Week 3 NFL Betting Picks for Every Game
Hey, everyone! Welcome to SharpSide’s Weekly NFL Betting Breakdown. If you haven’t read this article before, I will be breaking down my favorite football bets for every single NFL game in the current week. That includes over/under totals, point spreads, and even some prop bets.
One thing you should know is that if you were to bet every single game and over/under total each week, you are almost guaranteed to end up in the red in the long run. Vegas lines are good and Vegas makes money for a reason, but my breakdown aims to help you with this. In my breakdown, I will provide a rating next to each bet to show my interest on each one. The rating will range from 1-10. A rating of 1 means there is a very small edge, in my opinion, and this is just the line that I would pick if I were forced to. A rating of 10 means it’s one of my favorite bets of the week and I think it has a huge edge.
Keep in mind when placing bets that you should never wager more than you can afford and no matter how good the odds are you will basically never find something that is a “sure thing,” unless you actually have a friend in the mob who is literally breaking some legs (if you do, you either need to report that person to the authorities immediately or you need to start feeding me those bets and never tell me the reason why for my own legal reasons!).
Week 2 Recap
Each week I’m going to be posting the results from the prior week, along with my overall record for the year. Win or lose, it’s important to track your results as you aim to improve as a bettor. Below are the results from Week 2 of the NFL season.
Look, I’m not going to sugarcoat this. This was the worst week I’ve ever had in sports betting. I don’t think I could do any worse if I tried. I expected everyone to overreact to Week 1, but really, they reacted about right to Week 1. Things we have to keep in mind moving forward is that with the new changes in rules to the passing games there is going to be a lot more scoring this year. People are likely going to overreact to that.
Indianapolis Colts at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5)
Over/under: 47.5
Sunday, September 23, 2018, at 1 p.m. ET
Lincoln Financial Field
Philadelphia, PA
My Pick: IND (+6.5) – rating 2/10
My Pick: Under 47.5 – rating 7/10
As of right now, the spread on this game offers little to no value. The Philadelphia Eagles will have Carson Wentz back in this game, but realistically Vegas doesn’t add to much value for Wentz considering that the line started at 7 and quickly moved down to 6.5 and has stayed there even with the Wentz news. With 56% of the money coming in on Philadelphia and with no line movement, we can expect that the sharps are still on Indianapolis. If the line gets back to 7 you can hammer it a bit harder on the Indianapolis side, but as of right now I see little to no value in betting the spread.
As for the over/under, the public is hammering the over, with 57% of the bets coming in for the over. Philadelphia still has a stout defense and even though Andrew Luck did throw a ton in the first game of the year, the Week 2 game for the Colts hit the under pretty decisively while the Eagles game barely hit the over despite the team going against one of the hottest offenses in the league with Ryan Fitzpatrick and company (#FitzForMVP!). I’m expecting this to be a slow-paced game where the under hits pretty decisively.
Cincinnati Bengals at Carolina Panthers (-3)
Over/under: 44
Sunday, September 23, 2018, at 1 p.m. ET
Bank of America Stadium
Charlotte, NC
My Pick: CIN (+3) – rating 9/10
My Pick: Under 44 – rating 4/10
There has been no line movement on this one since it opened, and the majority of the public is on the over and Carolina. As it stands right now, without Vegas moving the line and with both teams covering the spread at around a 57% clip since the beginning of last year, I don’t have a whole lot of interest.
Cincinnati is a decent team this year. Even though Joe Mixon will not be playing in this game, Giovani Bernard should not be viewed as much of a downgrade. Overall, I’d say that if you are betting the spread, wait for a possible move to 3.5 or just stay away from this line.
The over/under is set fairly low at the moment, and with both these teams playing in the bottom 10 in terms of pace this season, I’m not at all surprised. I’d say that I have a slight lean toward the under in this matchup simply due to the pace of these teams, but I don’t feel horribly confident about it.
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-6.5)
Over/under: 39.5
Sunday, September 23, 2018, at 1 p.m. ET
TIAA Bank Field
Jacksonville, FL
My Pick: JAC (-6.5) – rating 8/10
My Pick: Over 39.5 – rating 7/10
Currently, most books have pulled this line for the simple reason that everyone is unsure of the status of Marcus Mariota here. Regardless, this is a simple spot for me. Bet Jacksonville and bet the over here. Don’t overthink it, Jacksonville’s offense is a lot better than people think, even without Leonard Fournette in the game if he doesn’t play, and Jacksonville is a lot better team than people think. Mariota is not a drastic improvement over Blaine Gabbert in Vegas’ eyes, so don’t worry regardless of if he plays or not.
