RotoTalk: Whether Weather Matters
Being a successful daily fantasy baseball player forces you to be at least semi-competent in several areas: statistics, trends, splits, ballpark familiarity, among others. Perhaps the most over-rated among them is taking on the role of amateur weatherman. Sure, in the instance where the forecast says “rain – 100%” for a 6-hour window around game time, that’s probably a game to avoid. But what should you do with the dreaded “showers – 50%?” The answer to that is, “it depends.”
Postponability
Okay, so that probably isn’t a word, but when assessing an ambiguous weather situation, you should really consider how inconvenient a postponement would be. Games early in the season among division rivals are much more easily rescheduled since the visiting team likely makes at least one more trip to town whereas an interleague game is pretty much a one-shot opportunity. To reschedule an inter-league game would require the teams having a mutual off day. The more difficult the game will be to reschedule, the more likely the team and umpires will endure a lengthy delay or two in an effort to get the game in.
We covered a brief example above, but here is a more general list of criteria to consider:
More likely to be postponed:
Division Game – multiple opportunities for doubleheaders
First or second game of a series – can reschedule a doubleheader for the following day
Game before a mutual off-day for the teams involved – can play the game tomorrow
Less likely to be postponed:
Games in a one-time series (i.e. interleague), especially the last game of such series
Day Game – Travel plans notwithstanding, they have all day to get the game in…and it is unlikely to rain all day
Over-rated
Earlier I said that handicapping the weather is one of the most over-rated factors in daily fantasy baseball. First of all, it’s by far the least exact “science” of your daily prep. “Professional” meteorologists struggle to get their weather predictions right, so what hope do we amateurs have? Exactly. Plus, the 2011 season featured 54 total rainouts (2.2% of all games)…and that was the most in several years. Simply put, rainouts are rare and except in extreme circumstances, trying to read the tea leaves of weather radar probably isn’t worth your time. How many times have you let an ominous weather report talk you off of a player that went on to have a great game? I’m guessing that scenario is more common than getting actually burned by a rain out.
What’s a little rain anyway?
So, who really gets hurt in the event of lengthy rain delays? Simply put: pitchers. So long as hitters get their at-bats, they’ll get their shot to produce. A lengthy delay, especially mid-game, will likely end a starting pitcher’s night early. Heck, you could argue that rain delays are actually beneficial to hitters in that they might get additional at-bats against middle relievers. Who wouldn’t want Ryan Braun to get two shots at Livan Hernandez and Chad Durbin as opposed to Brandon Beachy?
GPP Differentiation
Players involved in games with disturbing weather forecasts are often avoided en masse. What better way to get a leg up on the competition in a large-field contest than to take a guy that people are avoiding? Think about being the only guy in a 100-man field using Joey Votto against a hack like Chris Volstad. That’s a pretty good scenario, right? Sure, you’re gambling that the game gets played, but if some of the above criteria suggest a rescheduling would be difficult and precipitation is forecast in the 40%-60% range, it’s worth a shot. Remember, a 40% chance of rain suggests a 60% chance of no rain. Playing starting pitchers in these situations is more dicey, but I strongly endorse grabbing a few soggy sluggers.
Things Change
I would absolutely recommend not checking the weather any more than an hour before game time. The weather report at 9 AM may look dire, but end up sunny at game time. Think about yesterday’s Yankees/Braves game. At noon that game looked all but postponed, but they played all 9 without a pause.
And now, a lineup…
At press time, tonight’s Pirates/Orioles game is showing a 60% chance of rain during gametime. If there is a game to be postponed, that’s the one, especially with tomorrow’s forecast being dry and this being day 1. Of course, we don’t make final lineup decisions at press time. My lineup for tonight is below:
| Pos | Player | Price | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP | Max Scherzer | 262k | Strikeout pitcher facing the Cubs. Should be tasty. |
| 1B | Joey Votto | 124k | I’ll happily pay 124k for the NL’s best hitter against Jeanmar Gomez |
| 2B | Brandon Phillips | 93k | Call it the Gomez effect. Phillips is swinging a better bat of late. |
| 3B | David Freese | 77k | Historically rakes lefties. Jose Quintana doesn’t scare me, especially at this price. |
| SS | Derek Jeter | 91k | Killing left-handed pitching and Mike Minor is a terrible lefty. |
| OF | Jose Bautista | 113k | What’s not to like about Joey Bats facing Chien-Ming Wang ? |
| OF | Josh Reddick | 88k | Coors Field. Jeremy Guthrie. Tasty. |
| OF | Jay Bruce | 96k | One more time: Jeanmar Gomez. |
| C | Josh Thole | 50k | League minimum for a .280 hitting catcher. No power here, but unlikely to get blanked either. |
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