White Sox vs. Astros Odds, Prediction & Preview for ALDS Game 1
White Sox vs. Astros Odds
| White Sox Odds | +116 |
| Astros Odds | -136 |
| Over/Under | 7.5 |
| Date | Thursday, Oct. 7 |
| Time | 4:07 p.m. |
| TV | FS1 |
On Thursday afternoon, the Chicago White Sox and the Houston Astros will battle in the American League Division Series at Minute Maid Park. Entering play, Chicago has won six of their last seven games. Houston has won four of their last six contests. In Game 1, the White Sox will send Lance Lynn to the hill. He will be opposed by Lance McCullers. Oddsmakers are anticipating the Astros securing a victory, pricing Houson as -136 home favorites.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Chicago White Sox (+116)
In 28 starts this year for Chicago, Lynn was excellent with a 2.69 ERA, 2.59 xERA, and a 3.32 FIP. Amongst qualified pitchers, he ranked in the 69th percentile or better in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, xwOBA, xERA, xBA, xSLG, barrel-rate, strikeout and walk percentage. He was even better when he was pitching on the road in 2021 compared to at home. In away games, he posted a 3.12 FIP and a 1.21 WHIP. Since the beginning of September, Lynn owns a 3.38 ERA and a 2.56 FIP. He should have another strong outing on Thursday.
Over the final month of the regular season, the White Sox ranked ninth in OPS, 23rd in ISO, fifth in walk-rate, and ninth in strikeout percentage at the plate. Chicago has no shortage of big names in their lineup, but this offense was less than spectacular after the All-Star break. It is possible that this group coasted over the final few months of the regular season with the American League Central division title never in doubt. Still, they will need to be better in October if they want an opportunity to play for a championship.
The trade deadline acquisition of Craig Kimbrel immediately put this relief unit into the conversation for the best bullpen in Major League Baseball. Since the beginning of September this group ranked first in the league by a wide margin in bullpen FIP at 2.99. Chicago has not played since Sunday, so expect everyone to be available and for Manager Tony La Russa to be extremely aggressive with his relievers if Lynn struggles at all.
Houston Astros (-136)
After missing the entire 2019 season due to injury, McCullers was less than spectacular in 55.0 innings in 2020. However, he reasserted himself as one of the better pitchers in baseball with a 3.16 ERA, 3.39 xERA, and a 3.52 FIP across 162.1 innings of work in 2021. He ranked in the 72nd percentile or better in xwOBA, xERA, xBA, xSLG, barrel-rate, strikeout percentage, and whiff rate. Both his curveball and slider have held opponents to below a .150 batting average this season. Expect McCullers to be dominant on Thursday.
Houston has received less favorable media coverage since their sign-stealing scandal, but they still have an elite lineup—whether that is widely talked about or not. Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez, Carlos Correa, Yuli Gurriel, Jose Altuve, Michael Brantley, and Alex Bregman combine to form arguably the most formidable offensive attack in the postseason. Over the final month of the regular season, Houston ranked fourth in OPS, fifth in ISO, 12th in walk-rate, and third in strikeout percentage. Despite having a tough task against Lynn in this matchup, they should be able to generate some run-scoring opportunities.
If there are any concerns surrounding the Astros, they center on their ability to close-out games. Since September 1, Houston’s relief corps ranks only 20th in bullpen FIP. They have walked an alarmingly-high 12.4 percent of opposing hitters during this stretch, which is the second-worst mark in the league. Similar to the White Sox, the Astros have not played since Sunday, so everyone should be rested and available for Manager Dusty Baker in this one.
White Sox vs. Astros ALDS Game 1 Picks
Since the beginning of the 2019 campaign, Minute Maid Park has produced the fifth-most offensive of any ballpark in Major League Baseball in day games. More often than not in the postseason, when good offense and good pitching collide, the smart wager is on the pitching to prevail. However, in this contest, the pitching is not as elite as we have seen the previous two days in the Wild Card games. Lynn and McCullers have both been excellent in 2021, but both have extremely tough assignments against elite opposing lineups. A small play on the over could be a profitable endeavor.
PICK: Over 7.5 (-110)
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