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (-3)
Over/under: 53
Sunday, September 23, 2018, at 1 p.m. ET
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Atlanta, GA
My Pick: NO (+3) – rating 6/10
My Pick: Under 53 – rating 9/10
Last season, these teams failed to combine for 40 points in each matchup. New Orleans may have crushed the over in the first game of this season, but last week they failed to come close. A lot of people are buying into the Saints defense being drastically worse this year, although I don’t see this as the case.
Right now, the public is split on the spread with bets on both sides coming in. This is simply a matchup of to closely matched teams with Atlanta getting the 3-point bump for home-field advantage. This is going to be a close divisional game, so I’m much higher on the Saints simply because of the points. I view this game as a virtual coin flip.
The under here is the great bet. Currently, 71% of the bets have come in on the over and the line has continued to move down at multiple sportsbooks, making me think that the sharps are on the under here as well. As the home team, Atlanta has only hit the over in three of its last nine games. In divisional games, the Falcons have only hit the over in two of their last seven divisional games.
Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens (-5.5)
Over/under: 44
Sunday, September 23, 2018, at 1 p.m. ET
M&T Bank Stadium
Baltimore, MD
My Pick: DEN (+5.5) – rating 7/10
My Pick: Over 44 – rating 9/10
This game features a drastically different Denver team than we’ve seen in the past. Denver is drastically improved on the offensive side of the ball, but they’ve gotten worse on the defensive side. So far this season, Denver has covered in both games, despite their defense being around average so far this year. With the public split on both the spread and the over/under, I’m siding pretty heavily with the Broncos and the over.
These defenses are viewed as juggernauts, but with Baltimore missing their top cornerback still and with the Ravens having faced an easy defensive schedule so far, I believe that they are likely overrated. Expect Denver to win this game outright or for them to keep it close. As for the total, look for both teams to end up in the 20s at the end of this one.
New York Giants and Houston Texans (-6)
Over/under: 42
Sunday, September 23, 2018, at 1 p.m. ET
NRG Stadium
Houston, TX
My Pick: NYG (+6) – rating 2/10
My Pick: Under 42 – rating 4/10
This game opened up with Houston as only a 3-point favorite and was quickly bet up to 6 after the inept showing from the Giants on Sunday night. As it stands right now, both these lines are about where they should be. The Giants haven’t been great and will be going up against a good Houston pass rush. Right now, I’m taking the points with the Giants by the slightest margin and taking the under on 42, considering that both teams have hit the under in 11 of their last 18 games.
Oakland Raiders at Miami Dolphins (-3)
Over/under: 43.5
Sunday, September 23, 2018, at 1 p.m. ET
Hard Rock Stadium
Miami Gardens, FL
My Pick: MIA (-3) – rating 3/10
My Pick: Under 43.5- rating 4/10
This line opened up at -4 for Miami and moved down to -3 fairly quick. That’s where it will likely stay. At the current line, I give the slight edge to Miami and the under strictly because most of the money has been coming in on the other side. There has been some reverse line movement, though. At the moment, I don’t see a huge edge to warrant actual money being placed, but if the line moves to 2.5 this becomes a bettable one for Miami.
Green Bay Packers (-3) at Washington Redskins
Over/under: 45.5
Sunday, September 23, 2018, at 1 p.m. ET
FedExField
Landover, MD
My Pick: WAS (+3) – rating 9/10
My Pick: Under 45.5 – rating 9/10
This line opened up at 2.5 and a total of 47, but even with over 70% of bets coming in for both Green Bay and the over, the line has only moved to -3 for the Packers and there has been some reverse line movement on the total. This is a clear overreaction to how well a hobbled Aaron Rodgers has done in the last two weeks. I’m not buying into this at all.
I am currently taking Washington as the home dog getting 3 points and am hammering the under. All the sharps are on Washington and the under. Those are absolutely the smart bets, as the Redskins have been good this year and Green Bay isn’t going to be nearly as good on the road.
Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings (-17)
Over/under: 41
Sunday, September 23, 2018, at 1 p.m. ET
U.S. Bank Stadium
Minneapolis, MN
My Pick: BUF (+17) – rating 3/10
My Pick: Under 41 – rating 2/10
Anytime I see a line this high, I don’t take the favorite. There are too many things that can happen in the NFL. Although Buffalo has been absolutely terrible this year, 17 points is way too high of a point spread in professional football. With the large majority of the field betting on both Minnesota and the over, I’m rolling with the opposite in both cases but overall this is a stay-away game for me.
San Francisco 49ers at Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5)
Over/under: 55.5
Sunday, September 23, 2018, at 1 p.m. ET
Arrowhead Stadium
Kansas City, MO
My Pick: SF (+6.5) – rating 4/10
My Pick: Under 55.5 – rating 4/10
So far this year, I’ve been really wrong about Kansas City. Really, really wrong. That being said, I still think the Chiefs are due for some regression. Their offense can’t sustain this ridiculous pace for the entirety of the season and their defense is not good enough to stop almost any offense. The majority of the public is on KC this week, and both the total and the spread has moved in that direction 1 point. I’m just strictly going against the public here because the odds are that the Chiefs regress substantially and I agree they will.
Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams (-7)
Over/under: 48
Sunday, September 23, 2018, at 4:05 p.m. ET
LA Memorial Coliseum
Los Angeles, CA
My Pick: LAC (+7) – rating 7/10
My Pick: Under 48 – rating 5/10
I will admit that I am a bit of a Los Angeles Chargers homer, so you can disregard them every time I write them up if you want. After all, I have been completely wrong about them this entire season. The one thing I am pretty sure of is that this team is likely to win or lose by one score. Even though it hasn’t happened this year, last year it was a common occurrence.
The Chargers draw a tough matchup against the cross-town Los Angeles Rams, who just may be the best team in the league, but both these defenses are underrated. Anytime the Chargers are a decent underdog, I will take them. Anytime the Chargers are a decent favorite, I’ll go the other way. Take the points here with the Chargers and take the under, expecting this to be a low-scoring, close game.
Chicago Bears (-6) at Arizona Cardinals
Over/under: 38
Sunday, September 23, 2018, at 4:25 p.m. ET
University of Phoenix Stadium
Glendale, AZ
My Pick: ARI (+6) – rating 4/10
My Pick: Over 38 – rating 4/10
In this game, we have some fairly inept offenses going, with the Arizona Cardinals only scoring one touchdown all year and the Chicago Bears putting up only a small number of points against the not-so-great defenses of Seattle and Green Bay. This year, the public has been really low on Arizona. They have been right to this point, but this offense isn’t as bad as people think.
For this sports bettor, the spread is a little too high and the total is a little too low. Although the public is lining up to bet the Chicago side and although the line has fluctuated between 4.5 and 6, I think that 6 still offers a bit of value. If you want a nice correlation play, you can parlay both the over and the Cardinals, expecting the Cardinals to put up some points if they are going to stay in the game.
Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks (-1)
Over/under: 41.5
Sunday, September 23, 2018, at 4:25 p.m. ET
CenturyLink Field
Seattle, WA
My Pick: SEA (-1.5) – rating 3/10
My Pick: Over 41.5 – rating 7/10
This is the only game on the entire slate that actually has the public betting on the under (62% of the bets have been on the under here). I get why. The Seattle offense has been terrible, the Dallas defense has been pretty good, and Dallas runs the ball so often that they can slow the game down and run out the clock pretty easily. I’m going to fade the public, though, and this is one of the few spots where I like the over and the favorite.
Seattle has kept games close so far this season and playing at home with one of the biggest home-field advantages in the NFL, I’m expecting this to be much higher scoring than people expect and that will favor the Seahawks.
New England Patriots (-6.5) at Detroit Lions
Over/under: 52.5
Sunday, September 23, 2018, at 8:20 p.m. ET
Ford Field,
Detroit, MI
My Pick: NE (-6.5) – rating 7/10
My Pick: Under 52.5 – rating 8/10
Currently, the public is absolutely smashing this game for both New England and the over. While I am against the public and taking the under, I am entirely with them on the Patriots. Last year as road favorites, New England was 6-1 against the spread. Since 2009, the Patriots are 22-10 against the spread after a loss. This is a spot where you don’t bet against Bill Belichick. Even though his team is hurting at the WR position, Bill will draw up enough plays for Josh Gordon (even if only as a distraction) to help them win the game by more than a touchdown.
As for the under, this line started out at 46 and has skyrocketed. I think that at the moment it is just way too high. I’m not buying into either of these teams scoring a lot of points this weekend, with the Patriots lack of offensive depth and their bend-don’t-break defense, this should be a lower scoring game than people expect.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Over/under: 54
Monday, September 24, 2018, at 8:15 p.m. ET
Raymond James Stadium
Tampa, FL
My Pick: PIT (-1) – rating 4/10
My Pick: Under 54 – rating 9/10
So far this season, I don’t think many people can argue that Ryan Fitzpatrick is in the conversation for MVP, but it’s still early in the season and we can’t reasonably expect this to continue. The line here opened up at -2.5 in favor of Pittsburgh and a total of 50. Since then, those lines have quickly moved to Steelers as a 1-point favorite with a game total of 54. To me, this is another spot where people have just been overreacting to what Tampa Bay has done this year.
Even though they have yet to win this season, Pittsburgh is absolutely the better team. The Buccaneers offense, while flying high, isn’t nearly this good. The large majority of the bets coming in have been on both Tampa Bay and the over. In my belief, the original lines set are the ones that were correct. While there isn’t a whole lot of value in Pittsburgh moving 1.5 points, there is huge value in a 4-point move for the over/under. Hammer this line before the sharps go and do it.