XFL Week 5 Lines, Betting Picks & Predictions

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We’re nearly halfway through the XFL season. Unsurprisingly, XFL lines are becoming more efficient at US sportsbooks, and so too is DFS pricing at DraftKings and FanDuel. Let’s take a closer look at XFL Week 5 lines, betting picks and predictions.

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XFL 2020 Betting Picks Record: 13-6

XFL Week 1 (2-0)
XFL Week 2 (6-1)
XFL Week 3 (4-2)
XFL Week 4 (1-3)

Updated 2020 XFL Championship Odds – Week 5

All odds are courtesty of FanDuel Sportsbook and accurate as of Friday, March 6, 2020.

Note: You can find better odds on some long shots at PointsBet. There, you can find the Defenders +800, Vipers +2200 and Dragons +4000 (Sign up at PointsBet to get these odds).

As we’ll expand on later, the Defenders’ recent play is pretty concerning, especially if you bet on them while they were the favorite to win the 2020 XFL Championship.

I still think the Roughnecks and Battlehawks are a tier above the rest, so I don’t particularly see much value on trying to find an XFL dark horse.

XFL Week 5 Betting Picks for Saturday

Seattle Dragons at Houston Roughnecks -12.5, O/u 46

2 p.m. ET on ABC

The Seattle Dragons (1-3) saw a boost in their offense as they tried to mount a comeback in the second half against the St. Louis BattheHawks. The offense showed progress as BJ Daniels was called upon to take over for Brandon Silvers. Silvers struggled in the first half, much like he had through the first three weeks.

The Dragons will need more than just a boost against the undefeated Houston Roughnecks. To the Dragons’ benefit, the Roughnecks will be down one if not two receivers. As of Friday, Sammie Coates is officially ruled out for Saturday’s game against the Dragons. Khalil Lewis is the other receiver whose status is in question.

The biggest question in this matchup, however, is what the Dragons will do at quarterback. Though Daniels clearly looked better than Silvers, Jim Zorn has only said that Daniels “will see playing time as we go along.”

Is Zorn seriously contemplating sticking with Silvers or is this merely gamesmanship from Seattle’s head coach?

I lean towards the latter. Daniels is a dual-threat quarterback, as his 84 rushing yards on seven carries in the second half proved. It makes sense that Zorn would want to keep the Roughnecks’ coaching staff guessing. They’ll need any edge they can find against the best team in the XFL.

With Daniels inserted in the offense, I think 12.5 points is too much to lay.

I don’t think it’s so much because Seattle will slow down the Roughnecks; I think Seattle can keep up, at least relatively speaking. This lends itself to the Over as well.

XFL Betting Pick: Seattle +12.5; Over 46

New York Guardians vs. Dallas Renegades -7, O/U 37

5 p.m. ET on FOX

The Dallas Renegades turned the ball over three times in the first half, but still managed to give the Roughnecks a run for their money in Week 4.

Unfortunately, the game isn’t the only thing the Renegades lost. Quarterback Landry Jones went down with a knee injury on a quarterback sneak in the fourth quarter. Now head coach Bob Stoops will turn to the quarterback who started the season while Jones was previously sidelined.

In Philip Nelson’s first start, the Renegades struggled to move their pass-happy offense. In fact, Dallas didn’t reach the end zone with Nelson at the helm. Instead, they settled for three field goals against the St. Louis BattleHawks.

In hindsight, the Week 1 loss isn’t as bad as previously thought. The BattleHawks are now the favorites to win the XFL East. Another reason for optimism is that Nelson did successfully lead the Renegades to the five-yard line, giving the Dallas a chance to tie, or possibly beat, the Houston Roughnecks. You’ll see a fumble on behalf of Nelson in the box score, but it was really a fluke interception from a screen pass that the receiver couldn’t handle.

Speaking of quarterback problems, we don’t know whether the New York Guardians will stick with Luis Perez or turn back to Matt McGloin. Regardless of who is at quarterback, the Guardians have struggled to score. They’re dead last in points scored among the eight XFL teams.

I’m not sold on the Renegades’ offense with Nelson playing quarterback, and there’s nothing to buy from the Guardians. This will be a painful game to watch. The remedy? Bet on the Under.

XFL Betting Pick: Under 37

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XFL Week 5 Betting Picks for Sunday

St. Louis BattleHawks vs. DC Defenders +5.5, O/U 38.5

3 p.m. ET on FS1

The DC Defenders were early-season XFL Championship favorites and started 2-0. However, the last two weeks have left very little reason for optimism for DC fans. Cardale Jones has stuggled as the Defenders have dropped two games in a row. The offense, led by Jones, only found the end zone once during that same span.

Turnovers have been one of the biggest problems for the Defenders in recent weeks. They’ve turned the ball over six times in their two losses, which doesn’t bode well against a St. Louis defense that ranks 2nd according to Pro Football Focus.

The St. Louis BattleHawks, on the other hand, are the hottest team not named the Roughnecks. In fact, their lone loss came at the hands of the Roughnecks in Week 2.

Jordan Ta’amu has been one of the more impressive quarterbacks in the league, passing efficiently and keeping defenses guessing while using his legs.

The Defenders are a hot mess, but I think the turnovers come to an end on Sunday. They’ll be at home in for the first time in three weeks, while St. Louis is making their longest road trip yet. I like the Defenders to at least keep this within the spread.

XFL Betting Pick: DC Defenders +5.5

Tampa Bay Vipers at Los Angeles Wildcats -3, O/U 41.5

9 p.m. ET on ESPN

After a rough 0-3 start, the Tampa Bay Vipers are coming off their first win of the season. The Vipers began finding the end zone in their 27-34 loss to the Roughnecks. Their offensive momentum continued as the beat the Defenders 25-0.

Taylor Cornelius looked much more comfortable in his second start, and I expect Tampa Bay’s offense to find more scoring opportunity to score against the Los Angeles Wildcats. Only the New York Guardians have a worse defensive grade than the Wildcats, per PFF. In terms of run defense, the Wildcats rank dead last. Meanwhile, the Vipers have one of the top rushing attacks in the XFL. The Vipers also play at a fast pace.

The Vipers’ pace of play coupled by a formidable LA offense will help this game go Over 41.5 points at DraftKings Sportbook, which is one point lower than at FanDuel. Additionally, I like what I saw from Cornelius last week. I think the Vipers have a chance to pull off the upset, so I’ll take the three points.

XFL Betting Pick: Vipers +3; Over 41.5

For more general XFL betting tips, check out our XFL Football Betting Guide.

Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images

About the Author

schmitto
Matt Schmitto (schmitto)

Matt Schmitto is an Organic Strategy Lead for Better Collective. He was introduced to daily fantasy sports in 2012 and soon became a member at RotoGrinders. Seven years later, Schmitto joined RotoGrinders Network full time as a staff writer shortly after the Supreme Court overturned PASPA. He has since covered important stories in the sports betting and fantasy sports industries for sites like SportsHandle and USBets and has had roles as a sports betting editor and commercial content manager. He continues to play DFS and loves placing Futures bets at sportsbooks. His favorite DFS sites are DraftKings, Underdog Fantasy, and PrizePicks. Follow Schmitto on Twitter – @Matt_Schmitto