quarterback, but this line opened up at -3 and jumped all the way to -6. This is way too many points to give up for teams that are close to evenly matched.
Take the large number of points here and know that the public is weighing way too much into Detroit’s Week 1 play.
New England Patriots (-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Over/under: 45.5
My Pick: NE (-1) – rating 8/10
My Pick: Over 45.5 – rating 2/10
This might be an overreaction by a lot of people due to New England’s lack of depth on offense right now, or this may be me overthinking how good New England is, but in any case, the Patriots are 29-10 ATS since the beginning of 2016. This may have to do with people’s hatred to New England, but I’m almost never betting on Bill Belichick to lose a game so I’ll take this in what is nearly a straight up bet.
Jacksonville may be without Leonard Fournette, which will be a drastic downgrade for them. Although New England may be without many of their running backs and wide receivers, Belichick always finds a way to make due with what he has. I know that Jacksonville should have won that playoff game last year, but I’m still rolling with the Patriots here.
One thing to look out for here is the weather. With Hurricane Florence possibly affecting the game, we may see a bit more of a ground and pound affair, which, if Fournette and Burkhead are out, may very well result in a low-scoring game. Right now, I’m on the over, barely, but if both running backs are out and the weather is going to be a factor, I would just as easily move to backing the under. Be on the lookout for these potential issues if you are planning on waiting to bet the game until Saturday or Sunday.
Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-6)
Over/under: 46
My Pick: OAK (+6) – rating 3/10
My Pick: Under 46 – rating 2/10
This is mostly as stay-away spot for me. This line opened up at -4.5 and quickly moved to -6 because of Jon Gruden’s lack of ability to play in the future, which he showed on Monday night. I really don’t see much value here and the lines are about where they should be. In a division game, I’m less likely to give the much better team in Denver the nod considering the 6-point spread. My heart says Denver, but the numbers point toward Oakland being the better play.
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-3)
Over/under: 42.5
My Pick: DAL (-3) – rating 2/10
My Pick: Under 42.5 – rating 5/10
This is another stay-away game for me. Both teams probably aren’t going to play at a big pace and neither of them are fantastic on offense. These teams are evenly matched, so I’m giving the slight edge to Dallas here just because they are the home team. If this line moves to -2.5, I’d be much heavier on the Cowboys, but if it moved to -3.5 I’d probably bet the Giants.
The much better bet in this game is the under. Both these teams are a lot better on defense than people give them credit for and both teams are not good on offense. Expect this game to be fairly run-heavy and to not have a whole lot of points scored here.
Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears (-3.5)
Over/under: 43
My Pick: SEA (+3.5) – rating 4/10
My Pick: Under 43 – rating 4/10
This is another game where the lines are about where they should be. Seattle is historically worse on the road and aren’t the team they used to be. Conversely, the Bears are a much better team than they’ve been in the past with the addition of a competent coach and Khalil Mack added to the defense. This line opened up at -3 and that’s where it should have stayed, which is why I’m rolling with Seattle. If it moved to -2.5, I’d be on the Bears. These teams are evenly matched and I expect this game to end around 20-17 with both teams running the ball a decent amount and eating up the clock.
You can bet the Seahawks and the under, but this is a game that if it were played 100 times, you wouldn’t win enough to beat the Juice.